How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Collison
Lots of haterade being drunk in re: this Darren Collison fellow ("9th best PG", etc).
You know what? It was a great pick. This really isn't spin or anything. Last thing I'm going to do is spin the Hornets' front office after the disaster that was Summer 2008.
First, consider the options. It was down to DeJuan Blair or a point guard. Marcus Thornton wasn't in the equation at 21, because no other teams valued him that high. If the Hornets really wanted him that high, they'd have traded down and gotten a 2nd rounder tossed their way. Internally, the front office had made the Blair vs. point guard decision (which turned out to be the right call, as Thornton hung around till 43).
Let's start with Blair. I was super high on him. His rebound rates were mind-boggling, he'd dominated a 7 footer in Thabeet before, and he had apparently gotten into terrific shape. When the decision was made to pass him over, I was startled. Blair filled our biggest need, and some statistics indicated he might be the second best big in the entire draft. How could you possible pass on that? I was not a happy camper.
Then Portland- widely rumored to have traded up to get him- passed on him. Sacramento passed on him. Dallas passed on him. Oklahoma City passed on him. Chicago- widely rumored to be drafting Blair at 16- passed on him at 26. Even the staunchest advocate of Blair had to have recognized something here. And then ten more teams passed. Fifteen times in all, he was passed over. There's some identified or unidentified issue with Blair that teams are scared of. It might be his knees. It might be the fact that his ACL's are supposedly not visible in MRIs do not exist. It might that people don't think his sudden and huge weight loss is sustainable. It might be that he lived on a mostly junk food diet for most of his college career. Sure, the Spurs wound up taking him. They've been absolute geniuses at drafting. But this smells more of "he couldn't have dropped any lower" than it does of the Spurs knowing something nobody else does. The Hornets came to the same conclusion that more than half the NBA did. This includes teams that worked him out multiple times, with enough scrutiny to considering drafting him in the lottery. I trust in that collective wisdom.
Second, let me address the "8th or 9th best point guard" deal. Collison was absolutely not the 8th or 9th best point guard in this draft. He was the 8th or 9th most hyped point guard in this draft. Huge, huge difference. For two straight years, he'd lost his buzz to more famous backcourt mates at UCLA- Russell Westbrook and Jrue Holiday.
Comparison time.
Player A: 49% eFG, 27% threes, 31% FT/pos, 53% true shooting, 23% ast/pos, 21% TO/pos
Player B: 57% eFG, 40% threes, 29% FT/pos, 62% true shooting, 38% ast/pos, 20% TO/pos
Who ya got?
Player A is Tyreke Evans, the first point guard taken in The Draft of the Point Guard. Player B is Darren Collison, the last point guard of the first round taken in the Draft of the Point Guard.
How about the next non-Rubio (total wild card) point guard off the board?
Jonny Flynn: 52% eFG, 32% threes, 37% FT/pos, 57% true shooting, 41% Ast/pos, 21% TO/pos
D. Collison : 57% eFG, 40% threes, 29% FT/pos, 62% true shooting, 38% ast/pos, 20% TO/pos
Looks pretty even to me. Here are all the non-Euro points (Jennings, Rubio) taken in round 1:
| Player | eFG | 3P | FT/pos | TS | Ast/pos | TO/pos |
| Tyreke Evans | 49% | 27% | 31% | 53% | 23% | 21% |
| Jrue Holiday | 50% | 31% | 20% | 53% | 42% | 25% |
| Eric Maynor | 52% | 36% | 37% | 58% | 32% | 16% |
| Ty Lawson | 61% | 47% | 47% | 66% | 51% | 15% |
| Jeff Teague | 55% | 44% | 43% | 62% | 22% | 20% |
| Jonny Flynn | 51% | 32% | 37% | 57% | 41% | 21% |
| Darren Collison | 57% | 40% | 29% | 62% | 38% | 20% |
Ty Lawson is clearly not human, but everyone else is more or less on even footing. There are non-statistical components to drafting. Absolutely there are. Collison is a college senior, a category of player that empirically does not do well in the NBA. Flynn, Evans, and especially Holiday are absolutely teeming with upside while Collison has almost no upside. But can anyone definitively say Collison is not a top 5 point in this draft, filled with so many excellent ones? Absolutely not.
Darren Collison was a very good point guard in college for four years. He may be more guaranteed to spell Chris Paul for 12-15 minutes than anyone else in this draft.
Two giant cherries on top of this cake. One, this guarantees Jannero Pargo will not be returning. The second is even more important. This allows New Orleans the freedom to trade Antonio Daniels at any point during the season. Not only that, it provides them with a great amount of leverage they wouldn't have had otherwise. Daniels' 6 million expiring contract is one of the Hornets' biggest trade chips. The drafting of Darren Collison will allow them to maximize its usage.
I love Collison already. So should you.
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Comments
Thank you for the rational analysis with Blair
The Kings have the best bench I’ve seen. There are easily 14 guys on this team good enough for every bench in the league. Now if we could only get some starters, I’d totally jizz in my pants.
