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Southwest Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
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San Antonio
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54 | 28 | .658 | 0 | Lost 3 |
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53 | 29 | .646 | 1 | Lost 1 |
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50 | 32 | .609 | 4 | Lost 1 |
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New Orleans
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49 | 33 | .597 | 5 | Lost 2 |
| Memphis | 24 | 58 | .292 | 30 | Won 1 |
(updated 7.2.2009 at 2:36 PM CDT)
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Random Thoughts
by atthehive
on Jul 2, 2009 8:00 AM CDT
in News
1 comment
- Re: the Pistons deal. Detroit suddenly adds a ton of firepower, getting two ~18 PER guys that can contribute on the court at the same time. The biggest issue seems to be where the pieces will fit together. I'm assuming Joe Dumars would like a lineup of Rodney Stuckey/Ben Gordon/Richard Hamilton to be on the floor together at points, but that'd be a tiny starting backcourt and wing. Villanueva can't match up with some of the more physical power forwards, and where does this put Tayshaun Prince? There's probably a good argument in here somewhere that Detroit isn't done moving pieces around.
- Re: Paul Millsap. Am I the only one that thinks he'd be worth every penny of the 10 million he's asking? I know Utah would ideally minimize their spending on him, given their cap situation, but it seems like a lot of the argument is that Millsap is inherently not worth that much anyway. A 24 year old with his rebounding and scoring ability, with no injury history? Seems worth it to me. Another question would be: why can't a team way under the cap go and offer Millsap a huge contract- let's say 15-20 million- and force Utah to seriously consider not bringing him back? (I might be missing some RFA contract max here, but I can't recall any).
- Jason Kidd will be 36 years old next March, his turnover rates have been uncontrollably high for the last four years, and he can only match up defensively against shooting guards (which he's decent at, but still). So why do the latest rumors have teams lining up to offer him 3 and 4 year contracts? He'd be 40 at the end of a 4 year deal. I can't see him starting for a good team, for more than another two seasons. I know so many people called Kidd overrated a couple years ago that he almost bordered on becoming underrated (a reverse David West)... but has the pendulum swung back the other way now? Depends on the dollars he's given, but it looks like a possibility.
- Lots of athletes have been killing it on Twitter, but one that definitely hasn't is Amar'e. First, he uses Twitter as a free advertising service for his Amar'e Credit Card or whatever the hell it was. Then, when he finally starts Twittering properly, he sends out fake trade rumors. Sort of amusing the first time, lame the second.
- Anyways, that's it for now. I'm going to be out of town till next Tuesday. The last time I was out of town for an extended time, we signed James Posey. So, uh, let's pray something like that doesn't happen again. If any news breaks, have at it in the FanPosts/FanShots, and I'm sure Lee and Junsier will take care of it in terms of coverage. I've scheduled a couple posts- one on Darren Collison and one on Marcus Thornton- to autopublish themselves on Saturday and Monday respectively. Later.
1 comment
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Clippers to trade Zach Randolph
This could have huge implications on our rumored sending of various large contracts (Daniels, Peja) for Marcus Camby. By extension, that could have an effect on whether we move Tyson Chandler to Phoenix. Ultimately, it has to lessen the chances at least a little bit.
about 20 hours ago
atthehive
1 comment
0 recs
Trading Tyson Chandler
by atthehive
on Jun 29, 2009 2:00 PM CDT
in Analysis
15 comments
The Tyson Chandler to Phoenix trade rumors that started on draft day are simply refusing to die out. I've been hearing vague things from non-Hornet sources, but a poster on HornetsReport (who also posted on draft day that the Hornets had serious interest in Collison) offers far more clarity.
"... [E]xpect these moves in the next 2-3 weeks.
1.) TC for Ben Wallace
Devin might be a part of the deal too although it is not a deal breaker either way but the Hornets have no use for him this year so they want to dump him in the trade. The only reason this trade hasnt gone through yet is because of Phoenix's holdup with the Amare trade. That is their #1 priority right now but both teams want to get the TC for Wallace trade done.Last I heard... Hornets would love to do something between 3-5 million and he wants at least 8. So if this trade doesnt go down, that is the most likely reason."
