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Stats 105: Playoffs

People have a lot of vague conceptions about the playoffs. It's more physical. More defense is played. Half court offense is far more prevalent than transition offense. It's harder to shoot, since attempts are contested more heavily. Et cetera.

Time to put some numbers on those claims.

Below are a bunch of graphs. They depict team performance in a variety of categories during the last decade. The comparisons are between playoff teams during that respective regular season and that playoffs. This way, an absolute comparison can be made, and the noise created by lesser, non-playoff teams is ignored.

1. Overall Efficiency decreases by 1.422 points per 100 possessions.

Ortg_medium 

This confirms something we often hear: teams step up their D in the postseason. 2004 produced a stunning rate of defensive efficiency while 2006 seems to have been an aberration. Overall, though, offensive gameplans need to be more complex than in the regular season.

 

Star-divide

2. Teams use 1.922 fewer possessions per game.

  Pace_medium

Another one that confirms an anecdotal observation. The pace is significantly slowed in the postseason. It's also interesting that slower paced teams have performed very well in the playoffs through the course of the last decade while faster pace teams have tended to fizzle out (with the exception of Los Angeles). It's another question entirely as to whether that's due to those slower pace teams being inherently better or slower paces teams adapting better to the natural slow pace.

3. Effective Field Goal Percentage decreases by 1.333%

Efg_medium

This goes hand in hand with decreased offensive efficiency. Field goal defense seems to be the number one component, leading to that decline (especially consider that teams improve turnover rate and rebound rates stay almost constant). I should note that three point percentages stay literally identical in the playoffs and the regular season. This suggests that teams convert fewer attempts closer to the hoop and in the paint; conversely, defenses converge on driving players far more quickly.

4. Teams turn the ball over .344% less.

 

Tov_medium

There's no real difference in playoff and season turnovers. It seems counter intuitive at first. However, the slower pace could explain some of this, since teams are far more deliberate in how they use their possessions. Thus, turnover rate is one of the few offensive statistics that isn't adversely affected.

5. Assists decrease by 2.733%

Ast_medium

This one's either very surprising or very unsurprising depending on how you look at it. It's strange because there's a tendency to think of assists and turnovers as "opposites." On the other hand, it confirms what we see observationally: there is a lot of one-on-one basketball being played in the playoffs, between "superstars" and "shut down defenders." Ball movement is a lot more difficult to generate, so a team that can swing the ball around constantly would seem to have a valuable advantage.

6. Team Free Throw/Field Goal increases by 2.26 FT/FG.

Ftfg_medium

FT/FG is generally a good indicator of whether teams are driving to the hoop or settling for shots. So this could be telling us that players are more likely to drive than to settle. On the other hand, it could also be telling us that teams get into the penalty earlier in quarters. Who knows.

7. Team Free Throws per Possession increase by 2.57.

Pf_medium

Teams foul more. There's more contact. No surprise here.

****

In essence, the NBA game is quite markedly different in the postseason. All of these differences are fueled by heightened player intensity; these graphs are simply a way to quantify how that intensity manifests itself on the floor. Why that intensity change exists is a question for another study, probably more biological in nature (adrenaline, etc) than mathematical.

A team that wants to make a deep run should be able to play at the naturally slower pace, should have good shooters, should have good ball movement, and should be able to hit free throws. Those all sound like things teams should be doing anyways, but those four aspects are specifically magnified. Factors like rebounding and turnovers can play a huge role from a matchup perspective, but they aren't amplified in the translation from season to playoffs. In the end, the best team is always more likely to win. But in close matchups, excelling in playoff-suppressed categories can push a team over the top.

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Comments

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Television and rest

I think the biggest difference in the playoffs is that both players and referees know that every game is televised nationally and watched by many more people. “Superstars” want to impress the new audience, so impressive one-on-one antics get more play. Defenders don’t want to be "posterized: so they commit more fouls.

Referees want to demonstrate various things at various times and may be called upon to extend series for more revenue. I wish that consistency among referees would increase during the playoffs, but I think it actually drops. They start thinking about trying to look like they are doing a good job, which sometimes makes them do a bad job.

Coaches want to demonstrate how important each game is, so they will start their team fouling earlier at the end of the game to try to steal a win.

The other factor is that there is more time to rest between games. More time to recover from injuries and fatigue. In general, a faster-than-normal game for a given team results from sloppy play (turnovers and missed early shots leading to fast breaks) which happens less when players are rested.

by NOEngineer on Apr 18, 2009 2:59 AM CDT reply actions  

Question:

Are the stats from the regular season against all teams or only versus playoff teams? Because if the regular season stats are against everyone, isn’t it natural that offensive numbers would be better against non-playoff teams, and then see a slight dip in the playoffs due to the stiffer competition found there?

by m-W on Apr 18, 2009 10:44 AM CDT reply actions  

Yeah

It’s playoff vs. playoff, which is why it took me forever.

by Rohan on Apr 18, 2009 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

wow … great analysis, when i first read i thought that’s why the playoffs are different, but since you did the legwork the data’s pretty useful, and interesting.

by ctalati32 on Apr 18, 2009 7:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

Just found this post...

Linked after our horrible loss. Cool workup on that! Thanks!!!!

by BlazerGal on Apr 19, 2009 1:42 AM CDT reply actions  

Nice analysis, I suppose the 2006 jump can be attributed to Dwayne Wade’s ridiculous amount FTAs.

by Fundefined on Apr 19, 2009 9:46 AM CDT reply actions  

I wonder...

if fatigue is a factor in the slower pace. Do games slow down at the end of the season as well as the playoffs? Is there any correlation between teams that do well at the beginning of the season vs. the end and their playoff performance? Just pondering to avoid doing housework…great analysis.

by janepriceestrada on Apr 19, 2009 12:10 PM CDT reply actions  

Who wins the championship.

2004 = Detroit … 2006 = Miami (& Dallas). The problem of considering the post season is it takes on the flavour of the teams that win, half the teams only play 4 or 5 games, whilst the Teams in the finals play about 20 games. When you have a team that can only win by one strategy, and they do (like Detroit, Don’t get me wrong they fully deserved to beat up on the Lakers, but they were never going to win by out scoring / executing them, only by killer D) it changes the whole stuyle, that is also why the playoffs are more noisy (and they have fewer games). I really liked the work on FTA and Assists, good info there.

I wonder if there is any way we can distinuish between post season stylisitc differences and the fact that every game has at least 1 day off in between. I don’t think fatigue is much of a factor for that reason (but may be at the end of 4th quarter / OT), and you may find pace slows down because of increased OReb%.

by DJE09 on Apr 26, 2009 6:56 PM CDT reply actions  

Great stuff! It was very interesting to see the differences in the numbers.

http://nbaroundtable.wordpress.com/

by NBR on Apr 28, 2009 1:13 AM CDT reply actions  

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