NBA's "Race" to the "MVP"
1. Melo 2. Pierce 3. Kobe 4. Wade 5. Howard 6. Nash 7. Joe Johnson 8. Ariza 9. Bosh 10. LeBron
HAHAHAHAHAH
about 2 hours ago
atthehive
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Game 6: Hive Live
Toronto 107 (3-2) | New Orleans 90 (2–4)
Oof. That wasn't pretty.
The game was actually pretty close throughout the first half, but then the Raptors (who are the third highest scoring team this year) went bananas in the second half, shooting almost sixty percent and draining what felt like an endless barrage of threes (they finished with 14 to our 6... but they made theirs 50% of the time to our 30%). Credit the Raptors for shooting so well, but don't forget to thank the Hornet's new defensive scheme called "the sieve."
But seriously, though we did look pretty helpless on defense, the Raptors were simply on fire. For instance, there were several series where Emeka played Bosh really well on D giving him no space and always getting a hand in his face during shots. But Bosh seemed to sink every one of his shots anyway. And when I say every one, I mean every one. Bosh was a perfect 10 for 10 on the night (including a trey) and also managed 8 for 11 from the stripe. The guy was an absolute beast.
Our offense, on the other hand, looked so ineffective on the court that I was surprised when I looked at the box score and saw that we shot 48% from the field. If we could just cut down on the turnovers and play something that resembles defense once in a while, we might actually start winning games. You know, like in a row.
Bullets after the jump.
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Mo-Pete Hops in the Delorean
Morris Peterson has always been the definition of a fringe starter. There are reasons to sit him, but there are also some reasons to start him. And perhaps chief among those is the way he fits into most any offense. Nobody wants an invisible player on the court, but nobody wants the 5th man to stick out any either. For much of his career, Mo struck that balance well.
Five miserable performances into the 09-10 season, is his time in that role over?
A trip down memory lane may be in order to predict his future.
For starters, the precipitous decline in PER over the past 5 years is ominous.
2006: 15.3
2007: 13.2
2008: 11.2
2009: 10.7
2010: 7.2 (5 Games)
It's not entirely unexpected either; wings in the mold of Mo-Pete tend to fade and fade hard as they hit their 30's. Two of Mo's most comparable players are George McCloud and Jaren Jackson... which is never a good thing. But while PER can be useful for comparing high value players, it often needs additional corroboration in its measure low value players who exist in different playing systems.
For example, in Toronto, Peterson's scoring role was far more pronounced. He averaged more than 3 FTA/36. In the long run, this seems pretty mediocre. Given Mo was averaged just around 10 FGA/game, though, it speaks to his more creative role. Upon his arrival in New Orleans, Peterson was transformed exclusively into a spot shooter. As much as people associate "Princeton offense" with Byron Scott (and others on that New Jersey staff, like Eddie Jordan), Peterson's role was hardly one characterized by off the ball cuts to the hoop. It was him hanging out on the corners or the wing, hoping for the kickout. It's only natural that his overall value would diminish in this system.
But how does one explain away Mo's decline with the Hornets? Changing system is one thing, but as we're all familiar with, the Hornets run virtually the same offense they did when Mo arrived.
The answer lies hidden in his floor percentages. Oddly enough, even as Mo's three point ability has remained stable, he's become a very poor two point shooter.
| Year | 2P% | 3P% |
| 2007 | 52.3 | 35.9 |
| 2008 | 44.5 | 39.4 |
| 2009 | 40.8 | 38.8 |
Clearly, his skills are in decline. He can hit the standstill three, but he can't do much else at all. Then again, the Hornets need Peterson to literally do only two things: (1) make open threes and (2) perimeter defense.
Mo has looked awful to start the year because both those things, arguably, haven't been there. In terms of defense, images of Rodrigue Beaubois blowing by him on four consecutive possessions still lingers in my mind. But in a relative sense, who else do we have defensively? James Posey has lost a step on the perimeter; leaving him on small forwards and power forwards is easily our best bet moving forward. I'm more than willing to give Peterson some more time to evaluate his defense. The three point shooting? He's been poor; however, it's 5 games, and it certainly looks like statistically insignificant.
In the 9 years prior this season, Mo's three point percentage has never deviated outside of the 30-40% range. It hasn't come close to the low end since a poor third season in the league. Basketball Prospectus' projection system has him very similar to last year. Basically, it's too early to say that Mo has lost his three point shot; in fact, all signs point to the contrary. It's the one aspect of his game he's kept as he ages, and the one aspect he's likely to keep for a while longer.
The moral of the story: Morris Peterson may be done as an average basketball player, but in the role the Hornets have created for him, he still has value. The numbers say his shot will recover, without much doubt. His contract runs till 2011, and the two aspects of his game we utilize most- shooting and perimeter defending- will remain until then. Off the bench, the value of both those things plummets. He no longer has Chris Paul to create threes for him, and his perimeter defense is inherently less valuable if he guards the opposition's bench.
I'm all for Marcus Thornton getting minutes (as Byron has alluded to recently). From a relative value added sense though, I think it makes more sense to bring Thornton off the bench. From what we've seen of him at LSU, he doesn't need Chris Paul as much as Mo does. And Mo is the far safer defensive bet at this point. Essentially, Thornton can (potentially) do things off the bench that Mo cannot; on the flip side, Thornton's creative ability is diminished as the fifth starter.
