Gray Implications
It didn't come as an hour long Decision Special on the Food Network, but Y!'s Marc Spears broke the news today that Gray will be rejoining New Orleans on a two year deal.
My first reaction? Good move. The Hornets get size and rebounding, two things the current roster sorely lacks. Gray's signing may not seem like an obvious step forward, but any other 7', 270 pound signing would have been universally lauded. Gray's always been an efficient offensive player and certainly showed flashes of defensive excellence in his 24 games with us. That's worth the minimum for sure.
The front court may well be finalized at this point. West and Okafor should start at 4 and 5, with Songaila and Gray the primary backups. Brackins will likely challenge Songaila for minutes, and Posey's a far better power forward than small forward, so he'll see some time there too. But these six guys will comprise Chris Paul's front court for the season.
After the jump, a look at how much space this leaves us.
Player
Dollars (in millions)
Chris Paul
14.9
Peja Stojakovic
14.3
Emeka Okafor
11.9
David West
8.3
James Posey
6.5
Darius Songaila
4.8
Julian Wright
2.9
Darren Collison
1.4
Craig Brackins
1.1
Quincy Pondexter
0.9
Marcus Thornton
0.8
Luther Head
1.2
Aaron Gray
1.3
Free Agent #3
---
Free Agent #4
---
Hornets Total
70, 040, 045
Salary Cap
58, 044, 000
Luxury Tax
70, 307, 000
I'm penciling in Gray's 2010-2011 cap hold as his salary. As with Head, we don't have a definitive '10 figure yet, but I can't imagine his contract exceeding $1.5 million. For now, that leaves the Hornets right at the luxury. The team still won't technically need to move anyone (Songaila, Wright, etc) to get under the tax.
With thirteen players now under contract, the Hornets have set themselves up to spend between $4.8 million (Songaila's contract) $7.7 million (Songaila and Wright's contracts) on a single player. This is all operating under the assumption that New Orleans will go into the season with 14 players, as they've done for a while. The order in which free agents are acquired isn't a huge deal. The real issue is that with Travis Outlaw, Tony Allen, Ronnie Brewer, J.J. Reddick, Anthony Morrow, and even Dorell Wright gone, there simply aren't any wings worth that kind of money.
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I highly doubt
We go out and get anyone else at the MLE. I don’t know why but I think moving Songaila/Peja or Wright’s contract would be infinitly difficult if you expect us to dump it.
I’d love for it to happen but I don’t see any team doing it.
Australian Atlanta Falcons Fan EST 2003
Falcons are my life,
Falcons are my soul,
I watch them through all the strife,
Until they get that Superbowl.
Hmm yea I suppose.
So does that mean you think we should go after a MLE? Even if there aren’t many of those players left.
Australian Atlanta Falcons Fan EST 2003
Falcons are my life,
Falcons are my soul,
I watch them through all the strife,
Until they get that Superbowl.
Wait a second, Brewer isn't available?
Since when?
This draft screams Dynasty. If that's the case, then I say, let the Saints Reign begin!
Ohh alrighty
I hear the FO has been inquiring about Marquis Daniels also
This draft screams Dynasty. If that's the case, then I say, let the Saints Reign begin!
Yeah, I saw that
Nothing to get excited about, really. We can get Daniels for close to the minimum, and he’s a swingman. He’s not particularly efficient on offense, even with a really low usage rate. But what do you expect for the minimum?
Besides Brewer
Childress is still out there (though I’ve read that the Suns are about to make an offer his way).
Otherwise, I’m hoping Bower is looking at creating something through a trade.
Disgusting. I don't care how cheap he is. He's Aaron Gray. He sucks. The End.
Making this statement as a point of reference, not as bona fide commentary on currently available centers, I’d take Theo Ratliff, Mikki Moore, Joel Anthony, even Nathan Jawai over this piece of absolute shi*.
No exaggeration, he, in my opinion, is one of the worst players in the league today. Don’t worry, I’m not over-reacting & think we’re signing him as part of a permanent plan (do we really have one? It’s getting harder to believe with unambiguous evidence/without large doses of “just have faith in Bower as GM”), but he will apparently be a big part of the team as the first & as of now only true center off the bench.
Just look at his career stats. & make a reasonable inference of what that will = when given more significant time as a primary backup C rather than an NBA walk-on a la Scalabrine like Chicago wisely (under)utilized him. Sure he’s cheap, but what does he bring? He’s big, and fat http://bit.ly/avEyXl. Most notably, he’s terrible.
Posey potentially putting in time at PF, Gray as our primary backup C, Craig Brackins vs. Songaila a highlight minutes battle to look forward to. Dark times are these for our team…
by Grand Tanyon Sturtze on Jul 11, 2010 10:35 PM CDT reply actions
Not true
Well, not necessarily true.
He has great rebounding numbers, pure and simple. Rebounding is a stat/ability that translates very well from small minutes to big minutes. He has good technique when he rebounds, and it’s something the Hornets really need. Moore and Anthony are hilariously bad at rebounding compared to Gray. Ratliff is 10 thousand million years old. Did you watch Gray with us last season? He was a decent defender too. I really do think you’re overreacting.
Agree
He’s a decent signing. He’s still considered to be one fot he 7 footers with potential. He’s a high energy player.
Frankly, I was a bit puzzled with his usage after we acquired him. we needed rebounding and defense last season, but we barely played him after we got him. that really made me wonder what was the issue.
However, I do recall one game where he put the lock on Dwight Howard helping us to win that game with Orlando. Anyone who can do that, has soem potential, no doubt.
i hope i am overreacting
and just to put it out there, i’m not out headhunting gray or trying to kill the vibe in here, I just watched him plenty in Chicago and he was TERRIBLE. Literally Michael Sweetney’s twin. I posted below so I won’t beat a dead horse, my thoughts are there, but that’s my opinion & reasoning as of right now. i’m not a statistician so if you or someone who disagrees can stretch Gray’s rebounding/defensive stats. out to respectable, realistic projections over stretches of more minutes, i’d gladly like to see how and why i’m wrong.
by Grand Tanyon Sturtze on Jul 12, 2010 2:11 AM CDT up reply actions
I think you're bitterly over-reacting.
Like ATH said this team needs rebounding and Gray is just that. If he slims down just a little bit he can maybe run the floor better.
No one here is saying he’s a great backup, but for the minimum it’s decent value.
Australian Atlanta Falcons Fan EST 2003
Falcons are my life,
Falcons are my soul,
I watch them through all the strife,
Until they get that Superbowl.
I don't support Gray rights
He’s so unathletic, that his size really doesn’t matter because he runs, picks-&-rolls, makes cuts, & pivots like a Ford Excursion powered by the Flintstones. Basically, it doesn’t matter how tall you are if you’re inordinately unathletic. To back that point up, he’s fat, has lost weight (about 20 lbs.) in the past but then almost immediately gained it back (about 15 lbs.). It just seems credulous that he could lose weight with some permanency now, learn to become a more athletic player, and ultimately pull it all together during this one offseason.
I’d like to clarify my point about the help he could offer by ‘rebounding’. I’ll address it in two categories:
1) He could help us rebound against teams as marginally tall/realistically speaking, small, as us.
2) He could help us rebound better against teams with true bigs across the spectrum from the likes of Howard, Bogut, Bynum, Jefferson, & the Gasols to Kaman, Lopez, Biedrins, Haywood, & Nene.
I think if i had to choose which seemed more likely to occur, i’d say #1 because Gray’s so unathletic, & there’s no indication in the past, present, or even murmurs that that’s suddenly going to change in an epiphany. But even if he could help re #1), i think it’s negligible at best. His best rebounding per game #‘s are…. 3.9. Which was fearsome glass-crasher Peja’s avg. rebounding # last year.
I’m not a statistician so if you can develop that point & show me how i’m wrong i’m definitely listening, but it seems to me he plainly sucks and won’t markedly improve our rebounding against equally small teams by an amount significant to justify signing him considering when he takes the floor we’re also taking his across the board offensive deficiencies. By that I mean he has not developed a jumper or diversified his offensive tools at all, & if he hasn’t after 3 years in the league and has had plenty of practice & down-time to render his game more versatile, i don’t know what to rely on other than pure faith that he’s going to compensate what i think are his sub-par rebounding #’s against players of average height as well as players of equal height with even scant offensive production.
With regards to #2, i’m literally bracing for laughter when he tries to face up with other bigs offensively and defensively. I watched him a-plenty when he played in Chicago, and he positions around the glass like he has no idea what is going on, and despite his weight gets pushed around by the upper 50% of taller players like he’s made out of paper mache.
To me, he is most like his former Bulls team-mate Michael Sweetney, with lighter skin, relatively same height (2’ diff), & the same deficiencies: Height that could enable him to rebound is basically mooted by a horrible lack of athleticism, weight problems, no offense to speak of.
by Grand Tanyon Sturtze on Jul 12, 2010 2:06 AM CDT up reply actions
There's nothing subpar about his rebounding, 3.9 rebounds is 10.9 minutes is exceptional
That comes out to 12.4 rebounds per 36 minutes… which is, again, exceptional. Yes, Peja averaged 3.7 rebounds per game…. and 4.2 per 36 minutes. See the difference?
Gray is a very good rebounder, period. And when it comes to backup centers, I think that’s one of the things you really want to focus on. As for defense, I never watched him in chicago… but I thought he did quite well in that regard for the Hornets last year. I didnt notice him getting pushed around at all… quite the contrary I thought he was by far our toughest post player. He played Dwight Howard much better than Emeka did, for instance.
Offensively? Well yes he is obviously quite limited. However, when he did put the ball in the basket for the Hornets last year… he did it quite efficiently. Regardless, I don’t think offense is a huge concern for the backup center slot.
If he can do what he did for the Hornets last year (great rebounding, limited but efficient offensive production, solid defense againt other bigs), which culminated in a surprising PER of 18.4… then he might actually be a bit of a bargain.
You're completely wrong, i think
Projecting those numbers across an entire game & saying that =‘s PER assumes he’s athletic enough to maintain 3.9 rebounds per 10.9 minutes over multiple periods of 10 minutes.
Aptly, as Hornets 247 in part put it (http://bit.ly/d6re2F, http://bit.ly/dzOwpg):
"Aaron Gray’s rookie season was his best at scoring the ball, and he’s declined sharply in his second and third years. (a la Hilton) Sure, he doesn’t fit into the Bulls current guard-oriented offense, but he also has put on more weight on an already "big-boned" frame. In fact, it’s possible that if he sets a pick for Darren Collison, the other team will lose sight of Collison entirely, despite Gray standing sideways in front of him. Though . . . think of the change of direction possibilities! Anyways, he’s slow and not in the best physical shape around."
…
"The defensive numbers for Aaron Gray over the last two years are abysmal. Due to Gray’s slow feet and propensity to foul, centers averaged a PER of 20 against him, and he most likely was not going up against the cream of the crop while posting those numbers. The Hornets need help defensively as much as they need help on the boards, and he’s not going to do anything to help them out there."
by Grand Tanyon Sturtze on Jul 14, 2010 12:16 AM CDT up reply actions
i was there
i was there.
i spent over a thousand dollars watching the bulls live.
they screwed uptrading gray.
he played grat WHEN given the opportunity. i know the facts. he was outplaying noah until the miller aqusition and then he was benched in favot or the noah/miller combo.
And in fact, noah was playing horrible as well, including having emotional blow ups with the staff.
gray broke his foot in preseason and was never allowed back in.
if i am not mistaken, many teams were working on getting him to sign. i am glad he stuck with the Hornets since they rescued him from the bench in chi town.
gray will prove he is a great center,,,IF allowed to play himself into the team chemistry.
I was there.
I know the facts.
by ppellico on Jul 18, 2010 8:37 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
To Jeff Bower
Sign Sean Williams!!! (irrelevant that he’s playing on the Bucks triple-A team, we can still acquire him per that status I think?/.) Sign him Bower, pleeease give us some hope for this season/excitement!
by Grand Tanyon Sturtze on Jul 11, 2010 10:36 PM CDT reply actions
Matt Barnes
He overhandles the ball, but other than that flaw, he’s a very versatile and underrated swingman, who can shoot, pass, crash the boards and play solid D.
He’s be a good addition for $3-4 mil.
I still like Brewer.
if we sign someone like him we can effectivly kick Julian Wright off the team.
Brewer could also match up against any tall 2-guards and can guard the likes of Kobe etc.
Australian Atlanta Falcons Fan EST 2003
Falcons are my life,
Falcons are my soul,
I watch them through all the strife,
Until they get that Superbowl.
agreed on Brewer. sionce we never really hear anything from our FO I really hope that he is the main target in free agent signing. as was mentioned before, the froncourt is probably set. That means there is one more slot for a wing player. Since the hornets started a youth movement and like players that can play two positions, Brewer is the perfect guy. Memphis has reportedly committed to Tony Allen. I guess this means they’ll let Ronnie go.
Get him Bower!!
by berlinhornets on Jul 12, 2010 3:46 AM CDT up reply actions
BAH
Dallas looking to sign Mahinmi. Many of the players on our original checklists are continuing to dwindle in favor of other teams. :(
3 team trade
Phoenix Out: Barbosa, Jones
Phoenix In: Turkoglu
Toronto Out: Turkoglu, Calderon, Evans
Toronto In: Diaw, Chandler, Barbosa
Charlotte Out: Diaw, Chandler
Charlotte In: Calderon, Evans, Jones
CHA has now traded away last years starting front court and now TOR has a glut of bigs…
Horrible For Phoenix
Getting Childress is great for them but getting Turkoglu is awful. Early indications are that they want him to play the 4 and his best assets are his playmaking which are really only useful when you have a team with a less than adequate point guard, which Phoenix obviously doesn’t have. Plus with his contract, I don’t see how the move makes much sense for Phoenix.
If you’re going to give that money to Turkoglu, Hakim Warrick, Channing Frye, etc. then why not just pay Stoudemire the max?
"You play to win the game."
by MrWayneKeller on Jul 12, 2010 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions
I've heard in the deep grapeveins
that PHX’s medical staff (regarded as the best in the NBA) didn’t sign off on Amare for the max amount + years. However, it definitely doesn’t explain why PHX didn’t attempt to re-sign quality instead of quantity say like D. Lee.
Yeah Turk at the 4 is a joke for defensive and rebounding (although Amare wasn’t all that good). Offensively I agree that he’s sort of the ball stopper. Too many times in watching Orlando, he got used to having the ball swing to him, take his time then decide to dribble or shoot.
If you go back and look at the game vs. the Magic
you will see that Aaron Gray is worth the price. He shut down Dwight Howard in the 2nd half. He also made some clutch shots. Okafor was basically left on the bench b/c Gray was playing so well. Unfortunately, he didn’t show that on a consistent basis. I do like that he’s staying though, because he can match up with those bigs
Peyton, I can eat Oreos faster than you!!!!

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