The Hornets: Diagnosed Manic Depressive

by MrWayneKeller on Jan 6, 2011 2:47 PM CST in "Analysis"

Have you ever encountered an individual, or in this case a group of individuals, and find yourself unable to comprehend what's truly going on with that particular person or peoples? One minute you're sitting back, enjoying a beverage of choice and talking about the good times when that person suddenly begins to cry. Their crying then develops into anger, and you're wondering whether you should approach the person in humor, as you did moments earlier, or allow them to let their emotions out. You sit back and realize that this individual doesn't have a full grasp on their emotions and you wonder what could be triggering that. Scientists describe this frequent change in personalities to be a bi polar disorder. However, I'm not referencing the person with the wide range of emotions in this post. I'm finally figuring out what triggers that person's wide range of emotions. That person who is laughing, crying and then angry isn't manic depressive. It's me. It's me watching my manic depressive New Orleans Hornets.

The most reliable source on the internet, Wikipedia, describes manic depression as a psychiatric diagnosis that describes a category of mood disorders defined by the presence of one or more episodes of abnormally elevated energy levels, cognition and mood with or without one or more depressive episodes. That, in a nutshell, describes the kind of season that the Hornets are having. I haven't been this frustrated with a Hornets team since... 2009. So I guess it hasn't been that long. But I think I speak for everyone else at ATH when I say that I simply don't know what kind of team we have here.

This isn't even about the 11-1 start. Most of us figured that level of play was unsustainable over an 82 game schedule for a team with as many question marks coming into the season as New Orleans had. Most people took to blaming our offense, the coach, Chris Paul, Willie Green and the NBA's purchase of the team. All in all, the Hornets, obviously, haven't played well since that start, going 10-13 since. But even in that 10-13 span, we've seen signs of the team returning to form followed by efforts that have you wondering if the Hornets could even make the playoffs. Is it just a matter of matchups? Is it the lack of talent on the team? For instance, during that 10-13 stretch the Hornets have been on the receiving end and on the giving end of two big comebacks. Last night, the Hornets were up by 13 in the second half against the Warriors, up by ten in the fourth quarter and lost to a Warriors team that hasn't performed well for about the past month. This isn't an isolated moment either. Need I remind everyone of the Spurs game at home that saw the Hornets up by 17 at halftime only to see them lose by double digits in a game that wasn't even a tightly contested contest? Earlier in December, the Hornets were down by 23 to the Kings and came back to win that game. Never have I ever longed for just a consistent game for four quarters.

The manic depressive diagnosis is in relation to the many moods we've seen from the Hornets this season. On one hand, we walked into the season seeing a potentially terrific offensive team. We then saw at the beginning of the season how well this team could perform defensively. What's followed is a fluctuating result from both ends of the floor, albeit with the defensive production remaining the closest to form. I've tried to describe how to figure this team out. On one hand, Chris Paul and David West truly are the only consistent options the team can rely on. But, on the other hand, the supporting cast isn't LeBron James in Cleveland bad.

We've seen incredible highs this season for the Hornets; initiated by the hot start. Since that start, we saw the team play a two game stretch on the road where they lost at Minnesota but won at Boston. We've seen them dominate Utah by 30 at home but lose to Detroit on the road. We've seen the Hornets dominate Atlanta in the second half but get dominated by Golden State in the second half; both at home. So what gives? Is there any way we can truly diagnose this team? If you step back and look at it, the Hornets are the only team in the league to hold victories over Boston, San Antonio and Dallas (the three best teams in the league). In addition to that tidbit, they also have losses to Indiana, Detroit, Minnesota and Philadelphia.

To sum my entire rant without a conclusive result, I'm staring blankly at the Hornets schedule and trying to figure out how this works:

Teams the Hornets have beaten: Denver, San Antonio, Dallas, Miami, Portland, Utah, Atlanta Boston
Teams the Hornets have lost to: the Clippers, Philadelphia, Detroit, Indiana, Minnesota, Golden State

I think it's safe to say that, no matter what statistics you look at, no matter how you try to evaluate this team and no matter what explanation you give, we may go all season without figuring this team out.

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Comments

Good stuff

Just in last night’s game alone, it seemed like we went on multiple 10-0 runs and gave up just as many, completely randomly.

And I love that list of teams we’ve beaten and teams we’ve lost to. I knew it was strange, but seeing it starkly laid out like that really drives it in.

by Rohan on Jan 6, 2011 3:26 PM CST reply actions

I was trying to make that list

as we were walking out of the Arena last night. It’s getting a little beyond frustrating at this point. Every time they seem poised to put together a good string of games, they pull something like last night. Monty talked about making changes in minutes, but I don’t see where he has much room (Marcus for Willie, Gray for Smith?).

By the way, does that list make us the anti-Lakers as of right now?

by Will H. on Jan 6, 2011 3:35 PM CST reply actions

To Monty's Changes

I did some more work on this post since I’ve posted it and take a look at this.

As far as raw, unadjusted +/- goes for this season, there are only 5 players in the NBA who their team is a +5 or higher when they are ON the court and a -5 or worse when they are OFF the court.

Dirk (19.5 ON, -7.5 OFF, side note: WOW)
Pau (9.5 ON, -7 OFF)
Landry Fields (6 ON, -7 OFF)
Chris Paul (5.5 ON, -7.5 OFF)
David West (+5.5 ON, -5.5 OFF)

It’s pretty stunning how the team really seems to hinge on those two guys. Those two have a +13 and a +11 net, and nobody else on the team really factors when it comes to +/-. Ariza is a detriment, Thornton rates worse, Jarrett Jack appearly is the worst player on the team, and everyone else is just mediocre when it comes down to it.

And amazingly, that +13 and +11, it’s not 100% on the offensive end, it’s actually about 125% on the offensive end. Paul’s +13 is fully offensive. West is actually a +14 for his O and a -3 for his D.

Without those two, the offense is just terrible.

I wanted to evaluate the wins and losses some more, as well, and figure out what the main difference was. In those wins that I mentioned:

Denver game score:
Paul 18.6
West 12.5

Spurs:
Paul 21.9
West 10.5

Dallas:
Paul 18.8
West 11.6

Miami
Paul 20.2
West 9.3

Portland
Paul 17.1
West 15

Atlanta
Paul 19.9
West 13.2

Boston
Paul 22.7
West 14.5

In the games they lost that I mentioned:

Clippers

Paul 9.8
West 22.6

Philly
Paul 19.9
West 1.6

Detroit
Paul 15.5
West 23.4

Indiana
Paul 7.1
West 12.5

Minnesota
Paul 28.4
West 13.5

GSW
Paul 25.1
West 13.9

For the most part, the Hornets winning strategy seems to be consistant. Paul has a good game, not a great game. 10 is average on game scores, 20 is good, 30 is great. And West has a decent game.

When the Hornets lose, either West is the one having the good game, while Paul is having the decent game, West doesn’t show up, or Paul is doing too much. Which, to me, indicates that the Hornets win when Paul is good, West is decent, and probably the most key, someone else bothers to step up (a look at the box scores of the big wins mentioned shows someone from the Hornets muck stepped up in those games). When West has to lead, or when Paul lacks help, the Hornets lose. Seems to me the Hornets need a 3rd wheel badly.

"You play to win the game."

by MrWayneKeller on Jan 6, 2011 3:43 PM CST reply actions

it's more

than just changing player minutes.
I think, and what do I know, is that it’s more player combinations.
Really, I think this is a problem with the young coach, and perhaps why I feel he is being let down by his staff.
I feel that THESE coaches are supposed to be his game eyes and ears.
They are supposed to bring him the little details going on and give him options…INCLUDING player options.
I am disgusted everythime I hear the terms first unit or second unit.
There is ONLY the team.
You might start, but you might also get ready to be replaced as soon as the opportunity calls for it.
I like Smith.
I simply feel the game is changing from Paul taem ballpassing to Individual street ball.
This because they are not a team, but first or second unit mentality.

by ppellico on Jan 6, 2011 4:00 PM CST reply actions

Great Article WayneKeller

This is exactly what I as many Hornet fans feel. We have no way of putting our finger on anything when it comes to this team we just can’t say with any certainty, “Oh that’s a win.” The team just cannot perform at the consistent level needed of a playoff team. Sure we’ve beaten some pretty impressive teams, but we’ve also lost to some absolute crud teams.

