Rebuking Some Trade Criticisms
by Rohan on Aug 14, 2010 2:00 AM CDT
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PrintThe backlash against the Hornets' latest trade has (expectedly) begun to flow in. I'm not too surprised, given that my own initial reaction to the deal was lukewarm at best. But many of the criticisms of the deal are a little off the mark. I'll take Kelly Dwyer's latest Yahoo! Sports story as a representative piece, since it covers most of the negativity quite thoroughly.
Let us all be jumping now.
I don't mean this to be FJMish (ie, mockery), but it's laid out FJMly to best critique KD's points.
Ariza just isn't as nearly as good as teams keep making him out to be. There's a reason Houston was ready to dump the guy with only the suddenly-looking-much-older Shane Battier(notes) in reserve at small forward along with Chase Budinger(notes), only picking up a shooting guard that will have to find spot minutes behind Kevin Martin(notes).
The reason Houston decided to dump the guy is pretty well-known. In Los Angeles, Ariza was a role-playing small forward who made for a great fit, given all the open looks he had created for him. His playoff three point shooting was highly flukey, but the rest of his game was not. He used his athleticism to get to open spaces on the floor and score. A 121 ORtg in 2007 with L.A. (24) games and a 112 ORtg over a full season in 2008 reflect this.
When, during summer 2008, Ariza hit the open market, many surmised that Ariza might be given too much money for his services. The midlevel exception that he received, though, was not too much of an overestimation his value- used properly, a terrific asset to any offense, and a very capable defender. What did come as a surprise is the role Houston decided to employ him in. In L.A., Ariza very rarely created his own shot. He was never the greatest dribbler or shooter off the dribble.
For whatever reason (and it's even more surprising, given that this was the much vaunted D. Morey), Houston decided that he would be great at these things. His usage rate shot up from 16.7% in Los Angeles to 21.2% in Houston. In L.A., 55.5% of his shots were assisted. In Houston, that figure dwindled to 48.8%. Most stunningly, Ariza was assisted on 54.5% of shots within 10 feet in L.A. In Houston, that number dropped to 16.7%. From 16-23 feet, Ariza was assisted on 59% of all shots. In Houston? Try 27.7%. The Rockets inexplicably tried to make him into a go-to scoring option. Basically everyone that knew anything about Trevor Ariza knew this wasn't going to work. And it didn't. The "reason Houston was ready to dump the guy" isn't because Ariza was bad. It's because they made a terrible initial evaluation of the player, and Ariza didn't fit their offense one iota.
There's a reason Mitch Kupchak told Ariza to stick it, following his agent's laughable attempt at playing hardball with the Lakers last summer.
I find it pretty questionable to use rejection by Mitch Kupchak as an argument against Ariza, especially when Kupchak's subsequent pick up (R. Artest) proved to be a considerably worse signing than Ariza by various evaluations, and one I'm relatively certain K. Dwyer even bashed at some point.
He's a great defender and purely a spot-up shooter that has shot 32 percent from long range over his career, 33 percent last year, 32 percent the year before that, and (wait for it) 47. 6 percent from behind the three-point during the 2009 playoffs; the lasting image before his free agent turn.
Yes, it's true Ariza is a vastly overrated shooter. The Hornets aren't going to use him in that role; the fact that they traded for a near ~40% career three point shooter a few hours after trading for Ariza should indicate.. something.
Ariza is a fantastic athlete that can finish on the break, but he can't dribble, can't set up a good shot from inside the arc, and didn't really seem to understand this last season.
I would (a) contend that this wasn't a case of Ariza "understanding" or failing to "understand" anything. It was a function of Houston stuffing a dodecahedronal peg into a square hole. And (b), Ariza won't need to "dribble" or "set up good shots" in New Orleans because in the team's employ happens to be the league's preeminent performer in both those disciplines.
***
Again, I'm still disappointed that New Orleans lost Collison. But as we've said here many times, it's questionable that the team was ever going to get "fair value" back. Dell Demps made the decision to move him this summer, despite that fact (and that's a decision that maybe more intelligently critiqued). The above condemnations of Trevor Ariza, though, are pretty absurd.
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Journalists
They suck. Media guys have been awful all summer. Throughout this whole offseason, everyone’s forgotten the concept of a bigger plan or thinking outside the mold of “OMG this guy averages 20 points a game let’s sign him” and they’ve now downplayed an actual system and an actual plan by a legitimate small market trying to contend in an unfair system. Media guys go for the sensational, they rarely go for the correct.
I’m just proud that one journalist this summer did an article about the Hornets that didn’t deal with Chris Paul leaving. That must have been very hard, as nobody else has been able to do it since July.
"You play to win the game."
