Chris Paul Only Has Good Stats Because He Dribbles Around a Lot
I would start by saying,"I'm sure you've all heard Rajon Rondo's comments...", but I won't say that, because I hadn't heard them, and by the transitive property of my intellectual superiority, you probably haven't either.
But seriously though, hat tip to Hornets Hype for linking me to the Chris Mannix tweet, and forcing me to address a topic I've long wanted to.
First, Rondo's alleged quote, through Kendrick Perkins, through Chris Mannix: "Chris Paul has the stats that he has because he has the ball in his hands all game."
This is an assertion I've seen echoed by many, many people before. In fact, it's one of the prime arguments that the Deron Williams > Chris Paul crowd affixes itself to. I.e., "if Chris Paul played in Utah's offense, where he would actually have to set screens and do things other than dribble 24/7, he'd be way worse than Deron Williams."
Random note: I just realized I get, like, an adrenaline rush whenever I see a Hornet even minorly slighted. I was just about to go to sleep, decided to check out the Hype one more time before turning in, and then boom! Wide awake, knifing through statistics, thinking up witty banter.
Anyways, as you might imagine, there's some very flawed logic that accompanies Rondo's statement.
First of all, I'm going to go out on a very short limb here and assume that Rondo is speaking of total stats, in lieu of rate stats. People that read this site (and people that do not, but are intelligent) are surely aware of the idiocy of relying on total statistics. But even if we cut Rondo a little slack, and assume he was talking about rate stats... he's still wrong.
Look around the league. You'll find plenty of point guards with very solid assist rate and scoring efficiencies, with usage rates in the 18%-22% range (oh, hey.... that's funny. Rondo's one of them!). If Rondo were right, every coach in the league is an imbecile for not giving his lower usage, higher efficiency players more possessions. The reason Rondo's wrong is that efficiency stats tend to decrease with increases in usage rate. You can't just assume that a player producing 1.1 points/possession, using 1 in every 5 team possessions, will sustain that rate while using 2 in every 5 team possessions. Specifically, sustainability is a skill set unto its own. It can come in the form of creativity (perhaps that one head fake will work when you use it once every 20 possessions, but not so well when your opponent sees it every other time down the floor), physical endurance, or a number of other aspects.
The reason Chris Paul (and Dwyane Wade and LeBron James) are so good is because they can be incredibly efficient on offense while using a ton of possessions. This is why they are given a ton of possessions. Rondo has the process precisely backwards. And before we dispense with Rondo, one more thing:
Rondo, career usage: 18.3%
Paul, career usage: 24.8%
Rondo, points/100 possessions: 108
Paul, points/100 possessions: 124
So not only would Rondo be worse than Paul if he were able to sustain his current efficiency and were given Paul's usage (unlikely), he wouldn't be close. And if we were to be realistic and pare down Rondo's projected efficiency at Paul's usage... um, yeah.
And re: the Deron Williams crowd. In Williams' case, it isn't the disparity in usage rate we should be looking at; DWill has highly comparable usage statistics to Paul. The DWill crowd's gripe is that Hornet plays are "set up" to either end on Paul assist or shots. They contend that Utah's offense doesn't center on Williams ending every play. Well, guess what! Hornets plays are set up like that, because Paul is extremely, extremely good at ending plays like that. Williams' efficiencies are far lower, running his offense however the hell he runs it; often, Utah plays end with Boozer, Millsap, Kirilenko, or others creating. The fact is, Utah has a much stronger supporting cast than New Orleans. Jerry Sloan wisely uses this to his advantage. To assume that Williams would have Paul's stats (rates and totals) if he played in a similar offense is dead wrong, because Williams' turnover rates and overall offensive efficiencies strongly point to the contrary.
Chris Paul has the stats that he has because he has the ball in his hands all game, and also because he happens to be Chris Paul.
0 recs |
20 comments
|
Comments
awesome
I’m sick of clowns trying to bring CP3 down to everyone else’s level when he is clearly superior to any PG in the league. Put CP3 in Utah and the Jazz would be in the WCF every season.
HEY, IT's THE BUM FROM THE DARK! GET A JOB YOU BUM!
by grimsleyfan on Nov 1, 2009 8:14 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'm glad you did this.
