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The Jerryd Bayless Trade

Let's start with the details.

Portland receives: $2.3 million trade exception, Conditional 1st round pick
NOLA receives: Jerryd Bayless

As SBNation's Blazer's Edge reported first yesterday, the pick is top-7 protected in 2011, top-8 protected in 2012, 2013, and 2014. After that, the first round pick becomes two second round picks (2015 and 2016). For all intents and purposes, unless the Hornets are really, really bad this year (Chris Paul going down bad), they'll be handing their 2011 first round draft pick to Portland. 

My gut reaction was one of elation. My gut has also been known to alternate between "stupid" and "hungry," though, so fair warning. Let's be jumpsing. 

Star-divide

I've been talking of the Hornets' expiring trade exceptions for a while now (initially accumulated through the Rasual Butler, Hilton Armstrong, Tyson Chandler, etc. trades, though some have expired). It seemed like New Orleans would never get around to using them, but this trade was indeed facilitated by a trade exception, since New Orleans has no outbound salaries. It's good to see the team make use of an asset that many teams see waste away (and "many teams" includes former incarnations of the Hornets' front office).

We'll talk more about Jerryd Bayless, the player, over the next few days. For now, a cursory look at Bayless' statistics in 2009-2010

Age: 22
PER: 14.3
USG%: 24.9
ORtg: 108
FTA/36: 6.7
AST%: 22.1
TOV%: 13.8
eFG%: 44.4
TS%: 53.4

Bayless isn't the most efficient scorer from the field, but due to his extremely good free throw figures, he posted decent true shooting. He creates a lot of offense, and he took good care of the ball last year. It's important to note that his statistics saw a significant spike in efficiency from his rookie to sophomore years. Essentially, Jerryd Bayless is Jannero Pargo, if Jannero Pargo was good at what he did (though the way they get their shots and the location of their shots is quite different).

Bayless has also seen significant time at point guard. Via 82games.com, a break down of his minutes in 2008-2009, and 2009-2010:

2008-2009
Point Guard: 433 minutes
Off Guard: 157 minutes

2009-2010
Point Guard: 513 minutes
Off Guard: 708 minutes 

Bayless is certainly the favorite to back up Chris Paul full time. There's a case for Bayless as a full time off guard that creates shots for himself, but it's unlikely he gets that role with Belinelli and Thornton already aboard (and no, I don't think this trade indicates that Thornton is available). Bayless has shown that he can be efficient as a lead guard, so he should get the role. Willie Green will hopefully be relegated to third string shooting guard, and Curtis Jerrells will presumably take up the same role at point.

Was acquiring Bayless worth the first round pick though? That's a little more complicated. 

The odds are pretty good that Portland acquires the 1st in 2011 or 2012. I'm essentially treating this trade as a mid-round selection for Jerryd Bayless. And given that, we can examine the trade for a range of potential draft pick values. 

Referring back to this "quantifying the draft" post, the average 8th pick produces 13.4 win shares over his first four years. The average 16th pick (where the Hornets would land if all the "just missing the playoffs" predictions come true)* produces 9.0 win shares over his first four seasons. If we treat Bayless as a "rookie" for the purposes of this exercise and project his next four seasons (2010-2014), the trade looks quite decent. Bayless produced 2.7 win shares in 2009-2010 over 1300 minutes. If we assume a slight uptick in games played or a reasonable growth curve for a 22 year old, 12 win shares over four years is a reasonable expectation. 

*Which they won't, guys!!! 

It's very important to note the disparity in risk here. Even if we know what the 9th pick or 17th pick or 238th pick produces on average, it's exactly that: an average. There's a real possibility that a player produces close to nothing. With Bayless, that risk is minimized compared to a rookie. We know what he can do at the NBA level. That relative lack of risk has to be factored into any average win share - expected win share analysis. 

(Much of this analysis is based on placing faith in Bayless' 2009-2010 season. Monty Williams is once again Bayless' coach and will likely use him in similar (if not more expanded) roles).

Another way to look at it: let's say the Hornets struggle this year and finish with the NBA's 20th best record. They'd have the 10th selection in June. Obviously draft quality and depth varies from year to year; from our current perspective in October 2010, however, we'd expect the 10th selection to produce around 12 win shares from 2010-2014, with a size-able standard deviation. We expect Jerryd Bayless, similarly aged to a 2011 college senior, to also produce around 12 win shares from 2010-2014, with a much, much smaller standard deviation. 

Essentially, the Hornets took their June 2011 pick in October 2010 and lowered their risk significantly. And that's in one of the worst case scenarios. 