Kelly Dwyer
loves attention. Every once in awhile I’ll like one of his articles, but most of them are so obviously slanted one way as to garner a ton of scrutiny. It ensures he keeps his job. Meh journalism = waste of people’s time.
Yeah, my favorite part also is it was all of Ariza’s fault because he simply fails to understand his limitations. At the very worst, Trevor should be accused of trying to fill the vacuum on offense as they didn’t have a go to guy until they traded for Martin. Yao was hurt and Brooks was still coming into his own. Battier prefers to just let the shot clock expire so he can go back to playing D while Scola is a below average athlete with an average game with immense heart.
Check out what KD had to say about Ariza a year ago – sure sounds like he was a PERFECT role player:
Prove me wrong, Ron. Play off the ball. Don’t try to meet it, every play. Set screens. Cut. Move. Don’t ask for the ball, constantly breaking plays like you did in Sacramento (and, to a lesser extent, Houston). Earn that championship.
I’m not going to beg of the same for Ariza. Even though he’s young, and will improve in all areas, he is what he is. Players just don’t become off-the-dribble shot creators or post-up guys this late into a career. Doesn’t matter when he entered the league, those spots aren’t turning into stripes.
And if you think I’m overanalyzing, I think that overanalyzing got us into this mess. The Lakers didn’t need a Ron Artest. They really needed point guard help, especially defensively. Beyond that, they needed a spot-up shooter and defender. They had one in Ariza. And though they definitely found the work that Ariza’s agent did unsettling, sometimes you have to be big about it and go with what works. We know Ariza works in Los Angeles.
And we know Artest worked in Houston. Worked enough to take the champs to seven games.
So Kelly, why are you insisting that New Orleans will be getting Houston Ariza but not LA Ariza?
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You know, it's strange
I like Kelly Dwyer a lot. I think he’s easily in my top 5 favorite NBA writers. This article was just kind of strange… there IS an argument against Ariza, and it’s that a player of his skills doesn’t deserve the full midlevel (of course, there’s also an argument to be made that he does). But instead of arguing that, KD just holds his Houston struggles against him.
KD did say
that a CP3, Thorton, Ariza perimeter attack is something to look forward to. And Ariza’s Houston struggles can’t all be blamed on Houston. Yeah, they tried to get him to become more than he was, but it’s not like Adelman told Ariza to hoist 5 3’s a game and shoot an outrageous amount of long 2’s.
by B- on Aug 14, 2010 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Not to mention Ariza's...
so called ‘troubled relationship’ with Aaron Brooks. Yahoo’s Marc Spears mentioned something about the chemistry between those two when the deal was first reported. He tweeted….
@jermaine611 rockets have swingman logjam, he and brooks had bad chemistry
1:46 PM Aug 11th via Twitter for BlackBerry® in reply to jermaine611
And now the Boston Globe is saying something about their ‘troubled relationship’.
Ariza didn’t seem to have a chemistry problem in L.A. It’s all about fit and chemistry. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. We don’t know what Adelman told Ariza to do. No he probably didn’t tell him to go out there and hoist up 3’s but perhaps Brooks didn’t get him in a position to take better shots. It’s a point guards job to do that. Ariza doesn’t appear to be a chucker. Houston may not be ALL to blame but they could have had a part in it.
And apparently...
being with Houston Gerald Madkins was well aware of Ariza’s struggles so he went out and traded for him. Probably because he thought he’d fit better in NOLA. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see how it pans out.
Yeah
I always assumed that Ariza’s shot-jacking last year was not a function of his ego or Ariza misunderstanding his role… in fact it seemed he perfectly understood his role, it was just a role that didn’t fit him. Ariza being shot-happy was never a problem in LA, not even remotely. He only took on that role in Houston because Houston had limited offensive options at the time. Its kind of funny because prior to last season, everyone predicted as much. “Houston needs another scorer, Ariza will be asked to be that scorer – his efficiency will probably drop as a result.” We heard that a lot… and it happened to a tee. So why are some folks now acting like Ariza is J.R. Smith or something with no conception of shot selection? That’s absurd.
I actually do like Dwyer, and I understand some of his reservations… but I don’t know that Collison could have gotten the Hornets more than this. Maybe it would have been prudent to wait until the trade deadline and see if better offers were available, but that also runs the risk of only worse offers being available. They have no real track record yet, but I’m putting my faith in Demps, Monty & co and trusting that they are doing the best they can for the team.
Nice work
Rohan (as always).
I’ve got to say I appreciate what you do here.
Like most Hornets fans, I’m pretty tired of all the Hornets bashing going on. I wish we could have finagled a little more from Indy (like Troy Murphy, since they were willing to give him up), but I like the move in that it upgrades the SF position and got rid of players that weren’t going to play/help the team win. Easier salary burden for the Hornets plus at least the same contribution ALONE sounds like a good trade to me. (Ariza was lousy in Houston for whatever reason but he is definitely NOT a bad basketball player) These basketball watchers seem a bit short-sighted. I personally think Indy lost in this as they traded Murphy (very productive) for a PG who’s not (yet anyway) as productive when they probably could have gotten a comparable (to Collison) PG without having to swap Murphy for Posey (I guess there’s Collison’s rookie scale contract but they took on Posey’s so…).
I guess we’ll see who’s right once the season starts and this all starts to shake out…
Moving on though, I’m wondering, now that Demps (and Williams) have made a move, what folks think the overall plan for the team going forward is looking like.
I mean aside from, Step 1: Get Better Players.
Word.
Foster would have been a nice way to fill out the front court rotation and Murphy, I think, could work well paired with Okafor or West. If they picked up both, they could move West for an all-star at another position (all three are getting long in the tooth though I guess so there’s that … ).
But Murphy is a free agent next year though, so there’s hope. (heh)
Sportswriters....
…. I’ve already said what use I have for them. Shake off the haters. I am EXTREMELY positive about this upcoming season. Trading JuJu for a legit 3pt threat that will contribute IMO was the master stroke. I like Ariza too …. He certainly will give us more than Posey did. Losing DC was going to happen at some point , let’s wait and see how well Ariza works out before rushing to judgement. After all if Kelly Dwyer is really qualified as as GM , then????
by 3ptace on Aug 14, 2010 10:05 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Chemistry
Teams do well when the mix of talent is right, and Trevor Ariza seems to be a good complement to the other players on the roster as it is now constituted. He’s not much of a long range threat, but his constant motion, slashing style is unique on the Hornets and should fit in nicely with Paul, West, and the rest.
KD's argument
is not so much one against Ariza as a player, but what NO had to give up to get him. I think that if the Hornets had picked him up for another player, he would’ve been ok for it. The real reason that KD didn’t like this trade was because they gave up Collison for it, who was looking to be like an amazing point guard. I understand that NO might never get fair trade value for Collison, but would you trade Collison for Ariza? KD’s argument is no, they should not make that trade.
Houston thought that they could get Ariza to expand his role to the second or third option on the team. What Houston was that Ariza’s ceiling was not as high as they thought it was, so they traded him. I think that KD loves Ariza as a role-player, but he feels that for Collison, they should’ve been able to get a nice second or third option (or at least two or three good players for depth). Remember, if Ariza’s your fifth option on your team (like in LA), you’re in pretty good shape – if he’s your third? then maybe not so great.
Did anyone see the screencap of the trade simulator at the end though? That was hilarious.
On the potential factor
I probably agree with you and KD – I don’t like Collison for Ariza str8 up. However, one has to evaluate the situation as a whole – who else was sort of available, immediate help required at SF, decent price and doesn’t screw up future FA signings, attempt to repair/appease CP3 relations, Hornets longstanding problem of no good wing defenders. I could go on and on but you get my drift – this was a GOOD trade FOR New Orleans.
Really this boils down to market vs. intrinsic value. You and KD see this from the market perspective where str8 it does point more favorably towards the Collison side. On the other hand, many Hornets fans understand the intrinsic value – can’t prioritize Collison’s potential over the bettering of the team (which includes urgent need to win now to appease the CP3 situation).
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Good post RedHopeful...
it’s not very often that people look at the whole picture. Especially fans outside of the impacted teams fan bases.
I agree that you guys could have done better than Ariza
Trading Collison for Ariza is lopsided, Collison has potential to be an all-star point guard someday, whereas Ariza will probably never make the all star team and top out at being a really good role player. There were so many PG-deprived teams whom you could have gotten more from, yet you guys settled for Ariza. If nothing else you probably could have milked Kahn’s PG fetish for something way better than Ariza.
Awesome
another Fail post. So let’s hear another viable alternative. You mention Kahn (probably jokingly) but let’s consider it for a second. Which player do they have on their roster that would interest the Hornets that would make an immediately very useful impact? I think I hear the crickets chirping….
Why are people so hung up on market value?!? UGH!
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By reading these comments...
I don’t even need to read the actual article. Screw Kelly Dwyer. There.
Now that I’ve gotten that out of the way, I think Ariza will be a good addition.
The year....
Ariza won a championship with the Lakers he had been working on his shooting with Craig Hodges. I remember watching him and thought to myself, when did Ariza start knocking down 3’s like that? Come to find out he had been working with Hodges. I think he’ll be a good addition to this team. Sure, I would’ve liked to had kept Collison around at least for another year but I guess we did what we had to do. And we don’t know what else other teams were willing to give up. I do know one thing, while we’ve been needing a capable backup for CP3 for quite a while, we’ve also been needing much better from that SF position as well. Now all we need is another guard and perhaps another lengthy big and we should be good to go into the season.
One more thing...
CP3 will make things a lot easier for Mr. Ariza. He most likely won’t have to do as much as he had to in Houston. This is another running mate for CP3. We’ve been needing youth and athleticism at that 3 spot for a while now. Julian was supposed to be it but we saw what happened there.
When Ariza was with the Lakers
he was a very versatile defender. Phil Jackson would often sick him on Tony Parker, and he gave Tony fits.
"I've hacked into your brain. You're throwing a party and no one's showing up."
Quincy Pondexter says....
to Hornets fans “Get your popcorn ready!” LOL!
Talkin' championship
Me likey
Australian Atlanta Falcons Fan EST 2003
Falcons are my life,
Falcons are my soul,
I watch them through all the strife,
Until they get that Superbowl.
Trever is what he is
a very athletic small forward. Has good size for the small forward position and a 7-2 wingspan. Possesses great quickness and moves laterally as well as some point guards. Shows explosive leaping ability. Uses his athleticism to be effective. Gets out in transition and is a capable finisher. Doesn’t have much of a jump shot. Can be effective as a slasher. Can bring a lot to the table as a defender and rebounder due to his athleticism.
You have a very athletic 6’8" small forward witha 7’2" wingspan. That alone makes him an NBA player. He is not a 3-point guy, but he will make New Orleans a better team, plus you got rid of Posey.
Good job.
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
I'll tell ya about the Magic It'll free your soul but it's like trying to tell a stranger 'bout rock n roll
"This dude is huge....I've got to go home and eat like five chickens and put a lot of weight on. It's going to take a couple months, but seriously." - Marcin Gortat about Shaq.
by NC Magic Fan on Aug 16, 2010 4:41 PM CDT reply actions
Cp3 trade chances are better than ever!
Everyone is acting like because the Hornets traded Darren Collison it ends any chance of them trading CP3. Well, I disagree… It means one of two things;
Scenario one— CP3 will wait out two crappy seasons (sorry Ariza makes them a 7th/8th seed at best) and go the FA route like Lebron, likely joining the Magic or Knicks in 2012
Scenario two- -the Magic are the Hornets preferred trading partner and have managed to solve a big problem in a Magic/Hornets trade; What to do with Jameer Nelson? Before Collison was moved, a third team was required to take Jameer, no longer is that a problem. Before you laugh at the idea of them wanting Jameer, or coveting Jameer, remember the Hornets are a team that is trying to get under the cap and out of debt so the team can be sold. Jameer is young, a former all star (he got hurt and couldn’t play so most forget) and has averaged about 14 ppg, has shot almost 50% from the field and over 40% from 3pt line and avg 5.5 assists over the past 2 seasons. Not exactly chopped liver when you consider he averages 6mil/year (he would score more in another system). That is good return on your investment and can be justified by ownership as good return for a disgruntled super star.
Let’s try a few combinations of trade possibilities and you will see that it is much easier to make a trade with them now that Collinson is gone than before. Try yourself, Trade Machine.
Read entire blog @ http://bradasssports.blogspot.com/2010/08/chris-paul-trade-looking-better-than.html
Tell us what you think!
Lord
don’t even know where to begin with this one. :(
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copy paste
I copy and pasted what I wrote. Just was curious what Hornets fans think….especially about the fact Paul has proven himself since injury…its further in the blog…sorry i wont copy paste again..just wanted some Hornets fans take.
by Brad Barnard on Aug 17, 2010 7:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Honestly
It makes no sense that the Hornets would move Darren Collison just to bring in Jameer Nelson. At all. We’ll leave it at that.
"You play to win the game."
by MrWayneKeller on Aug 17, 2010 8:10 PM CDT up reply actions
You sure
Once you figure out you are trying to save money to dump the team…then maybe you will get it.
by Brad Barnard on Aug 17, 2010 9:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't Talk To Me About Getting It
You’re the one arguing that trading your best and most marketable asset will help you sell your franchise at the price you’re asking for. So maybe you’ll get it.
"You play to win the game."
by MrWayneKeller on Aug 17, 2010 11:38 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
The problem is your entire theory
Shinn doesn’t need to jettison the team ASAP. He simply wants to move on with his life after a scare with cancer. He wants to dedicate his time and resources towards early detection.
Also, Chouest or any new likely incoming owner will want for an asset like CP3 to stay. Plenty of studies have shown that players like him (and Lebron James) make an organization infinitely more valuable than what a franchise pays a player of their ilk in salary.
Therefore, your whole hypothesis is wrong and doesn’t need to be evaluated any further concerning possible (lousy) trade scenarios.
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Stupid Magic fan
p.s. Hornets have cooler pinstripes than you! :P
by OnPointLikeCP3 on Aug 17, 2010 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions
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