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Looking at Steve Nash (oh, and Chris Paul Obviously)

With New Orleans taking on a red hot Phoenix tomorrow, I guess this is timely.

One of the early trends of the season has been the revival of Steve Nash. The Suns completed one of the more impressive Eastern swings recently, with wins over Philadelphia, Miami, and Boston easily offsetting a loss at Orlando. And Nash, for sure, has been very solid. A lot more solid than some may have expected. Consider, for example, some of his trends the last three years:

Season PER TS% eFG% AST% ORtg
2007 23.8 65.4 61.3 50.1 124
2008 21.1 64.1 59.7 47.3 121
2009 19.5 61.5 56.6 42.4 119
2010 22.8 65.8 61.1 56.5 123


Considering the trends from 2007-2009 (universally downwards in PER, TS%, eFG%, AST%, and ORtg), Nash has had a very impressive start to 2010. Couple that with team wins, a statistic that people very often use to overrate individual players, and Nash's value seems to inherently increase. But is Nash's pace- which, by the way, is just a shade shy of his "MVP" years, a.k.a. Chris Paul's rookie and sophomore years- sustainable?

My initial inclination is no. The primary driver of Nash's overall efficiency is his assist rate right now. He leads the league, right ahead of Paul, in assists per possession. A huge reason for this is that his team is shooting outlandishly from the field right now. Jason Richardson, a career 37% three point shooter, is shooting 58% on nearly 40 attempts. Grant Hill and Goran Dragic have put down 50% of their attempts. Channing Frye, who had made 20 threes in 4 years prior to this, has made 22 in 8 games. And even Jared Dudley has nearly attempted 30 threes. The Suns are shooting over 47% as a team from three. As a team, their eFG% of 57% is far and away the best in the league, and is totally unsustainable. Last year's leaders- also the Suns, unsurprisingly- shot 54.5 eFG%, a significantly lower figure. Last year's three point leaders- the Kings, surprisingly- were far and away the NBA's best at 40.6%.

The Suns will cool down, and it will affect Nash's assist numbers. So his overall efficiencies will go down. However, there may be a good case that he will sustain his own shooting figures. Last year's lower numbers (Nash's "lows" obviously being highs for anyone else) may very well have been anomalous.

Of course, I need to talk about Chris Paul at this juncture.

These numbers have earned Nash early MVP and All-Star starter buzz and Paul... nothing:

Player PER TS% eFG% Reb% AST% TOV% USG ORtg
Nash 22.8 65.8 61.1 4.8 56.5 25.0 23.4 123
Paul 36.0 74.0 69.3 6.2 54.5 11.3 26.8 145

 

Are Paul's shooting rates as unsustainable as Nash's assist rates? Oh, absolutely, probably more so. But over the first two weeks of the season, they're not even playing the same game! By Win Shares, Paul has been twice as valuable as Nash!

Lately, I've been hearing a lot of commentators say "you know, I'd just put Chris Paul a hair above Deron Williams. Just the slightest of tiny edges on Steve Nash." We've finally seemed to reached the point where Paul is acknowledged to be better than his competition by most people, but most are reluctant to state it firmly. Tomorrow, we'll see the announcers talk about how this is a matchup of the league's two best point guards. That's probably true... but it's also a matchup of the league's second best lead guard and league's best player.

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Comments

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I’m just glad commentators are finally acknowledging that Chris Paul is the best PG now. Nice evidence, though.

by m-W on Nov 10, 2009 8:50 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

These are nice numbers, but I don’t think this is how MVP’s get voted on. So I don’t see the point of this. Especially when for the most part people agree, at this point, Paul is the best. And I wouldn’t say that CP has received “nothing” for his awesome play. He’s regarded highly in NBA circles. It seems strange that this article almost seems to blame Nash because his team is shooting well. There’s no doubt the Suns will cool off but one could also make a point that the reasons for the increase in shooting percentage by some of the players on the Suns is the comfort zone and confidence Nash brings to the floor. There are no numbers for that intangible but Im certain it’s just as important or in some cases more important.

by Appreciate the Hate on Nov 11, 2009 8:43 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

There aren’t numbers for that, and it isn’t going to happen.

Simple probability and refression.

by atthehive on Nov 11, 2009 11:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

This calculation is tentative to the methodology used

Cp3 is no doubt the best pg in the league, but skepticism is warranted.

by Azrael on Nov 11, 2009 9:41 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Wait

what? Skepticism about what?

by atthehive on Nov 11, 2009 11:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He’s definitely in the top two, with Deron Williams being the second best in my opinion. But like Appreciate the Hate said, MVP’s aren’t based solely on numbers – it’s also based on overall team performance and W’s IMO.

by dcdawg07 on Nov 11, 2009 10:00 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I agree

Chris Paul isn’t going to win this year.

by atthehive on Nov 11, 2009 11:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think it's well-established that Paul is the best PG in the NBA

But he won’t get MVP chatter unless the team’s record improves. That’s just how it goes.

Steve Nash, the league's MVP, is a longhaired Canadian who spoke out against the war in Iraq and reads The Communist Manifesto. Quentin Richardson declared after a game-winning shot that it "was like Hamlet. It was a suspense thriller, and I killed them at the end." Amare Stoudemire, when asked to comment on a 22-point third quarter against the Kings, said, "I've got a tendency to jump over some guys' heads and throw it down."

by rsavaj on Nov 11, 2009 11:29 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yep

This is also true

by atthehive on Nov 11, 2009 11:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well I Agree

There is no need to qualify CP3 is the best PG in the League. He is probably the best player in the League right now. You want leadership? Check. Drive? Check. Work ethic, a good teammate, gives to charity, is a stable personality, and never in trouble with the law or debt collectors. I’m not sur how many more intangible people want.

As for wins? He had, what, one less than Kobe two years ago and still no MVP. In the NBA, sadly, it’s about whose turn it is. Kobe had his, LRJ his. Now it is CP’s turn. Anyone blind to what he has accomplished over the last few years is a fool. CP is not just good, but historic good. Every indicator is that he will cntinue that success and carry the Hornets into the playoffs. And should win the MVP.

by m-W on Nov 11, 2009 1:16 PM CST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

CP3 wont be mvp until the Hornets become a contender or he moves to a contender/

by CavsLebronFan on Nov 12, 2009 6:18 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

haha

Nash absolutely KILLED paul, and he didnt even play the second half, had 7 assists in the first QUARTER, Nash finished with 10 assists and 11 points. It could have easily been another 20-20 game…

by Saleem on Nov 12, 2009 10:42 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

and Paul is no doubt a good defender

not taking anything away from him, its just speaks Volumes for how good Nash STILL is at his age, being a nightmare for players in their prime

by Saleem on Nov 12, 2009 10:43 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

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