Kings fan
by dyshooter182 on Jun 26, 2009 3:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Great post
I’ve been so hard on this front office that I was sabatoging my ability to be a Hornets fan and season ticket holder. I stopped going to games after the botched Tyson trade. I turned on my fellow Hornet fans who kept bashing Tyson and sided with management.
Bower and Scott teamed to ruin a promising young roster. The only reason I renewed my season tickets is because of Chris Paul and the fact that I have 2 of the best season tickets (price/location factored in) in the entire NBA.
Anyhow, the past couple of weeks have gone a LONG way to aleving many of my concerns. It wasn’t just the solid, rational draft. It was the fact that the Hornets did not dump Tyson Chandler for 5 cents on the dollar. I pray they will continue to refrain from doing this.
Even if Tyson never comes back close to healthy, you aren’t risking anything by keeping him at this point. The CHANCE that he plays well enough to increase his value or to regain his old form is too valuable to pass on. He’s our 2nd most important player behind Chris Paul, and it isn’t even a debate.
So the Hornets are back on the right track. Unless a great deal for Peja or Chandler comes along, we’ll have a similar core. Maybe we’ll move Daniels or Butler to clear up some luxury tax issues. We probably don’t need to waste money on a panic signing of the “Headless Chicken”.
I’m very happy.
by YoungFella on Jun 26, 2009 9:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes, and not only did they draft this year
But they picked up an extra guy by getting back into the second round. It has to be nice to see them realize their errors (cheap bench labor age 21 > cheap bench labor age 33).
http://hornetshype.com
by ticktock6 on Jun 26, 2009 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Need moar Hornetshype plz
Thank you.
by Caleb462 on Jun 26, 2009 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Hype didn't get enough sleep
And had to work this morning.
http://hornetshype.com
by ticktock6 on Jun 26, 2009 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was okay with the pick...
Liked it more the more I read about Collison, and liked it even more once we were able to trade for Thorton. Collison + Thorton is a solid draft.
Now… I do take a little issue with this: “I trust in that collective wisdom.” Collective wisdom regarding the draft has so often been wrong…. that’s my only issue. The collective wisdom regarded Rashard Lewis, Manu Ginobli and Michael Redd as second rounders. The collective wisdom valued Darko over Bosh, Wade and Carmelo and Deron Williams over Chris Paul and Marvin Williams over both of those guys, etc, etc. Still.. I get your point, and obviously Blair was a riskier pick… so I’m fine with it. If he starts beasting it with San Antonio I may groan loudly… but hey, that’s how things go sometimes. Excellent analysis as always AtH.
by Caleb462 on Jun 26, 2009 1:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Front offices are dumb, no doubt
The way I see it as different from guys like Ginobili falling is this: literally every one of those 15 teams that passed on Blair checked him out again and again and again. Some teams like the Bulls had him in multiple times, even squeezing him in for a third workout right before draft day.
The thing with guys like Ginobili dropping was that teams didn’t look at him extensively enough. Now obviously not every team can be expected to thoroughly check out random Argentinians, and that’s why the Spurs lucked out. The scrutiny Blair faced is what sets this apart to me.
by atthehive on Jun 26, 2009 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah okay, thanks for the clarification
Makes sense.
by Caleb462 on Jun 26, 2009 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes and No
I agree with your take regarding Ginobili but teams do miss on players. Just last year in the 2nd round, teams drafted some very viable players in Mario Chalmers, Mbah Moute, DeAndre Jordan and Chris Douglas Roberts. Boozer in his draft was taken in the 2nd round.
Now I’m not claiming Blair will become anything great but his chances of being productive are pretty good. This guy held his own and then some against some great Big East competition (including schooling Thabeet). His surgically repaired knees gave him no problems whatsoever (missed 1 game in two seasons at Pitt). This offseason, he’s addressed his weight by losing quite a bit. You know what he was doing while watching the draft from a hotel last night? Working out in a gym.
There are big guys you need to be concerned about (say busts like Tractor Traylor) but this guy seems to have what many lack – heart. I really think a lot of teams will regret not nabbing him.
I'm no commie, but the Reds shall be the best again!
by RedHopeful on Jun 26, 2009 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My preemtive response to Hollinger's bashing of the Hornets' draft
John “Overrated” Hollinger bashed our draft on ESPN. You’ll probably read about it somewhere soon. Here’s my response:
On the surface he makes a good case. When you dig deeper, not so much.
A.) The odds of getting a productive big with the 21st pick in the worst draft in recent NBA history are about 2%. If you want to play the Blair card you’re being disingenuous. FIFTEEN TEAMS passed on him after the Hornets. The entire NBA could have traded to get him in the 2nd and nobody did until he landed with the Spurs. He would have been a HUGE reach at #21. Arguably the biggest reach in the past 3 NBA drafts. So that’s a shit argument. The last thing the cash-strapped Hornets need to do is give a 3-year guaranteed deal to a kid who eats fast food 4 meals a day and has no ACL’s to join fellow guaranteed injury risks Tyson Chandler (foot/ankle), Peja Stojakovic (back/knees), David West (back), and James Posey (old age).
B.) The 2nds we traded for Thornton are no big deal. 2nd in the NBA are easily attainable. We can get one back as a throw-in to any future deal we make. It’s a non-issue. Thornton’s local appeal and ability to help “mine” the Baton Rouge market is worth the nominal fee we paid to get him.
C.) The draft picks essentially saved the Hornets another $10MM as we can now trade Daniels and Butler/MoPete with relatively no worries.
Dig a little deeper. The Hornets had a solid draft. 4 days ago we were freaking out because Hornets insider Gerry V. was dropping strong hints that the Hornets would again sell their pick. They didn’t. They stepped up and made the team better and more financially nimble.
by YoungFella on Jun 26, 2009 4:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Just read that
Agreed with your points.
A) Yup on Blair. Hollinger also seemingly implies that there were other non-Blair options available. Yeah? Who? BJ Mullens, who Hollinger himself slams a couple paragraphs before the Hornets? Taj “Chris Paul will outrebound me” Gibson? If Hollinger’s gonna slam the pick for not taking a need position, he needs to at least give a few options (of which there were none…)
B) I couldn’t believe this when I read it. Seriously… trading away future 2nds is a bad thing? Since when? From a business standpoint, the value of a future second rounder is always less than a current second rounder. Given how valueless the average second round pick is, this is absolutely true. We traded away basically nothing for a nothing pick, with which we took a guy we valued as a pick in the 20’s. That’s a good trade. Maybe you can criticize our valuation of Thornton (not enough evidence for that yet, I don’t think) but to slam the trade itself is foolish.
C) Exactly. This is the BIG thing everyone is glossing over. All these places that are grading our draft a C or D or whatever else are totally missing the point- we got two decent, hopefully league average players AND we’ve set ourselves up for financial flexibility. The second is just is important as the first.
Hollinger’s analysis is always great, but his draft analysis fell flat for one reason. Before the draft, he had his list of best draft options. I had no problem with that. Those were the guys his system picked and he defended them well. His post draft article is pretty much him pimping those same guys again. A player does not succeed in the NBA purely because of his own skills. He succeeds because of his own skills and because of his situation. A good draft pick isn’t always the guy who some general NCAA ranker ranks the highest. It’s the guy that fits, and that’s what the Hornets got.
by atthehive on Jun 26, 2009 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Congratulations
on getting DC in the draft. While I admit I am a very big Laker fan, I’m more importantly a diehard Bruin, and in the past four years Collison has become my all-time favorite Bruin. Pushing past my biased nature, I’m very glad to see that some Hornets fans were able to see past the bull about Collison being the “9th best point guard in the draft.” I hope he is able to learn from the best point guard in the league and help your team out for a long time to come (and then eventually come back to LA to join the Lakers).
by BruinDrums on Jun 26, 2009 6:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Good point
I still would have like them to take a shot at Blair, but maybe this is the best move.
I think the hornets needs are: to play behind
1. Big man to play behind Tyson and West.
2. Two guard that can score
3. Back up point guard.
I hope Thornton pans out.
I think Collison will excel.
We can only hope that Rasual, Mo Pete and Peja contribute.
by njhaines on Jun 27, 2009 4:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
One other thing
Collison is a hard, hard worker. He was also a defensive sieve in college. Think going up against arguably the best point guard in the league isn’t going to vastly improve him and challenge him? Not only that, he gives Paul a gritty competitor to battle during practice as well. Nobody on the Hornets expects Collison to one day be a star. They want him to be Paul’s backup. He is absolutely perfect to fill that role. When he comes in, the second unit will be in very capable hands. I really wanted this pick before the draft, and am ecstatic now that the Bugs have gone out and made it.
by Dodgerblue15 on Jun 27, 2009 6:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't mean to be a hater here, but....
I didn’t like this pick at all… First off let me say that I’m from the California and had access to all PAC-10 basketball games. This year I mainly focused on UCLA, USC, Washington, ASU and Arizona… anyway…
My thoughts on Collison is that he’s not very effective. His handles aren’t what a senior at UCLA should be, he’s not really a play maker, not strong and looks foolish in front of higher competition.
He’s fast and has the benefit of 4 years at a top ranked college – but that’s because he wasn’t good enough to leave before his senior year – ala Wesbrook and Holiday.
Now of course you are set at the PG with CP3, but a solid backup is important.
These are a group of players I would have chosen over NC.
Cassipri (toughness) Ellington (general skill of the game) Blair (great big man who SCHOOLED thabeet)… and probably sam young, summers, meeks, budinger, green, calathes, aj price and patty mills.
This was just a puzzling pick.
I’m not hoping he fails at all… but it seems like a waste of a first rounder.
by Sricko on Jul 1, 2009 5:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Correction of typo on 3rd paragraph....
“… group of players I would have chosen over DC**”
by Sricko on Jul 1, 2009 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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