Top it all off with the fact that Jerryd Bayless still has the potential to become a borderline-star type player himself and that the Hornets fill a desperate need position immediately. Interestingly, I really do think this is a trade that benefits both teams. Portland clears roster space, gets a first rounder for a guy that perhaps wasn't the greatest fit, and acquires a trade exception (and if there's a front office that'll know what to do with one, it's theirs). 

I wasn't initially a fan of Dell Demps' last trade, but Jason Smith is gradually turning me into a believer. This one I loved the moment I saw it, and the numbers back it up.

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JBay

will be realy good, possibly great alongside CP3.

Just do not bank on him as a real PG. He is a great scorer, not a great distributor. He does not keep his head up on breaks, and is prone to going on a drive that gets cut off with no where to go. On the flip side he can get to the line seemingly at will at times and he works hard all the time.

If CP3 can get JBay’s passing skills to improve (hitting players in their shooting pocket is currently a struggle for him) you will have a nice combo guard that is useful behind a Paul because you can put him on the court with Paul and he would be adequate picking up spot PG minutes.. All I know is I do not look forward to playing JBay cause the kid can go off on any night…

"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man

by PDXBuckeye on Oct 24, 2010 1:40 AM CDT reply actions  

This is an excellent trade

Because of the fact that we only had to give up a draft pick. Also cp3 said he wanted to win now and a future 1st round pick isn’t really going to help us win. But now we have a decent backup and security if cp3 was to go down with an injury. I didn’t mind Willie Green at backup pg but Jerryd is a massive improvement over Willie. So I’m loving this trade and loving Dell Demps.

by Mayooo on Oct 24, 2010 1:44 AM CDT via mobile reply actions  

:-((

I <3 Jerryd….I will miss him.

by prezofdeath on Oct 24, 2010 1:51 AM CDT reply actions  

Can I please make the Hornets my second team?

I don’t want to bandwagon, but man, Monty was my favorite Blazers coach and Bayless my second favorite Blazer…I’m actually going to be watching the Hornets this year!

"We Believe" - Rudy Fernandez

by TheGreatMon on Oct 24, 2010 3:30 AM CDT reply actions  

More than happy to have you

There’s plenty of room on the Hornets bandwaggon – not many are hitching themselves a team most people expect to miss the playoffs, haha.

by Brian Ball on Oct 24, 2010 3:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

Exactly....

Last year wasn’t easy for Hornet fans….
This year I am jacked up about the season starting!!!!!!!!!

by 3ptace on Oct 24, 2010 9:14 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Who needs wins when you have moxie?

Ok, well, EVERYONE needs wins, but the Hornets are awesome. How can you not like a team with CP3?

"We Believe" - Rudy Fernandez

by TheGreatMon on Oct 25, 2010 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions  

Bayless is the best dressed man, possibly the most professional guy in the NBA.

He stressed spending lots of time working out and practicing. Stressed being a representative of his family and of his team. Plus he has a Michael Jordan heart on the court.

Perhaps the most important thing I remember about Bayless is that when most of the other Blazers were shrinking from the moment in last year’s playoffs, Bayless was fighting with everything he had to win every game. He didn’t care about the name in front of him, he only cared about the score at the end of the game.

He isn’t going to replace Chris Paul of anything like that, but he certainly won’t let you down.

Proud to be a Republican.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><>

by staylost on Oct 24, 2010 8:09 AM CDT reply actions  

Awesome

It’s going to be great rooting for him.

by Rohan on Oct 24, 2010 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

Don't forget the first thing he bought when he signed his contract

Most guys get cars, houses, gold-plated X-boxes.
Jerryd? He went to Europe and bought himself some really (really) nice suits.
He’s a class guy, and I’ll miss him this year.

by TheThinWhiteDuke on Oct 25, 2010 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions  

Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress agrees with your assessment re the 2011 draft
Great move by Hornets trading for Jerryd Bayless. 22 year-old scoring machine w/upside is far better asset than a 2011 pick in 10-15 range.
Bayless and Paul are the perfect backcourt duo, and Bayless/Thornton is pretty nice too when Paul rests. Bayless could average 15-17 ppg.

The value to Portland is in freeing up time for players coach McMillan actually likes and knows how to use, and getting an asset to trade again in a larger deal for that “missing piece” (i.e. a long-term starting point guard) down the road. Sadly, JBay was not long for our team. He’ll be a good NBA pro with similar potential like way more touted guards like his draft peers Westbrook and Rose.