I'd heard the same on the buyout hangup, but these concrete numbers are very interesting. It allows us to calculate the financial implications with a good degree of accuracy.
15 comments
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The Shopping List
by atthehive
on Jun 28, 2009 7:03 PM CDT
in Analysis
11 comments
I took a look at our budget last post (1-2 million dollars to sign one player). Now, let's assess what people are going to cost.
I've tried to include every front court free agents (UFA and RFA) that I could find here, but if I missed any, let me know. Big thanks to this list from Depressed Fan and to ESPN player pages. Quick explanation of the table: Restricted refers to UFA/RFA status, competitors refers to projected number of teams that want the player, Salary projection is my estimation of the player's market value, and target refers to whether New Orleans can reasonably target the player (in parantheses is an explanation of why (expensive, etc)).
The full 50 player table after the jump.
11 comments
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The Budget
by atthehive
on Jun 27, 2009 4:13 PM CDT
in Analysis
19 comments
So now what? The draft is done, but there are holes to be filled. I figure I'll split up free agency into a couple of posts- The Budget, and the Shopping List.
So what have we got left to spend?
Not a whole lot. Before starting, I need to mention that these analyses would not have been possible without the salary information of wyn at Canis Hoopus. Extraordinarily useful stuff. (And by the way, non-Hornets related, but this is an amazing read on the Ricky Rubio situation).
Here's how our current salary situation shakes out:
| Player | Dollars (in millions) |
| Chris Paul | 13.8 |
| Peja Stojakovic | 13.4 |
| Tyson Chandler | 12.3 |
| David West | 9.1 |
| Antonio Daniels | 6.6 |
| James Posey | 6.0 |
| Morris Peterson | 6.0 |
| Rasual Butler | 3.9 |
| Hilton Armstrong | 2.8 |
| Julian Wright | 2.0 |
| Devin Brown | 1.1 |
| Darren Collison | 1.1 |
| Marcus Thornton | 0.4 |
| Free Agent #1 | --- |
| Free Agent #2 | --- |
Hornets Total |
78, 449, 353 |
Projected Salary Cap |
57, 300, 000 |
Projected Luxury Tax |
70, 000, 000 |
At first glance, this doesn't look great.* We're about 21 million over the projected cap and about 8 million over the projected luxury. While the cap figure has no relevance (we already knew we would be way over the cap no matter what), most project a 1 to 2 million dollar decrease from last year's 58.68 mil (wyn's projection has it at 57.3 as noted above).
*Two things to note: Collison's salary is derived from the 09-10 rookie salary scale, and I'm operating under the assumption that Thornton will be signed.
19 comments
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I was saying that was out the window. I thought, ‘I won’t be in town, I’ll have to settle for out of town.’ All of them just ran in and jumped on me and said, ‘You’re going to the Hornets.’ I said, ‘Y’all quit playing.’ -Marcus Thornton
5 days ago
atthehive
0 comments
0 recs
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Collison
by atthehive
on Jun 26, 2009 2:08 AM CDT
in Analysis
17 comments
Lots of haterade being drunk in re: this Darren Collison fellow ("9th best PG", etc).
You know what? It was a great pick. This really isn't spin or anything. Last thing I'm going to do is spin the Hornets' front office after the disaster that was Summer 2008.
First, consider the options. It was down to DeJuan Blair or a point guard. Marcus Thornton wasn't in the equation at 21, because no other teams valued him that high. If the Hornets really wanted him that high, they'd have traded down and gotten a 2nd rounder tossed their way. Internally, the front office had made the Blair vs. point guard decision (which turned out to be the right call, as Thornton hung around till 43).
Let's start with Blair. I was super high on him. His rebound rates were mind-boggling, he'd dominated a 7 footer in Thabeet before, and he had apparently gotten into terrific shape. When the decision was made to pass him over, I was startled. Blair filled our biggest need, and some statistics indicated he might be the second best big in the entire draft. How could you possible pass on that? I was not a happy camper.
Then Portland- widely rumored to have traded up to get him- passed on him. Sacramento passed on him. Dallas passed on him. Oklahoma City passed on him. Chicago- widely rumored to be drafting Blair at 16- passed on him at 26. Even the staunchest advocate of Blair had to have recognized something here. And then ten more teams passed. Fifteen times in all, he was passed over. There's some identified or unidentified issue with Blair that teams are scared of. It might be his knees. It might be the fact that his ACL's are supposedly not visible in MRIs do not exist. It might that people don't think his sudden and huge weight loss is sustainable. It might be that he lived on a mostly junk food diet for most of his college career. Sure, the Spurs wound up taking him. They've been absolute geniuses at drafting. But this smells more of "he couldn't have dropped any lower" than it does of the Spurs knowing something nobody else does. The Hornets came to the same conclusion that more than half the NBA did. This includes teams that worked him out multiple times, with enough scrutiny to considering drafting him in the lottery. I trust in that collective wisdom.
Second, let me address the "8th or 9th best point guard" deal. Collison was absolutely not the 8th or 9th best point guard in this draft. He was the 8th or 9th most hyped point guard in this draft. Huge, huge difference. For two straight years, he'd lost his buzz to more famous backcourt mates at UCLA- Russell Westbrook and Jrue Holiday.
Comparison time.
Player A: 49% eFG, 27% threes, 31% FT/pos, 53% true shooting, 23% ast/pos, 21% TO/pos
Player B: 57% eFG, 40% threes, 29% FT/pos, 62% true shooting, 38% ast/pos, 20% TO/pos
Who ya got?
17 comments
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Draft Day Open Thread
by atthehive
on Jun 25, 2009 4:15 PM CDT
97 comments
It sounds like something could be coming. I'll post updates in this story:
11:31 EST- Bright Side of the Sun: "The word from a few places that haven't yet risen to more prominent sources is that the Suns want to now trade Wallace's contract to the New Orleans Hornets for Tyson Chandler."
4:32 EST- Real GM: "While there is no truth to the possibility of Amare Stoudemire being moved to Houston in a package for Tracy McGrady, Ben Wallace could be flipped to New Orleans for Tyson Chandler.
Wallace is an expiring $14 million contract that could also provide the Suns more immediate financial relief with a buyout (although he would still count as a $14 million salary for luxury tax purposes). Chandler's contract goes into the 2010-11 season at about $13 million."
UPDATE: Merging this into the Open Draft Thread.
5:42 EST- ESPN: Not an update per se, but there's a lot of news that Ben Wallace will be retiring. His quote from May: "Nothing's definite, but there's a strong possibility that this was my last season." So if a deal does get done, a buyout will probably be performed immediately. Very raw figures here, but the Hornets would cut about 12 million in cap, bringing them to ~64 million total.
5:46 EST- Yahoo!: "Sources say that Louisville’s Terrence Williams is back in the mix with the Nets at No. 11. He’s on the short list with North Carolina’s Tyler Hansbrough and Duke’s Gerald Henderson." NJ was one of three majorly rumored destinations for DeJuan Blair. With Carter gone, it looks more and more like they'll gamble on Williams.
5:59 EST- Hoopsworld: "Nobody from the Eric Maynor camp is expecting him to be on board past the 20's. The Indiana Pacers are considering him at 13, but could also go with either Brandon Jennings or Ty Lawson. It's unexpected for Maynor to fall past 19 to the Atlanta Hawks, unless they opt for Jeff Teague instead."
6:01 EST- According to a person in the know, Chandler to Suns would probably only go down if the Suns' 14 overall pick were included. Phoenix doesn't appear likely to include that, given their recent history of trading away picks that turned into terrific players.
6:21 EST- Of course, right after I do a post about three new possibilities, Chad Ford brings up a new one. He has BJ Mullens slotted into the 21st spot in his latest mock. Quick thoughts on Mullens: awful passer, loses the ball a ton, mediocre rebounder, runs the floor, good touch around the hoop, good size for getting position. He'd def be a project pick... not as bad as a lot of Hornets fans are making out to be though.
6:31 EST- RealGM: Amare to Golden State. No word on the players involved, but it seems a done deal.
7:54- News again that Chandler talks are back on. PHX-NOH to swap picks if it happens.
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