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Kobe's Unbelievable, but He's No Michael Jordan

I'd like to preface this by acknowledging that, yes, I'm being a spoilsport. I know I will get criticism such as: "Oh stop dissing Kobe! He's passing now! What more do you want?" and the sure-to-be-popular "Sore loser. You write for a Hornets blog, therefore you are automatically disqualified from writing a credible Kobe < MJ post". Kobe Bryant just won the MVP, guided his talented Laker squad through the treacherous West, and all the way to the NBA Finals. It's a remarkable achievement for sure. But sorry Kobe's parade. You're about to be rained on.

Recent comments by Mark Jackson added fuel to a fire that's been steadily growing for a few years now. Is Kobe the G.O.A.T.? Nope. Sorry to break it to you, but it's not even close. A breakdown, the point of which is not to throw out nebulous terms like "Jordan had great leadership, but Kobe's more explosive," but to provide concrete evidence of MJ's superiority:

Scoring:

We don't have a better scorer in the league right now than Bryant. (Sorry LBJ, but seriously, 39.9% on jump-shots won't cut it). Was Jordan better in his time? PPG is not the greatest measure of a player's ability, but when coupled with eFG%, it gives a pretty good estimation of efficiency and production.

A look at 23's best 10 seasons vs. 24's top 10:

Kobemj1

Granted Kobe shot better than MJ in their two respective best scoring years. That's an aberration. Check out the rest of the figures. It's immediately obvious that Jordan scored more, and Jordan scored more efficiently. Only two places where this doesn't hold true: #1 and #10. From 2-9, MJ dominates. Jordan shot 55% en route to score 33 a game. Seriously, 55%.  Oh, and by the way, Jordan has a 28.2 and a 26.9 that didn't make ths list. Given the numbers, it's pretty clear that Jordan dominates the scoring matchup. Two caveats though:

Firstly, Kobe's only 30 and will probably produce around his current level for 3 or so years before dropping off ever so slightly (and still churning out solid seasons). So he'll fill up some nice numbers in that 6-10 range. But even with the extra time ahead of him, we have zero signs that he will come close to matching MJ's scoring and scoring efficiency in the 1-5 spots. Second, Kobe had Shaq so he didn't need to score all that much. This is a very valid argument and using it, one can argue that PPG undervalues Kobe. There are other aspects to the game...

Ball Handling/Taking Care of the Rock

This is a category that many analysts award to Kobe for some reason. That's something I don't see the logic behind. There's no better way to measure how often a player gives up the ball than turnover percentage, or TOV% (raw turnovers are okay, but crude. TOV% is the number of turnovers/100 possessions and thus cuts down on error due to team and league pace). Time for another table, this one of TOV% in both players' first 12 seasons. Keep in mind that the lower the number, the better.

Kobemj2

Now go ahead and count up how many times Jordan was better. I've bolded the seasons to make this very difficult task much easier. Done? Now if you think 11-1 Jordan is crazy, get this next one. MJ had the lowest TOV% in the entire league in '97. He had a lower TOV% than his teammate Steve Kerr, who was legendary for not letting the ball touch the ground (ie, a shot or a pass on every touch). Baseball people will often point to Yogi Berra striking out just 12 teams in 600 AB's as one of the craziest single season stats in the sport. MJ's TOV% is basketball's Yogi Berra strikeout stat.

Kobe a better ball-handler? Riiight.

Rebounding

Jordan (6'6", 195) and Bryant (6'6", 200) are so similarly built that it's worth comparing their rebounding figures. I won't bore you with season by season statistics, but instead with three simple numbers. ORB%: MJ 4.7, Kobe 3.8. DRB%:  MJ 14.1, Kobe 12.6. TRB%: MJ 9.4, Kobe 8.2. Translation: MJ was better at offensive rebounding. MJ was better at defensive rebounding. MJ was better at rebounding. And before you say that Kobe had Shaq stealing his potential rebounds , dig deep in those memory banks and remember who was cleaning the glass for Chicago. Yup, Dennis Rodman.

Passing

This has long been one of the biggest critiques of Kobe: he doesn't pass enough and make his teammates better as MJ did. I think much of that has been overstated through the years. This is the thing with Kobe: many of the shots that he takes only look "bad" because most players would look silly taking them. Kobe haters won't admit this, but #24 is probably the most difficult shot maker in NBA history. Yes, better than MJ. No way to quantify it, but watch a season of Jordan games and a season of Kobe's games and it's obvious. Kobe can hit a fadeaway, turnaround 20 footer over a hand seemingly at will. It looks like a bad shot when it misses, but given his ability, it's never as bad as it looks. That's my defense of his supposedly poor passing.

Passing can be measured decently with AST% (number of assists/100 possessions). Jordan had a really odd trend in his career- in 1989, he posted a stellar 34.7 AST%, but his assist rate declined pretty much every year until his second retirement, when he posted a shockingly low 18.0%. If Kobe every posted an 18.0%, he'd be crucified. Was it a case of him trusting teammates less and less? That's debatable. AST% for great scorers isn't a measure of "trust" as much as a mixture of confidence in oneself and luck. You'd better believe that MJ was pretty damn confident in himself by 1998. Jordan's career AST% stands at 24.9%.

A common phrase we've heard a lot this year is "Kobe's passing the ball a lot more and trusting his teammates." According to AST%, not true. His AST%, since 2000, '00 first: 22.4, 23.0, 25.9, 27.2, 24.4, 28.5, 24.1, 25.5, 23.9. His '08 campaign saw his lowest assist rate in 7 years, so he's not necessarily passing the ball more. Instead, the numbers say that Kobe's always been a pretty good passer, contrary to public opinion. Bryant's career AST% stands at 23.6%.

In the end, Jordan is still the better passer but by less than you might imagine. The 1.3% difference in AST% is bound to decrease with P. Gasol in the mix for L.A.

Defense

Easily the most difficult aspect of the game to quantify. You'll find some analysts that say steals indicate nothing about a player's defensive prowess and that steals might actually be a negative stat due to the potential gambling involved. You'll find some analysts that say steals can't be ignored because every steal is a defensive stop (as outlined by Dean Oliver). You'll find some analysts that say DPOY awards and All-Defensive teams are popularity contests, and others that support those honors.

In terms of box score stats, MJ posted a 3.1 STL% to Kobe's current 2.2 So slightly better. He posted a 1.4 BLK% to Kobe's 1.2. Basically negligible. In terms of awards, MJ garnered 9 All-Defensive 1st team awards in 15 seasons to Kobe's 6 in 12. MJ, though, also won a Defensive Player of the Year award, something most feel Kobe won't ever achieve. In the end, I say that Jordan holds the slight edge, but it's clearly up for debate.

Durability

This one isn't mentioned in very many MJ vs. KB debates, but I don't see why not. Jordan was one of the NBA's great ironmen and hit 80 or more games in 10 out of 13 seasons with Chicago (and played all 82 his last year in Washington). Kobe, meanwhile, has played 80 or more in just 5 of 12 seasons (I'm counting '99's 50 games as 80+). This stat may seem like a cherry-pick since Kobe did hit 77 games one year (I'm only counting his starter seasons, so his 79 in '98 doesn't count). But Jordan also posted a 78 game season in '93 to even that out.

Simply put, Jordan just didn't miss very many games whilst not stricken by a crippling desire to play professional baseball in a highly amateurish fashion. Kobe's missed quite a few.

Playoffs? Playoffs? We're talkin'... Playoffs?

Yeah, Playoffs. Jordan posted 33.4 PPG (on 49%), 6.4 RPG, and 5.7 APG. He's collected 6 championships. As of today, Bryant's posted 24.2 PPG (on 45%), 5.1 RPG, and 4.6 APG. He's collected 3 championships.

He could pick up #4 in the next few weeks, and maybe #5 in the next few years. But as far as matching Jordan as one of the greatest playoff performers of all time? Not impossible, but let's just say, highly improbable. I hate measuring players based on what they've won; it sells great players with bad teammates short. So let's just move on.

The Big Picture

As of today, I don't think there's a better "big picture" stat than John Hollinger's PER. +/- has some work to be done as far as isolating individual player performances, and ORtg requires USG% to be useful. So how do Jordan and Bryant match up, PER-wise?

A list of the top 10 season PER's between the two players combined:

  1. Jordan, '88, 31.7
  2. Jordan, '91, 31.6
  3. Jordan, '90, 31.2
  4. Jordan, '89, 31.1
  5. Jordan, '87, 29.8
  6. Jordan, '93, 29.7
  7. Jordan, '96, 29.4
  8. Bryant, '06, 28.0
  9. Jordan, '97, 27.8
  10. Jordan, '92, 27.7

Jordan career PER: 27.8, Bryant career PER 23.6. Think about that. Kobe had his best year statistically in 2006, when he hit amazing shot after amazing shot, averaged 35.4 ppg and scored 81 in a single game. And Michael Jordan had not one, not two, not even three, but seven seasons that were better. In the end, it's probably naive to omit mentioning hand checking violations and zone defenses that differentiate both players' eras. But it's also beyond the scope of most statistics to account for the error caused, so I'll merely say that both players had their perks. Jordan didn't contend with the zone and Bryant is now hand-check free. Make of that what you will, but the overall picture still remains the same.