"Listening to the media only increases your odds of failing at whatever you are doing" - Mark Cuban

by Norsktroll on Oct 24, 2010 8:43 AM CDT reply actions  

Yeah,

Portland definitely has the assets now to make a big trade, between two first rounders, almost $15 million expiring in Miller and Pryz, plus any “extra” talent they might want to toss in.

by Rohan on Oct 24, 2010 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

positive on the trade

I am positive on the trade, though it’s another “win now” move.

Think describing Bayless as a Pargo type is pretty much right on, though Bayless may be a bit better quality than Pargo. This does help shore up the backup guard position and gives us more depth at SG.

Still, I wonder whether playing with a score first PG will affect Marcus Thornton adversely, but hopefully it won’t be too much of an issue. In any case, he’ll probablty be better for MT than Green, who’s a SG trying to play backup PG.

by MZURK on Oct 24, 2010 10:52 AM CDT reply actions  

I would be a better option...

than Willie Green…Bayless still has soooo much upside to develop…..

by 3ptace on Oct 24, 2010 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions  

"win now" move

I thought that’s what the Hornets were trying to do. Show Chris Paul that they are committed to winning NOW. So trying to win now is a bad thing now? ?????

by QueenBee on Oct 24, 2010 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

well

In principle, “win now” sounds good, but there’s a cost to it. For example, we had a PG in Darren Collison who some were projecting to be a future All-Star last season and CP’s heir apparent, and we swapped him for Trevor Ariza—a good player who may have a bigger impact this year for NO, but who has been around the league for a number of years and who nobody is realistically imagining will ever be an All-Star. Another example, is trading away draft picks for the players that we acquired.

Also there is a timing component to “win now” that is impotant. It generally makes more sense to implement the strategy if a team is one or two pieces short of a championship run than if it is in a major rebuilding phase. Charlotte Bobcats are a good example. They loaded up their roster with veterans last couple of years and managed to squeak into the playoffs as a result. That’s fine and dandy but what will be the starts of the future on that team? DJ Augustin? That Henderson dude whose claim to fame is beating MJ in a game of “horse”?

NO is somewhere in between. Most people wouldn’t have put us before the recent changes as a team that was missing one or two pieces to win a championship, though we were not exactly a rebuilding project either. So it’s uncertain yet whether the “win now” to appease CP approach is the right approach.

by MZURK on Oct 25, 2010 5:32 AM CDT up reply actions  

This isn't a win-now move at all

it’s trading a draft pick for a guy who fits with your team needs and is already developed.

WEAVER! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

by Prevenge on Oct 26, 2010 12:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

win win

This appears to be a deal that fans of both teams like.

For Blazer fans, the main regret is that you can’t help but like a guy who is such a hard worker. But most of us felt it was a good trade because the Blazers never did figure out exactly where Bayless fit into the lineup, and they had a logjam of guards they had to break up. (some fans complain that after trading Bayless there is STILL a logjam at guard)

NO on the other hand needed another guard, and on a team where he is needed, Bayless will get the opportunity to develop to his full potential. What that potential is has yet to be seen. Just a little more than what he’s shown so far is the pessimistic scenario, and a solid starting-caliber player is the optimistic scenario.

And, I concur with the view of another commenter who pointed out that they as a Blazer fan will now also be a New Orleans fan.

Since becoming a Blazer fan after moving to the Portland area in 2008, I have also become a Villanova fan on account of Dante Cunningham, and I will be rooting for the Timberwolves and Hornets on account of Martell Webster and Jerryd Bayless.

I can’t see being a Nets fan but I will be rooting for Travis Outlaw. And of course I won’t be a Laker fan but I do hope Steve Blake has a good career there.

And if I get so bummed out with the knucklehead Blazer team that could turn out to be the biggest NBA underperformer of 2010-2011 (because with all their individual talent, there is a risk that as a team they are going to be less than the sum of their parts), well then I will be looking to Minnesota and New Orleans to provide me with something to root for this season.

by LanceS on Oct 24, 2010 11:40 AM CDT reply actions  

Nice

Looking forward to having you on this year

by Rohan on Oct 24, 2010 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

welcome

I haven’t been on this board all that board, but anyway, welcome.

by MZURK on Oct 25, 2010 5:34 AM CDT up reply actions  

Haha you're right

Especially dumb on my part since the lottery is, by definition, teams that missed the playoffs.

Average value of the 14th pick is 9.9 win shares, so it is a slight increase.

by Rohan on Oct 24, 2010 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

let's see

Well, with a PhD in engineering I should be able to figure this out. 16 teams make the playoffs. 14 teams fail to make the playoffs. The worst team gets pick 30. The 11th worst team thus gets pick 20. The 14th team would thus appear to get pick 17.

