Game 48: Hive Live
Minnesota 97 (17-33) | New Orleans 101 (30-18)
Ugly game, but we pulled out the W, so it's hard for me to complain.
Ok, so that's not true. I complain all the time. But scrutiny and "analysis" is why I'm here in the first place, so let's do this.
For starters, we probably don't win this game if Al Jefferson hadn't gotten hurt near the end of the fourth. Sure he only missed the final 27 seconds, but if Jefferson ahd been in the post, there's no way Marks would have iced (used loosely here) the contest with what my brother described as "the easiest dunk of his life." Not that we couldn't have won, but I think the chances would have plummeted significantly if we hadn't scored on that possession.
The T'Wolves came out strong early, owning us in the paint and on the boards for most of the first half. They also weren't afraid to get physical, though instead of taking one on the chin and pushing back, the Hornets got flustered and sloppy. A whole lot of pushing, shoving, whistles, and no whistles eventually led to David West's completely indefensible Flagrant 2 on Mike Miller. DX was frustrated about a no call on the other end of the court (or really hard fouls by Cardinal and McCants from earlier) and saw fit to attempt a "steal" by smacking Miller across the face. Oh yeah, and he didn't come close to touching the ball. At all. Dumb. Just dumb, David.
So, with the T'Wolves leading at the half and DX getting ejected, I kind of figured a W was pretty unlikely. Especially considering Peja was ice-cold from the floor, going 2 for 11. Apparently he used all of his allotted treys for the week against Toronto.
But, lucky for me (and every other Hornet fan out there), Rasual Butler and Sean Marks did not share my pessimism. Butler finished with 23, a team-leading 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, and 0 turnovers in 40 minutes of play. Meanwhile, Marks dropped 18 points to go with 5 rebounds and a block in 24 minutes and his performance pretty much equalized the points in the paint battle (which finished 36-34 in favor of Minnesota).
All in all, we got solid contributions from most of the squad, and they were able to seal the deal despite big games from Jefferson and Ryan Gomes. We've only got one more contest without CP and it's a very winnable game against the Grizz. Hopefully our boys can scrape together another W and give us little push heading into the break. You know, just in case Boston spoils Chris' return on Wednesday.
***
Couple of observations before I leave you:
- We couldn't see the Jefferson injury too well from our seats, but my brother said the instant replay at home looked pretty painful. You hate to see guys go down like that. Hopefully, he has a speedy recovery.
- It's very possible that after the requisite league review that accompanies all Flagrant 2 fouls that David will be suspended. Which sucks. It sucks even more when you consider that the league may not turn a suspension around in a day, which means DX would be sitting out against the Celtics on Wednesday. Oof.
- Though he only finished slightly above 50% from the field, tonight's "I could hit shots blindfolded and with one arm tied behind my back" award goes to Ryan Gomes for sinking a handful amazing (and heavily contested) shots. Every time the Hornets would get some momentum rolling, Gomes was there on the other end of the court to promptly kill the crowd's spirit.
- Antonio Daniels contributed 12 points and 7 assists and Devin Brown added 14 points and 3 assists of his own. Not a bad platoon. It doesn't quite offset Chris, but 26 and 10 from the point is never a bad thing.
- JuJu continues to struggle. He seems to have zero confidence in his shot, often passing up open looks to try and create off the dribble. But then he doesn't. He did contribute 2 rebounds, 2 assists, and a steal, but at this point he's producing at the same level as Ryan Bowen.
- Speaking of Bowen, tonight he was ousted from his position as "oldest looking NBA player" after a I got a look at Brian "The Custodian" Cardinal.
- On a final note, I would like to point out that after a Peja trip to the stripe that put us up by 3 with 4 seconds to play, Byron elected to have Devin Brown foul Sebastian Telfair rather than letting the Wolves to try for a trey. It was a gutsy move that ended up paying off. I read a lot of musing on the subject (whether or not it makes sense as a strategy), but I'd never seen it implemented. Nice call, Byron.
Photos courtesy of espn.com
Composed to: XTC's Skylarking
The opponent's take: Canis Hoopus
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Bench play could be a strength at the end of the year.....
With the emergence of our acquisitions (Marks, Posey, Brown, and Daniels) our bench is looking like a potential strength rather than a weakness. I feel comfortable with either Brown or Daniels’ superiority over Pargo (and of course James). Marks has shown the ability to supplant either Armstrong or Ely against all but maybe Shaq and Yao. Newbutler and Posey are a vast improvement over Bonzi and Oldbutler. If we can get the starting 5 healthy for the playoffs we will be very very tough.
Not a strategy
Byron had Devin foul because he thought we had one to give.
http://www.hornets247.com
Didn't we?
Or did the in-arena people screw it up again? The other night Toronto went from 0 to 5 in ONE PLAY. They need to get on the ball with the display there…
http://hornetshype.com
None to give
Byron couldn’t have thought we had one to give. Not less than 30 seconds before, Marks had fouled Foye, which led to the free throws which put Minny ahead. That foul was the first in the last two minutes, meaning any subsequent fouls were shooting fouls.
As a strategy, I’m not sure if fouling was helpful or not. What’s a higher percentage: Telfair making a three, or Love tipping in a free throw? Of course, it helps when Telfair can’t even draw iron.
ESPN play-by-play...
shows that Devin’s foul was the fifth of the quarter (possibly sixth if Sean Mark’s “illegal defense” from the 2:44 mark was a penalty).
I think the jury’s still out on whether or not this is an effective strategy. I think it certainly can be, but only in certain situations. For instance, if Byron didn’t trust our rotation skills on D (which actually looked pretty good last night), fouling made sense. Additionally, with Jefferson out of the game, our chances of the Hornets rebounding a missed free throw improved dramatically.
The real question is had the strategy back-fired, would we be skewering Byron right now? Kind of puts it in the same stratosphere of 4th and 1 decision-making in football.
http://www.hometownhornets.blogspot.com/
Yep, I have to say it was good strategy
I don’t think whether a strategy is good or not should depend on the outcome. The strategy’s viability is determined by whether the odds were calculated correctly and then exploited. In this case, they definitely were.
“What’s a higher percentage: Telfair making a three, or Love tipping in a free throw?”
Definitely the three. First off, anybody on the Wolves could have taken that 3 (not just Telfair), and the Wolves shoot 34% on the season. New Orleans allows around a 37% three point percentage, and that number has been even higher minus Paul/West/Chandler. So in essence, a three point look is likely to have around 35% success (this would be the low estimate, assuming that our three defense magically becomes a little better, and that the red hot Ryan Gomes doesn’t get the play drawn up for him).
On the other hand, Kevin Love has a 16.6% offensive rebound rate, and Minnesota has a 29.2% rate overall. That number is empirically lower on free throw rebounds… and even if you assume that they do get the rebound, there’s still the aspect of taking and making a shot. So we’re talking probably around ~25% chance that they score on a tip-in. I think Byron would have a strong case that fouling was the best option. (The final piece of supporting evidence being our team FT%. Making it a FT shooting contest would be a great option for us also.)
How does the league determine what is suspendable and what is not?
I know refs can’t… but does the league look at intent? As dumb as it was… I think its pretty clear that West didn’t intend to knock Miller in the head like that.
Agreed
Very, very, VERY stupid, but I think it’s clear the intention wasn’t to clobber Miller on the head. Like the commentators pointed out, Miller had a really high dribble going, and West had the stupid idea of trying to hit it.
I guess they determine suspension based on how physically violent the foul looks, not based on intent. Which I can’t really argue with, since intent can be such a nebulous term. But ugh… no West : (

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