Kobe might be the greatest of his generation, but better than Michael? That's an insult to the Greatest of All Time.

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Comments

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It might be wrong, be I wouldn't say it's an insult

“Jordan didn’t contend with the zone and Bryant is now hand-check free. Make of that what you will, but the overall picture still remains the same.”

Going to have to disagree that the overall picture (of the stats) remains the same.

I think the variables in the context of the stats distort them more than you think, but that is just my opinion.  No doubt, MJ was better than his contemporaries relative to Kobe and his contemporaries, but it gets a little trickier when trying to compare the two in absolute terms.

by Amazing_Happens on May 31, 2008 4:17 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Haha

The “insult” thing was just to add a flourish to the conclusion :)

But, eh, as far as the overall picture of the stats changing. I wasn’t going to look this up initially (too tedious), but I figure what the heck, if it makes this comparison more comprehensive then so much the better. So:

League Defensive Efficiency during KB’s Years (1997-2008): 104.9 Points Allowed/100 Possessions
League Defensive Efficiency during MJ’s Years (85-98, 02-03): 107.1 Points Allowed/100 Possessions

So you’re right in one sense that the league has become significantly better defensively. BUT the league defense efficiency comparison means nothing without taking into account individual offensive efficiency. This is where Dean Oliver’s ORtg comes in handy. I’m using ORtg instead of PER here because comparing PER with efficiency numbers would be comparing apples to oranges.
As I mentioned earlier, ORtg without USG% is useless, but since both Jordan and Bryant have such comparable USG% (Jordan 33.3, Bryant 31.1), it has its value. Offensive Efficiencies removing Bryant’s first two years (which didn’t reflect his “true” ability, since he rode the bench a lot relatively speaking), and removing Jordan’s last two years (which didn’t reflect his “true” ability, because he had just taken a 4 year hiatus from the league and was 38 and 39):

Bryant Offensive Efficiency (99-08): 112.5 Points/100 Possessions
Jordan Offensive Efficiency (85-98): 120.5 Points/100 Possessions

Now we can effectively “plug” Jordan into the 2000’s, or vice versa, Kobe into the 90’s. From above, the difference in league defensive efficiencies was 107.1-104.9 or 2.2. So adding 2.2 to Kobe’s ORtg gives us 114.7. Jordan’s 120.5 is still much better. Obviously doing the opposite (subtracting 2.2 from Jordan) yields the same result at Kobe 112.5 and Jordan 118.3. Remember, this is assuming that Jordan completely wouldn’t be able to handle the zone and so takes the “full” hit from zone D’s advantages. Personally, I think he would adapt better. But even assuming he doesn’t adapt at all it’s clear that defensive changes in the two eras don’t come near accounting for the difference in production from Jordan and Bryant.

by atthehive on May 31, 2008 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

D'oh

And by 4 year hiatus above, I mean 3.

by atthehive on May 31, 2008 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Visitor

I found this story on the sidebar that shows stories from around SBN and boy, am I glad. I am going to save this article in my favorites and provide it to anyone who makes this crazy argument again. Just because they both score a lot (take a lot of shots) doesn’t mean they’re the same. Kobe has a ways to go, yet. Also, it was just very interesting. Most articles, when I’m 40% through them, i scroll down to see how much more is left to decide whether or not to read the rest. Didn’t happen here.

I do have one issue with the article though: In the rebounding section, you mention that Jordan had Rodman. Jordan only had Rodman for 3.5 years of his career while Kobe had Shaq around for 8. I think that may be responsible for a lot of the difference observed between the rebounding rates. They may be closer together in that regard than your analysis indicates, in my opinion.

by RealTangiblesGuy on May 31, 2008 11:08 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Good stuff TangiblesGuy

That’s a great point I hadn’t thought of. Going back and calculating non-Shaq, and non-Rodman years:


Bryant without O’Neal: 8.26 (+0.26 compared to with)
Jordan without Rodman: 9.47 (+0.07 compared to with)

So oddly enough, it seems to make no difference. But still a good question to ask.

by atthehive on May 31, 2008 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is

TRB% by the way. If you’d like me to go back and do ORB% and DRB% separately, I will, but I doubt either is significantly different.

by atthehive on May 31, 2008 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nope--Seems Enough

Thanks for looking that up. That’s pretty interesting that Jordan’s rebounding was barely affected by Rodman.

by RealTangiblesGuy on Jun 2, 2008 9:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

It seems like having a good rebounder on your team might actually enhance your own rebounding numbers. I might delve further into a study on this later in the off-season.

by atthehive on Jun 3, 2008 10:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I only got to see Jordan in his late years and seeing videos isn’t the same as experiencing all the moments live. Kobe is the best of his generation and great to watch. Shooting guards of there talents are hard to come by so its just best to appreciate them while they are around. I don’t care who was better in there primes, I just like watching the best right now play.

