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Around SBN: SEC Basketball at the Half

Warning: This May Blow Your Mind

We miss Jannero Pargo.

Never thought I'd say it. Never, ever in a million years. This is a guy that finished dead last in true shooting percentage, out of every single player in the NBA. Last. Think about that for a second. It's quite a feat in and of itself. By PER, he was in the bottom 10% of all players who got as many minutes as him. And he was asking for as many guaranteed years as James Posey. So why exactly do we miss a guy whose career FG% is under 40%, who attempted an outrageous 84% of his shots on jumpers, and who pretty much chucked up shots at will?

His passing.

//Pauses as reader spits out Coke all over computer screen

Yup, his passing.

Star-divide

I think most of you would agree with the following claim: as bad as our bench has been, we're only an average to slightly above average passer away from having a decent second unit. The bench's defense has been really, really good. All five guys have enough length to pester shooters and clog passing lanes. Posey's one of the best defenders in the league- both help and ball, Wright's an up and coming version of Pose, Devin is great in the passing lanes, and even Hilton is a good shot contester. The offense is where the trouble lies. Yet, even on the offensive side, we've got two excellent slashers (Wright, Brown), and two excellent shooters (Butler, Posey). We just need someone to get them the ball.  We've got a good bit of dynamite, but nothing to ignite it. In fact, we waste some of that scoring ability by pretending that Wright/Brown/Posey can be point guards.

The bench's big problem is a lack of meaningful ball movement. We can track this semi-well with a stat called assist rate (AST%). It's a good estimate of how many shots were created by a specific player. So an 100% assist rate would mean that every shot taken was assisted by that player. A 0% assist rate would imply that the player probably never passed the ball. For some reference, CP3 led the league in AST% last year with an amazing 52.2% rate. Most elite passing PG's fall in the 35% to 40% range. Most backups fall in the 20% to 30% range. The Hornets' assist rates this year:

08-09 Career
Devin Brown 8.6 13.1
Julian Wright 16.9 10.6
James Posey 6.4 10.1
Mike James 17.1 25.2

Devin Brown's 8.6 rate is especially appalling when you consider that he's supposed to be the point guard. His assist rate has dropped 5 points below his career job despite his supposed new job. James Posey: not a point guard (in case you were wondering. Not that you were. Okay fine, I was. I thought the man could do anything, okay?) Julian Wright actually seems like a decent option from an assist rate standpoint. He finds open teammates with ease. My problem with JuJu is his ball handling. He has far and away the worst turnover rate among these four players. Jumping to Pargo's assist stats from a year ago:

07-08 Career
Jannero Pargo 20.4 22.3

Despite his reputation as a chucker, Pargo found teammates twice as often as Devin Brown has found them this year. Huge difference. In fact, Pargo may have been far closer to a "pure" point guard than we ever imagined. Some quick research indicates that only 6 backup point guards registered a higher AST% last season than Pargo. The conclusion? While we were all caught up in watching him make some tough shots and miss a lot more horrible ones, we failed to register what else he was doing on the floor. Turns out that on possessions where he wasn't chucking, he was making plays with his passing (and a low turnover rate, to boot). I never would have dreamed it. But we miss Jannero Pargo for his passing. Imagine that.

Back to that first table real quick. Going by assist rate, Mike James is still the most viable option as a passing point guard. I'll be surprised if he doesn't get another shot at the backup role in the next couple weeks. And I was kidding about wanting Marbury last night.

I think.

0 recs  |  Comment 15 comments |

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Comments

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Interesting.

You might be right. But MJ’s contract mandated we go with him, right? We’ve both said that repeatedly. I think we’ll see Byron try MJ again before long. Maybe even Wednesday, since they’ll have a lot of time to practice it.

As for Marbury? I’d rather see Byron put Hilton at point. Or trade James, Ely, Posey, and Marks for Delonte West. Yeah. Anything other than him. Anything.

by m-W on Nov 29, 2008 7:17 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah his contract mandates it above anything else

But turns out that his play might as well. Which is sort of sad really.