Projecting Mo's future is tough; defending his recent play is even tougher. For all his struggles though, there still isn't a better fifth starter option on this roster.
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George Shinn Has Prostate Cancer
"NEW ORLEANS -- The owner of the New Orleans Hornets has announced that he has cancer.
George Shinn made the announcement in a news release Friday that he was recently diagnosed with prostate cancer. Shinn says he remains healthy and is optimistic that he will conquer the disease."
Best wishes to the Shinn family for a speedy recovery.
How The West Is Won; Melo, Artest, and Other Stories
This should be the first in a weekly series documenting prominent stories in our conference.
Carmelo Anthony started his first 4 games ridiculously hot, before shooting 8-24 last night. It's ridiculously early, but he's drawn plenty of potential MVP talk nonetheless. A 31.1 PER, 36.2% usage, and 32 ppg will do that for you (well, unless you're Chris Paul, in which case it will earn you this). It's rather easy to see that Melo's base numbers are pretty unsustainable and a product of a small sample size. 47% three point shooting by a career 30% shooter. 12 trips to the line per 36 minutes vs. an average 8. A turnover rate slashed in half. Simple probability dictates that Melo will come down to Earth. But interestingly, his Nuggets team may truly be as good as they're playing. Chauncey and Nene have picked up where they left off. And like everyone but GM's predicted, Ty Lawson has been stellar.
Artest on the Lakers
I don't care that the Lakers have 4 wins in 5 games; they can't be happy with their play thus far. The offense has been downright mediocre, with offensive rebounding the only thing holding it up. Now Pau Gasol is out, but a team with Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom, and Ron Artest playing marginally better offense than the Clippers? They've squeaked by the Hawks, Thunder, Rockets, and Hawks, with a convincing loss to Dallas mixed in. And the initial returns on Ron Artest? Not good, despite what ESPN and everyone else wants you to believe. The one, monumental question all offseason was how Artest's efficiency would adapt, with a lower usage rate. Right now, he has the lowest usage rate of his career (16.3%), almost ten (!) percent lower than last season. And, huh, his PER has also plummeted to the lowest of his career by far. I assume Gasol's return will only serve to take further possessions from Ron. Yes, this is only 5 games, but Artest is not Ariza, no matter how much L.A. tries to stuff him into that role.
Steve Nash
Steve Nash is surprising a lot of people with the way he ages. He's still shooting and passing extremely effectively. As Hornet fans, I think we'll never truly appreciate Nash's game. Much of that is because we have a point guard who's way better than him, but has 2 fewer MVP's. So that bitterness will always persist. But Nash is playing basketball at a level that no 35 year old should be able to.. and minus Shaq, the Suns are actually watchable again.
Houston
The NBA statistical community has long had one very unsettled debate- what exactly is the value of shot creation? Everyone realizes that unefficient players could very well be undervalued by figures like PER, because shot creation is very much a basketball skill, in the style of speed or court vision. Everybody realizes that shot creation is valuable, but how valuable is another question altogether. In light of that debate, Daryl Morey has concocted the perfect test tube in Texas- a collection of high efficiency, lower usage (and lower shot creation) players. With Tracy McGrady out, this effect is just exacerbated. As Houston continues to force feed Ariza into taking shots, it's becoming more and more clear that Ariza is no #1 option. It's early, but the initial returns on Houston's experiment look positive. They've played the Lakers to within a point, played Portland close, and also beaten them, Golden State, and Utah.
Houston really isn't your typical anonymous team; their play this year could really change the way teams are constructed. Their first five have not disappointed.
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Elias: Hornets Have 3rd Longest Winning Streak in OT
It took an extra period, but the Hornets defeated the Mavericks on Wednesday.
New Orleans has won its past 10 overtime games at home, dating back to 2006. That's the third-longest streak in NBA history. The Knicks won 14 straight home OT games from 1988-92, and the Rockets had an 11-game streak from 1976-80.
2 days ago
hldomingue
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Game 5: Hive Live
Dallas 107 (3–2) | New Orleans 114 (2–3)
Great game. Any win at all would have been acceptable; however, the Hornets dialed it up a notch and found a way to win even in the face of adversity (aka Dallas, which is a way better team than Sacramento).
After flying out the gates and finishing the first with an 8 point lead, the Hornets started to sag while the Mavs, who started cold, began hitting open looks all over the court. The lead continued to change hands for the rest of the game until the end, when the Mavs were up 4 with 16 seconds to play to play. Things looked pretty bleak from section 325, and the Hornets seemed to be headed to yet another loss; a hard fought loss, yes, but a loss all the same.
One CP offensive foul and 4 missed Dallas free throws later, the Hornets find themselves down by 3 with 9 seconds to play and deem Peja "0 for the night and then some" Stojakovic the man to fire the tying shot... and he drains it. Un.be.lieve.able.
The Mavs went ice cold in OT, and really, that's all she wrote. The Hornets finished the contest with the advantage in every statistical category but blocks and three-point percentage. Perhaps the most important part was the Hornets owning the paint in the second half. They were able to penetrate and out duel the Mavs to the tune of 26 to 14 down low.
Bullets after the jump.
13 comments | 0 recs |













































































