A Somber Wednesday, but a Shiny Graph!

by Rohan on Mar 17, 2009 11:31 PM CDT in Analysis

Tough being a Hornets fan right about now. We had so many expectations, and now we really don't have anything to blame- not injuries, not scheduling, etc- but some major underachieving.

But it's time to move on. I think I got most of it out of my system in the CHI game recap; like chandlerfan said in the game thread, it's time to simply sit back and watch how far this team can take us. No huge expectations- if we win, sweet, if we lose, fine.

On that note, here's an interesting comparison that many people are bringing up.

Peja Stojakovic vs. Julian Wright

Before I get started, I should point out this FanPost from nikkoewan. It describes a way we could use Peja off the bench, minimize CP's minutes, and still put out a very efficient team. And the chart is pretty cool.

The idea of Peja off the bench is one that was actually brought up last year, during the playoffs. I remember someone on here (or maybe it was me) remarking that since Bruce Bowen shut down Peja so easily, it might be worth having Peja coming off the bench and matching up with a lesser defender. It's probably a more viable option now than it was then.

I've been brushing aside the common sentiment that Peja's absence has significantly impacted the team. With Butler shooting the ball so well, and JuJu throwing down a few dunks here and there, Peja's absence wasn't among our biggest issues. But the numbers do suggest otherwise.

This is a graph of Julian starts by Game Score. Julian's Game Scores are the little blue dots, while Peja's 08-09 and 07-08 season average Game Score are drawn in. It's a small sample thus far, but Julian has only outplayed Peja's average season outcome twice in his starting stretch. He's only outplayed Peja's averages from last year once. Overall, Peja's absence is probably a lot more of a hinderance than I originally gave it credit for.

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intangibles

we are forgetting the intagibles of juju. although peja provides more offense, he does not give nearly as much hustle, as much rebounds( remember that the hornets had a Def Rating of 88 something when juju started). but still.

question though, if juju just broke peja’s scoring average once and twice, who gets the points? or are we scoring less?

by nikkoewan on Mar 18, 2009 12:18 AM CDT reply actions

Oh, sorry for the ambiguity

‘Game Score’ is basically a per game version of PER, so it captures all offensive stats, and blocks and steals. But I do agree with you, JuJu is the more valuable defender due to his hustle for loose balls, etc.

The offense has been less efficient without Peja. I’m not sure if the raw scoring numbers bear that out (due to variation in game pace), but the net points/possession has definitely been down.

by Rohan on Mar 18, 2009 12:47 AM CDT up reply actions

yes, but...

I would be interested to see how this compares per dollar. Peja making $12.5mil is much different than JuJu’s $1.9mil. Without Peja, we could a acquire a quality player to rest TC and give some valuable big-man minutes. Peja isn’t even the best perimeter shooter on team anymore (see: Posey, Butler). @Hive, I think what all of us are feeling is not a straight up comparison but instead just a cost-benefit analysis.

I realize the purposes of evaluating the impact of his injury and I agree with your premise that it is not a good thing. Sometimes I just wonder if paying a 31-year old jumpshooter who has trouble adequately defending most starting small forwards is the right fit for the Hornets.

by Marcus Aurelius on Mar 18, 2009 1:53 AM CDT reply actions

Well of course he is overpaid, at least at this point in his career

If he was still in his prime I wouldn’t have a problem with that salary. But of course he’s on the decline..

Still… I don’t think that’s the point. We are stuck with Peja for now… and hes still really important to how the Hornets play offense. Not having Peja seems to come close to crippling the Hornets O… especially if Posey and Butler are not hitting their outside shots (which they haven’t been doing the past couple of games, and in fact Peja out probably prevents those guys from getting as many good looks since the defense doesn’t have to concentrate on Peja.)

by Caleb462 on Mar 18, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions