The NBA Finals start tomorrow night. From a certain perspective, predicting the outcome of the series is a test of what you believe about basketball, and life in general. (Was that dramatic enough?)
What I mean is that I'm picking the Lakers to win this thing in five or six games. Why? They were the better team all season long, by just about any metric you choose, and I have a hard time believing they aren't the better team now. The primary reason any analyst will choose the Celtics to beat the Lakers is analysis based on recent observation far outweighing the rest of the season.
The Celtics are a very good team, and they're playing better than they did at just about any point during the regular season, but counting on them to maintain that level of play for another seven game series is going against simple probability, and it relies upon the conclusion that they've established a new level of greatness now, after having played at less-than-elite levels all year.