Shaq:"The kobster, he's an assassin" Answer for who should be mvp.

by ldeep on May 31, 2008 4:50 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Another Point to make

Not just for Kobe, but in general, is how drastically the statistics can change with the addition of one teammate.

Kobe and Lamar’s stats are markedly different since the arrival of Pau Gasol. Does that mean they all of a sudden got better?

My point is, the statistics don’t always accurately reflect the underlying talent level. To interpreting stats is like trying make out an image in a reflection in the water. You might see it well when the water is calm, but if it’s wavy, it’ll look a little different, but the object making the reflection has been the same.

No one’s arguing that Kobe has better statistics than Jordan. But I do think it’s debatable that that necessarily means one player is better than the other.

I much prefer the qualitative arguments , such as “MJ was a stronger post player”, which I can’t argue with.

by Amazing_Happens on May 31, 2008 7:26 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Of course

The question isn’t who was "better at basketball" per se. It’s who contributed more throughout his career, who played at a higher level, who did more. That’s what defines the greatest NBA player. And I say, yes, the stats can tell you who did more. Having a great teammate will show up in a player’s USG%. Having a great teammate will show up in a player’s assisted-on numbers. The point is, basketball statistics have come to a stage where we can make the water calm before looking at the reflection (offensively, of course). We can look at discrete individual performance and distinguish it from the whole rather well.

You say that "[better statistics] don’t necessarily mean one player is better than the other." That’s fair. I think that’s a perfectly acceptable way of looking at it, and I respect that opinion.

To me, the bottom line is winning. All the statistics I’ve cited correlate very, very well with winning. Any basketball player’s ultimate goal should be to help his team win, and so the greatest player should be the one who helped his team win the most (again, that’s not necessarily the same as who won the most). And in this case, it’s definitely Jordan. Character issues can factor, sure. But neither MJ nor Kobe has ever done anything so bad that his teammates hated him, etc. (err, although you could make a case for Kobe doing some such thing, I suppose…).

by atthehive on May 31, 2008 10:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

By the way

I can’t wait until you Laker fans get a home here on SB Nation (that would be so awesome if FB&G moved over). Normally you hear about Lakers fans online being ignorant, homers, trollers, etc. But just from seeing the comments that many Laker fans have made throughout SB Nation sites (PtR, etc.), I must say I’m impressed.

by atthehive on Jun 1, 2008 12:24 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I totally agree

Is there a plan for FB&G to move here?

The commenting format is so much better here than at other sites.

Here’s a brand new Lakers blog I found that has some promise: goldenarmor.wordpress.com

by Amazing_Happens on Jun 1, 2008 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good stuff @ that site.

Haven’t heard of a plan for FB&G to move. Maybe I’ll e-mail Kurt about it and see what he thinks.

by atthehive on Jun 3, 2008 10:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

4th Quarter

To me it comes down to the 4th quarter. I mean, I’ve seen so many games where Kobe put up 35 through 3, but then in the 4th, they run an iso every time down the floor, 5 guys collapse on him, and the Lake-show comes up empty. End result? Loss. And I was a Laker fan almost all those years! (Yes, loved Shaq at LSU, then Orlando, then L.A….)

Now compare this to Jordan? Man, I was a Knicks fan then. (I grew up in NY.) Fucking Jordan was just unstoppable. That’s the difference.

I’m not saying Kobe can’t reach that level, I just haven’t seen it. (And this isn’t to take away from what Kobe is now. I think I was the last Hornets blogger to jump on the CP3 MVP train…)

by m-W on May 31, 2008 11:03 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Yogi

Hat tip for a reference to the all-time greatest stat. As a side note, Yogi actually only averaged 32 Ks per 600 at bats throughout his career, with about a standard deviation of 10, so his 12 strikeout season represents a 2nd-percentile performance even by his ridiculously lofty standards.

by Brian Ball on Jun 6, 2008 2:04 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Avatar

Also, “atthehive” – if that’s even your real name – how do I go about getting my Ryan Bowen avatar. I bet people are lining up around the block to get that thing.

by Brian Ball on Jun 6, 2008 2:05 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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