??

by LanceS on Oct 24, 2010 11:45 AM CDT reply actions  

worst teams gets pick 1

Michael Jordan is the Nicolas Batum of America
"I was like, 'Wow, we get a run.'-Felix Hernandez
Artis Gilmore for Hall of Fame
due to his low support around Bedge, Rudy Fernandez is temporarily my new favorite player
"The Portland Trailblazers are champions of the basketball world!"-Mike Breen, sometime in June, 2011

by thomasikehara on Oct 24, 2010 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

Actually

Worst team gets top 4 protection, as the top 3 spots are selected through the lottery. The worst team does receive the highest statistical probability to win the first pick, but it’s not guaranteed

by Billy Hoyle on Oct 25, 2010 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

whoops- backwards math

whoops, got that backward.

If you had no lottery, worst team gets pick 1.

Also note that the worst team is the 30th ranked team. It’s rank + pick = 31.

Best team gets pick 30. Note again, team rank + pick = 31.

Now the best team to NOT make the playoffs is the 17th ranked team.

31-17 = pick 14.

Yes, tomkanti is right, the best team not to make the playoffs gets pick 14.

by LanceS on Oct 24, 2010 11:50 AM CDT reply actions  

Blazers fan here. I'm kind of pissed about this trade. Enjoy Bayless. We certainly have.

You are getting a player with a tireless work ethic. jerryd was commonly reported as first in, last out at the gym. You get a young, gifted athlete who has a lightning quick first step and powerful squat body that could take punishment around the rim. You get a true competitor, a guy who is not afraid of anyone. I never saw him back down to anyone. He also never gave up in games. We were getting blown out by Phoenix in the playoffs last year, and Bayless almost single-handedly brought us back into the game. Phoenix had to put the starters back in.

You are getting a player that still has the upside of a game-changer, or even an all-star. Yes, Bayless still has holes in his game, but in the right situation I think he will flourish. Have fun rooting for him. I think you all will like him a lot.

FYI we gave him several nicknames; Rex, B Rex, Jay-Bay, and Bayless face were my favorites. Rex and B rex due to his ferocious screams and stubby little arms. Jay-Bay is self-explanatory, and Bayless face because the Bayless face because Jerryd’s face only seems to have one expression; intense. Enjoy, and we’ll see you this year!

"Conan, what is best in life?"
"Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of the women."

by dario argento on Oct 24, 2010 3:32 PM CDT reply actions  

I just can't believe...

how much younger and athletic the Hornets have gotten in the offseason. Man oh man. Last year we went into the season with about 5 guys on the roster aged 30+. Peja is 33 and will be all season and West just turned 30 in August so he’ll be 30 all season as well. 2 players 30+ down from about 5 is pretty good. I mean every team needs a vet or 2 but when your roster starts to almost look like a retirement home, it’s time to make changes and Demps is doing so.

by QueenBee on Oct 24, 2010 3:56 PM CDT reply actions  

Belinelli/Thorton

far from being a lock at SG though. Considering Marco’s spotty career and Thornton’s struggles this preseason, one has to believe Monty won’t hesitate to run Bayless at SG at times.

On another note, was daydreaming and wouldn’t it be nice if we still had a healthy Tyson Chandler on the squad?

by RedHopeful on Oct 24, 2010 5:23 PM CDT reply actions  

I'd rather trade 4....

Dalembert , but I think he is injured right now.

by 3ptace on Oct 24, 2010 7:16 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Bayless is a gritty, tough player

Deff not a PG though. and not much of an outside shooter.

Free markets have long been the basis for a legitimate - though rightly debated - economic policy framework. But they have become little more than a robotically-recited cultural catechism, a mindless mantra mumbled to mask the looting of the nation's resources that is the true purpose of Republican economic policy as demonstrated by the staggering upward transfers of wealth that inevitably occur under Republican regimes. A more complete, conspicuous, catastrophic, and irrefutable repudiation of right wing leaders, right wing policies, and right wing ideology could not possibly be contrived.

by dwarfgoper on Oct 25, 2010 1:32 AM CDT reply actions  

he is a good spot up shooter

better than his numbers indicate

Michael Jordan is the Nicolas Batum of America
"I was like, 'Wow, we get a run.'-Felix Hernandez
Artis Gilmore for Hall of Fame
"The Portland Trailblazers are champions of the basketball world!"-Mike Breen, sometime in June, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015

by thomasikehara on Oct 25, 2010 7:32 AM CDT up reply actions  

JB = fierce

He has a few shortcomings as described above, but you’ll like him because he won’t back down.

by ToplessBlazerDancer3000 on Oct 25, 2010 8:37 AM CDT reply actions  

There's a lot to like, w/ Rex.