The offense, I feel, is to blame. Those 10-0 runs that Golden State (and other teams) went on could easily of been combated by a couple of baskets, just to ease the run. So instead of a 10-0 run, we have a 10-4 run. It’s not great, but it helps ease the run.

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by Grayson on Jan 6, 2011 7:17 PM CST reply actions

The One Thing That's Tough

Is all of these runs happen when Chris Paul and/or David West go to the bench. Monty can’t possibly play these guys all 48 minutes. Even when we get to the postseason and rotations shorten, they still shouldn’t go over 40 minutes. And the offense is an issue and, as ppelico would say, even if Monty’s got questionable rotations or play calling, the guys on the court need to produce and if they can’t, then we just have to accept that this is the team. Because the team has to be able to let Paul and West catch their breath or else they’re going to lose everything down the stretch ala 2009.

"You play to win the game."

by MrWayneKeller on Jan 7, 2011 12:30 AM CST up reply actions

good point

by MZURK on Jan 7, 2011 12:44 AM CST up reply actions

I'm glad I don't play

team sports.
You have such limited chances
That’s why I love individual sports.
I was a state wrestling finalist.
Never worried about the coach’s decisions or other players.
If I got beat, it was me that lost…it wasn’t a coach’s decision on who I played with or such.
Same thing with my current love, tennis. If I lose…I did it all by myself!.
Nobody else had any input or effected my abilities.
This team crap must suck.
You try to do your best but so damned much is dependant upon decisons and play of others.

I really wish I could advise as to what I think is wrong with the team.
Maybe nothing.
Maybe it’s just time. New guys with new coaches and nobody really has a solid feel for each other.
Opportunities were lost due to a coach trying to input his ideas and players…then even more new players. Now it’s a third into the season and the pressure begins to build around the collar.
Time now begins to become your enemy. The fans change opinions faster than they type.
I am guilty of this myself. After I bitch I know inside I am very likely full of shit.

I say give them time now.
Practice times are harder to find once the season goes, but I think they are going to find each other.
But they need to know they are staying and can develop a game feel for each other. They need to feel something for each other.
Sure they are pros, but hell…they are kids as well.

I think they all need to go out and do an all nighter with the coach and become comfortable.
I’m willing to send them a case of my favorite single malt if they would all just sit down and drink it around a camp fire!

by ppellico on Jan 6, 2011 8:26 PM CST reply actions

good article

An enjoyable read. Thanks MWK.

One little minor point I would quibble with is: " On one hand, we walked into the season seeing a potentially terrific offensive team."

My expectations at best were that we’d be simply an adequate offenisve team, but it seems we haven’t yet been able to live up to such expectations. However, I never thought that with additions of Ariza, Green, Bellinelli, etc. we’d improve to fantastic.

Anyway, very good points overall. Cheers.

by MZURK on Jan 7, 2011 12:46 AM CST reply actions

Yeah

Maybe terrific was a stretch but I remember many publications, some Rohan actually posted on here, saying that the team was potentially a potent offensive team.

"You play to win the game."

by MrWayneKeller on Jan 7, 2011 12:56 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah it definitely was

You had the elite play of CP, the borderline AS play of DX, the high FG% of Oak, and the theoretically good shooting to space the floor. A lot of it hinged on Ariza to return to his GSW play and Marcus Thornton and Aaron Gray to take Willie Green’s and D.J. Mbenga’s minutes, but I think they were entirely reasonable expectations. Anybody that predicted Ariza to be this bad is either lying or, yeah, probably lying.

There’s a reason the majority of statistically oriented season projections had us playing elite offense.

by Rohan on Jan 7, 2011 1:09 PM CST up reply actions

i

I never felt that. From the beginning I felt that Ariza is an average offenisve player at the very best case scenario. Maybe 12ppg on low 40%s is what I expected. I could dig up my posts from earlier.

I thought MT may average around 10 points per game though on mid 40%s. But that’s it.

I’ve also felt that DWest is a bit of double edged blade. A featured big man who frequently takes his game to the permieter, not necessarily the typical ingredient of a blow out offense. Obviously, DWest has surpassed my expectations with his efficine play.