Seeing as i’m not a statistical person. As soon as this ran across twitter, 3rd Quarter Collapse put up similar usage rate stats and said Rondo was full of it, so I was pretty sure this was the case.
http://hornetshype.com
by ticktock6 on Nov 1, 2009 9:20 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Ditto
I love when stat people vindicate my gut feelings. I love Rondo’s game, and D-Will is great, but neither is CP3. Neither ever will be CP3. Chris Paul is a once-in-a-generation talent. Oh yeah, and like Bruce Banner, you don’t want to see CP when he’s angry.
by m-W on Nov 1, 2009 10:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
huh???
first of all, why are u comparing rondo to paul??? rondo didnt say he was better than paul or that he had better stats. he just said paul’s stats are exaggerated because he handles the ball so much
also, utah’s system is all about back screens and cuts. possessions usually end with boozer (and hardly end with milsap and ak) only after other players couldnt get open.
dwill clearly doesnt have the ball as much as paul, but to say its “dead wrong” that he cant have similar stats in a Hornets offense is “dead wrong”. dwill runs a fast break very effectively and has just as good of passing vision as paul.
by jsal on Nov 1, 2009 1:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'm not comparing Rondo to Paul for comparison's sake
I did it because Rondo is implying that others could be just like Paul if they got his touches. Rondo is a good example of a lower usage, high efficiency guard, so using an extrapolation of his stats was simply a good example.
“dwill runs a fast break very effectively”
“dwill has just as good of passing vision”
You can keep the nebulous statements coming all day, but until you quantify them, they’re meaningless.
by atthehive on Nov 1, 2009 1:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ur over analyzing
rondo wasnt shedding insight on the pros and cons of teams using lower possession, high efficient players and he wasnt pondering whether he wanted to argue pauls’ total stats or rate stats. he just said that having the ball as long as paul does will inevitably give somebody better TOTAL stats.
and speaking of nebulous statements:
“Chris Paul has the stats that he has because he…happens to be Chris Paul.”
lol
by jsal on Nov 1, 2009 4:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll continue to be impressed by haters
that have an inability to spell “you’re,” “you are” or other simple words. LOL!!! [Yes, the chatspeak is sarcasm…]
by m-W on Nov 1, 2009 4:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for completely missing the point buddy
by atthehive on Nov 1, 2009 4:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just tired of sports bloggers
that write (vent?) about their teams with a bias. I understand this is a Hornet blog and I am not saying that cp3 is a bad player, but next time you post just try not to be as biased.
and i didnt know my grammer had to be perfect in my posts. but considering the author has his flaws (“<”, “umm”), i thought i wouldnt be criticized.
by jsal on Nov 1, 2009 8:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't particularly care about your grammar
But please point out to me the bias.
The numbers really don’t lie, unless you make them. And if you could point out how I’ve made them lie, I’d be more than happy to hear about it.
by atthehive on Nov 1, 2009 9:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
slightly of topic ...
but since this is about CP …
I check out WoW every now and then and caught this article belatedly … don’t know if someone posted it yet but …
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/10/13/is-this-beginning-of-the-tragedy-of-chris-paul/
by unnamed on Nov 1, 2009 1:51 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
im not debating the numbers,
cp3 is efficient as hell, but some of the things you said are slanted.
To name a few:
Rondo wasnt even talking about efficiency! you felt the need to argue in favor of paul by pointing out how paul is more efficient than rondo. rondo didnt say paul wasnt efficient or that he was more efficient than paul, but just that paul gets good stats because he has the ball so often. obviously you have to be efficient with the ball to have good stats, and rondo WAS NOT arguring this. efficiency wasnt what rondo had a beef with.
Also, arguing that somebody has good stats because they “happens to be Chris Paul” is clearly biased. i dont think i need to explain this one.
by jsal on Nov 1, 2009 9:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Ugh
I brought up efficiency because that’s a common argument people use against Paul (not just totals). If you read the post, you’d see I’m differentiating between Rondo’s quote and Deron Williams’ supporters. I put out the Rondo/Paul efficiency figures to prove that point further- that because efficiencies decrease with usage, what Paul is doing is even more impressive than simply getting higher totals through more touches.
The last line happens to be what some refer to as “tongue in cheek.” Since you don’t seem to understand this concept, let me explain. We, the viewers, do not know exactly what makes Chris Paul so good. Perhaps it’s natural talent. Perhaps it’s hard work. Either way, the contention is that the biggest contributor to Paul’s NBA numbers is not minutes, but his own ability. His ability to “be Chris Paul” is a catch-all for that.