Ultimately, you’ll wish he was taller, and longer, but he does get a lot from the tools he was given. His work ethic is outstanding, and his aggression, his going to the hole, is terrific. In time, he’ll get more respect from the officials, and see even more time at the stripe, where he is money.

Bottom line: kid can play. Where? That’s another question.

by damonrayhymer on Oct 25, 2010 10:24 AM CDT reply actions  

but

they can’t have the B Rex nickname

by Billy Hoyle on Oct 25, 2010 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, he doesn't seem to have a natural position

but guys like Allen Iverson and Monta Ellis succeeded….

by RedHopeful on Oct 25, 2010 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Take care of JBaby for me, Nawlins.

Do great Jerryd. I know you’ll give NOLA your heart and they’re lucky to have you. Say hi to Monty for me.

#52

by annthefan on Oct 25, 2010 10:32 AM CDT reply actions  

Trail Blazer fan

Jerryd can play PG. He does have some bad habits like hitting open men with passes that are just off the mark enough to throw their rhythm off. He protects the ball well but on occasion he lowers his head and he will miss guys that are wide open. Other than that he is a decent lead guard with a knack for getting into the paint and when his pull up is falling he can score 20 with ease. With his short wingspan he will never guard decent 2 guards and he will probably never be a great defender against PGs.

by Kaanyr Vhok on Oct 25, 2010 12:02 PM CDT reply actions  

I really enjoyed watching Bayless play in Portland. As mentioned in this post, he is inconsistent at times. Jerryd’s decision making ability with the ball is questionable. He isn’t turnover prone but think of him as a quarterback who doesn’t always see his 3rd-4th progression of receivers. He’s just as likely to look for his own shot as he is to look for the assist. I’m sure this is something Chris Paul will help him with tremendously. Jerryd’s biggest weaknesses are floor vision as a pure PG and length. He has short arms. Our fans affectionately referred to him as T-Rex.

That said, you will never, ever accuse him of being lazy. He works his tail off. Of all the players on the Blazers squad right now, I would easily say he’s top 5 in terms of work ethic. Jerryd was known for late night trips to the practice facilty to get shots up, etc. He really wants to stick in this league and I think the Hornets have a real opportunity to develop him under Monty Williams.

"You know, when you are in the game, you hear 20,000 people behind you, you don't feel anything."
- Nicolas Batum on playing through his shoulder injury during the 2010 playoffs.

by halo_on on Oct 25, 2010 12:23 PM CDT reply actions  

Aren't Portland Fans Great?

Seriously, how many opposing fans go over to other sites to write on behalf of a guy leaving their team? Rarer still, how about that they all mostly agree with intelligent input??

Great stuff fellas!!!

by RedHopeful on Oct 25, 2010 1:22 PM CDT reply actions  

just for comparison's sake

our outgoing “JBay has been traded” thread over at Blazer’s Edge had over 700 comments. We are rabid or something :)

by Billy Hoyle on Oct 25, 2010 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

Portland is a GREAT basketball town

 I always come away impressed with the depth
of knowledge possesed by just the casual fan…cool people fa sho!

by 3ptace on Oct 25, 2010 1:59 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Hmmmm
(and no, I don’t think this trade indicates that Thornton is available).

I think someone is. Thornton, Bellinelli or Pondexter

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Oct 25, 2010 3:42 PM CDT reply actions  

There is some depth

but not as much as you might believe. Pondexter is more of a backup SF who undoubtedly is slated to take Peja’s minutes next year. Although Bayless is a combo guard, it doesn’t necessarily mean we need to trade Thornton or Belinelli anytime soon. I do believe it does give Demps some flexibility if the right deal were to come along (where Thornton would be the likely bait) and paired up with either Peja’s expiring or Okafor’s albatross contract.

by RedHopeful on Oct 25, 2010 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

You can't afford that depth

when you are so terribly thin in the frontcourt. I don’t buy your depth there at all and need in frontcourt trumps depth at SG. But hey, I could be wrong. You’re right about needing to line up someone for the SF, though 6’6" is very small for it these days.
Who knows? Maybe there’s life in Alexander yet?

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Oct 26, 2010 12:58 AM CDT up reply actions  

I know

I won’t be holding my breath. :)

by RedHopeful on Oct 26, 2010 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

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