But because of the above factors, I didn’t feel that Hornets were primed for an offenisve explosion. Maybe decent play, but not dominance.

by MZURK on Jan 8, 2011 12:42 AM CST up reply actions

I agree, great article. It is great to see it all in numbers and put into perspective. I used to stay up until 5 a.m. to watch the Hornets games. Now, I always check the result first because you never know when the ymight win and what is even more frustrating is that when they lose the game they do it because of lackluster effort and that gets me down for the rest of the day.
Last year was slightly different. the team was run by young guns and it was exciting to watch (just take this years Clippers team). I just hope the team gets this consistency thing fixed.

by berlinhornets on Jan 7, 2011 5:24 AM CST reply actions

Yeah

That’s one thing about being a fan. 2009 was easily the most frustrated season I’ve ever been apart of as a fan. And they made the playoffs that year. This year’s not nearly as frustrating (because we had championship aspirations in 2009) but it’s taking that shape a little bit.

"You play to win the game."

by MrWayneKeller on Jan 7, 2011 12:57 PM CST up reply actions

Don't expect anything different

We’ve beaten the top teams in the league. We’ve had a stirring comeback against the Kings. We expected the Hornets to have grown closer together since the Green family tragedy. However, it seems none of these things have served as a springboard to where you’d expect a top team to string together an impressive stretch of play. The headscratching losses sort of prove that. If we’re not in top form on the defensive side + rebounding, we can lose on any given night. I’ll say it again, we’re one very good offensive player away from being dangerous. Have never been a fan of Melo but my goodness, he’d be a perfect fit. At this point, I’d love to just see OJ Mayo in uniform.

by RedHopeful on Jan 7, 2011 9:24 AM CST reply actions

Well

We both agree that a third scorer is needed on this team. There’s so many players in the NBA who don’t do anything but put the ball in the basket and that’s the kind of player the Hornets need on this team. Someone like an OJ Mayo would be nice, I suppose, but I’m not sure how many third wheels are to be had unless some team bites on the potential Thornton had last season. And even then, the guy coming in has to be better than Thornton. Not playing better than Thornton currently (because Thornton is struggling) but a better player than Thornton. And although Thornton couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat right now, he’s still got potential. I don’t know what happened to it, but he has it.

"You play to win the game."

by MrWayneKeller on Jan 7, 2011 12:59 PM CST up reply actions

For sure

I’m wary of any guy that comes in, in the Mayo/Thornton mold simply because we’ve seen how poorly Monty Williams has utilized the position. I don’t think Mayo is very good regardless, but that’s neither here nor there.

by Rohan on Jan 7, 2011 1:10 PM CST up reply actions

Rohan

With hindsight being what it is, and even with it not being what it is, what do you think the differences would have been for the second unit had the team kept Collison instead of trading him for Ariza? I was thinking about it today, and the team would be thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiin at SF but Collison, if nothing else, would at least have provided the team a stabilizing player on the second unit.

"You play to win the game."

by MrWayneKeller on Jan 7, 2011 1:20 PM CST up reply actions

Of Course

That’s all speculation and thinking out loud because I was way excited about the trade when it happened.

"You play to win the game."

by MrWayneKeller on Jan 7, 2011 1:20 PM CST up reply actions

Haha

With hindsight? So many factors… I mean, don’t look now, but Jarrett Jack over the past 10ish games has been just about as good as Collison has been all year in Indiana. DC appears to have taken a step back both in terms of shooting and creating. Dunno if that’s the system, dunno if it’s him, but fact is, he isn’t wildly different from JJ at this point.

I think the big issue is Ariza’s contract. I’ve mentioned before how his defense cancels his offense, but do we really want to pay 6 to 7 million a year for a guy that might very literally be bringing zero net worth to the table? If Ariza’s offense doesn’t pick up, I dunno.

by Rohan on Jan 7, 2011 1:38 PM CST up reply actions

Also, I realized I didn't answer your question at all haha

I think the 2nd unit would be more or less similar to now… maybe we don’t trade Peja, etc. Either way, it sucks now and it may have been a bit better with DC, but still bad.

by Rohan on Jan 7, 2011 1:39 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah That Seems Fair

And even at 6 million dollars, I don’t think Ariza is a bad value. We just have to find a way to keep him from shooting so often. When I envision the kind of player I wanted Julian Wright to be, I see who I want Ariza to be. And neither of them are being what I want.

"You play to win the game."

by MrWayneKeller on Jan 7, 2011 1:47 PM CST up reply actions