You may call it bias, but this is what 99% of humans refer to as “humor.” It is “funny.” It “makes people laugh.”
by atthehive on Nov 1, 2009 10:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i think...
we re just looking at this differently, but i understand ur point, though I may not entirely agree.
though I accidently stumbled upon this blog, ill try to keep an eye on ur posts in the future and peacefully argue when i see necessary.
by jsal on Nov 1, 2009 10:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Where's his defense and rebounding?
CP is an excellent PG but let’s get serious here. His direct matchups with division opponent Tony Parker sums it all up from 3 yrs ago to today. Tony pretty much owns him in wins including that amazing 7 game series of 2 yrs ago where everyone wrote off the Spurs coming into that 7th game in NO. Add the 3 NBA championships rings Tony has including a Finals MVP on 2007 to CP’s none. Now that TP has that deadly midrange jumper there’s no flaw to his game and there’s the other team factor Tony has over Chris. Tony runs the floor with better quickness and penetration when playing attack mode and knows when to back off when defenses are set. CP tends to sometimes force the issue during these instances. Granted Tony has much more experience but that’s part of what separates these guys. Add to the fact that Tony Parker has played amongst better players with the Spurs allowing him to become more team oriented but allowed him to become a better player himself. Lastly let’s not forget how Pop coached this kid in the past and has become the product that he is today. Where does Byron Scott rank in comparison to Popovich? Basketball fans have to keep reminding themselves, it’s not about the flash and impressiveness, it’s about results and consistency. Are you listening Deron Williams?
by Sambaman on Nov 2, 2009 10:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Paul is one of the top rebounding point guards in the NBA (top 3 with Jason Kidd and Rajon Rondo). He outrebounds Kobe Bryant. That’s all you really need to know.
As adjusted plus/minus evolves to include many seasons of data (thus minimizing error further), it’s showing more and more that Paul is one of the premier defenders of the NBA. His propensity to go for steals really helps the team out, contrary to what many of us thought a few years ago.
The bottom line is he’s one of the best defenders in the league, an incredible rebounder for his size. Oh, and he’s arguably the top offensive player in the game right now.
Tony Parker plays nowhere near the same offense, doesn’t rebound, and is a significantly worse defender.
If you think Chris Paul would not have won multiple titles with Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili… well, I don’t know what else to say.
by atthehive on Nov 3, 2009 3:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
rebounding?
Paul is one of the top rebounding point guards in the NBA (top 3 with Jason Kidd and Rajon Rondo). He outrebounds Kobe Bryant. That’s all you really need to know.
Umm… no. You also need to know that he rebounds at a rate of .077 rebounds/min. That is exactly HALF of Rondo’s rate (.154 rebounds/min).
Paul plays more minutes – a reflection of the difference in depth and his relative importance on his team. So his total rebound numbers are decent for a PG. But its not his strong point.
His strong point is his shooting. Together with his decent assist numbers, his total offensive points produced per minute are very high (1.252) which is much higher than Rondos (.924). But Rondo’s rebounding and steal rates (.077 to Paul’s .021) are much, much higher. This is why some view Paul as somewhat of a hybrid SG/PG and Rondo as more of a pure PG.
Apples and Oranges. Both are great players. Both are punks. But different.
by mmmmm on Nov 3, 2009 5:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Minutes is a terrible way to measure players
Because teams play different styles and use different amounts of possessions per game. The Hornets use among the slowest possessions in the league.
Rebound rates of the top guards last year:
1. Kidd 9.9
2. Rondo 9.6
3. Paul 9.1
Bryant checks in at 8.2.
“But [rebounding] is not his strong point.” Funny you would say that, because it’s absolutely a strong point.
And Paul’s steals per posession last year (3.9) is way better than Rondo’s was (3.0).
So it’s actually not apples and oranges. It’s actually one apple that’s way, way better than the other apple.
by atthehive on Nov 4, 2009 11:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Paul is number 1
I’m a Celtics fan and a huge Steve Nash fan and i’ll admit that Paul is the best point guard in the league. Although Deron Williams has found a way to shut him down.
by Jmicro on Nov 12, 2009 6:33 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

by 
