Haha, I feel you on Stephon. He’s one of those guys that you just can’t root for, even if he helps your team. Sell your soul to the devil kind of deal. I wouldn’t do it.

by atthehive on Nov 29, 2008 7:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice blog post

Very good it is true that we miss Pargo maybe we might get him back next year?!…….Maybe…..

by Grayson on Nov 30, 2008 6:36 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

That's certainly a possibility...

Although I hope Jeff Bower can make a move this season! Rather than wait for the summer.

by atthehive on Nov 30, 2008 6:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

I think you are right… which means I have to eat my words because I was totally on the “Mike James will be just like having Pargo except he’ll make more of his shots..” bandwagon. Damn.

by Caleb462 on Nov 30, 2008 8:17 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Me too, I was driving that bandwagon

I think James will get another shot soon… he has to, right?

by atthehive on Nov 30, 2008 8:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

because no way on earth does this team pick up Marbury. Shame we didn’t sign Bobby Brown and it’s too bad we probably don’t have the pieces to land either Sergio Rod or Mike Conley. I just can’t believe Mike James has regressed so much that he can’t even win a backup role over Devin.

I'm no commie, but the Reds shall be the best again!

by RedHopeful on Nov 30, 2008 10:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Gotta admit, very surprised when I read the line "we miss Jannero Pargo"

I think that the second unit definitely needs someone who is facilitating. It would be interesting to see how a player like Sergio Rodriguez would do as a Hornet. He has a very subpar shooting stroke, but I imagine also holds an extremely high assist rate. That’s probably what makes Portland’s bench work.

I really don’t think Mike James is or will ever be the missing piece.

honor rasheed wallace

by Cablinasian on Nov 30, 2008 11:53 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Oh yeah, Surge-Rod has been pretty brilliant passing wise

41.9% his rookie year, a dip to 31.2% last year, but back at 40.9% this season. Hornets definitely don’t have the tools to acquire him though.. : (

by atthehive on Dec 1, 2008 12:07 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He's interesting.

Probably the most polarizing Blazer player. There are fans who think he is a Steve Nash future all star, while others think that he bogs down the offense because he can’t shoot…

He’s somewhere between the two, a lifetime role player. Honestly, I don’t think it would take that much to get him. He would be very, very good on the Hornets. He’s even upped his defensive effort this year. Rodriguez, Posey, Wright, Armstrong, Brown, etc… That would be a fun, up and down the floor type team. Selfishly, I want to see that happen. Talk about entertainment value.

honor rasheed wallace

by Cablinasian on Dec 1, 2008 12:31 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Indeed....

my mind feels satisfied and is now smoking the customary smog after the blessed event. ;0 ohhhhh!!! ;)

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Dec 1, 2008 2:33 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

What about Marcus Williams from the Warriors?

i don’t know what it would take. the only negative is that the Warriors didn’t pick up his option for next year. We don’t need a rental player, and have to be sure we can sign him to deal to keep him if they like his play. But thats wishful thinking. We need a true backup point guard bad.

by Ace Boogie on Dec 1, 2008 6:38 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Good call

He hasn’t gotten as much PT as I would’ve thought. And when Ellis comes back, I’m sure he slides even more. Maybe I’ll do a post covering our various options. Hadn’t thought of Marcus till you bring him up now.

by atthehive on Dec 2, 2008 12:20 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree that the Hornets miss Jannero Pargo. I think what they miss most from him though his is penetration. The Hornets offense was already too reliant on Paul to create off the dribble, and the loss of Pargo only highlights the existing problem further.

It’s difficult for the Hornets to get opposing defenses off balance, to get inside their D and make them react, and then get a good shot out of it … when Paul is not on the floor or dominating the ball. Pargo helped take some of that burden off Paul.

http://nbaroundtable.wordpress.com/

by NBR on Dec 4, 2008 2:16 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

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