CP3 to Orlando?! We would NEVER... wait a second
by GeauxHornets on Dec 2, 2011 1:31 AM CST
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PrintEarlier tonight, Matt Moore of CBSSports.com threw out a bold idea - that, even after Chris Paul's apparent NYC demands, Orlando should still try to trade for him. On the surface, this idea probably seems ludicrous from both sides. Orlando would be acquiring a player who has made it known that he plans on relocating to the Big Apple when his contract expires, and the Magic don't exactly have the trade chips that a rebuilding team would covet. However, if we dig deeper, we can see that maybe this idea isn't so crazy after all.
So, to briefly paraphase Matt, the Magic would agree to this trade for two reasons which are highly correlated. They make the deal to win a championship this season, and worry about repercussions later. The ultimate goal, besides winning a championship, is that Paul and Howard have so much fun bringing a title to Orlando that they both decide to stick around and try and win some more. The latter of the two trade motives is a long shot, but what do they have to lose?
As for the Hornets - besides Orlando's first round pick that they would undoubtedly command (although it likely wouldn't be a terribly valuable one since it'd be linked to a suddenly powerful Magic squad), they possess some of the last guys you would name when trying to think of players to rebuild around. Let's list them.
Player (2011-12 salary, years remaining)
Gilbert Arenas ($19.3 million, 3 years) - Likely to be amnestied. Total waste of space, see: 2011 playoffs. No further explanation necessary.
Dwight Howard ($18.1 million, 1 year) - ...yeah right. Get real. Not now, not ever. No way.
Hedo Turkoglu ($11 million, 3 years) - Vastly overpaid, poor-defending small forward. Think Peja with better handles, a worse 3-point shot, and everything else basically the same. Now ask yourself why that player is making 8 figures every year until he's 35. No thanks.
Jameer Nelson ($8.6 million, 2 years) - Former all-star, but realistically just an above average, slightly overpaid point guard. Could be an asset for a contending team needing an upgrade at the point.
J.J. Redick ($6.75 million, 2 years) - Very good shooter, decent defender and ball-handler. Not quite worth the money he's making, but not nearly overpaid enough to be looked over by a team in the playoff hunt that needs a shooter.
Brandon Bass ($4.25 million, 2 years) - Originally drafted by the Hornets out of LSU, Bass has turned into a solid backup power forward and spot starter. He's essentially a slightly less talented Carl Landry; not as good of a scorer, but slightly better defensively (though that isn't really saying much). Bass could absolutely help a playoff team looking for a solid big man off the bench.
Chris Duhon ($3.25 million, 3 years) - Incredibly ineffective player with an awful contract. He may be a local product, but you won't find him anywhere near the Hornets.
Quentin Richardson ($2.45 million, 3 years) - Looked like a decent backup wing player... until last season, that is. He doesn't do anything terribly well, and considering he's signed through his 34th birthday, he's not an incredibly attractive option.
Ryan Anderson ($2.24 million, 1 year) - Anderson is a fantastic 3-point shooter, a decent (at best) rebounder, and a poor defender who blocks a few shots here and there. The Magic love him, so they would likely be reluctant to include him in any potential deal, but if it's for Chris Paul, I'd have to imagine that anyone is attainable outside of Howard.
Daniel Orton ($1.1 million, 1 year w/ team options for 2 more) - Orton was the Magic's late first round pick in 2010 out of Kentucky and is still a major work in progress. He's big and can rebound and block shots, but that's about all that's known about him right now. Currently, he seems like a poor man's Aaron Gray (is that even possible?), but with much more upside due to his young age of 21.
Those are the guys that the Magic are currently employing. Besides taking a gamble on Orton, none of those players are ones to really rebuild around. Which brings us back to the question - Why the hell would we trade Chris Paul to Orlando for them?
Here's why, as first explained by Moore. The thing with at least half of those players is that, while they may not be valuable to a Hornets team looking to start over, they would have much, much greater value to other teams battling for playoff position. Nelson, Redick, Bass, and Anderson are four players who could each return decent hauls individually as the trade deadline approaches. Teams looking to make a postseason push could turn to the suddenly trade-happy Hornets looking to make a deal. In addition to any draft picks the team would receive from Orlando initially, they could also possibly net a couple more by turning around and trading whoever else they receive from Orlando.
Think about something along the lines of CP3 and Trevor Ariza for Nelson, Redick, Bass, Orton, and Orlando's 2012 first round pick. The Hornets get to unload Ariza's inflated contract and horrific shot selection (his excellent defense isn't really going to be much help to a rebuilding Hornets team), and in exchange they get 3 guys who would all be attractive assets as the trade deadline approaches, a project to work with at center, and a first rounder in a deep 2012 draft class.
Is it an ideal situation for the Hornets? Of course not.
Should they pursue other trade options before settling on the Magic? Unquestionably.
But is it better than whatever garbage they would get from the Knicks? You bet.
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I like your style GeauxHornets =)
Knick fan’s want to assume that Hornets are handcuffed and bent over the table to accept scraps of Landry Fields and T. Douglass simply because they are homers and dream of a big 3.
If I were the Hornets GM I would call his bluff and say: “Chris, if you want to play in NY so bad that you would refuse to play in Los Angeles (w/ the clippers), screw over the franchise that gave you your chance in the NBA, AND give up $40 million… so be it”
by ap3604 on Dec 2, 2011 3:09 AM CST reply actions
Good article
Good article. Very good brief summaries of the Orlando players.
I would be willing to give Nelson and Reddick a chance in exchange for CP. Not a huge Nelson fan, but he is a competitor. He’s certainly a capable starter if nothing else. Reddick is underrated and he could potentially be a solution at SG for us. Our starting back court would be set for the next couple of years.
If you add Ariza to the mix, you kind of end up in one of those “swapping our team for their team” scenarios which I would prefer not doing.
The one guy I'd personally want back most is Ryan Anderson
122 points/possession last year on 20% usage, which is very impressive. A plus rebounder at 10% offensive, 18% defensive, 15% total, and his reputation was as a ferocious rebounder coming out of college. Very rarely turns the ball over. High percentage shooter, huge range. And the kicker? He’s 23.
Kevin Pelton had a very good article last year indicating that Anderson is the closest player in the league to Dirk, skill set wise. It will take a monumental leap obviously to reach Dirk level, but Anderson’s far and away Orlando’s most interesting asset.
I’ll echo the others – great read Mason
Yeah
I’ve been gaga about this guy too the last several seasons. One has to believe some part of his efficient shooting is due to the D12 factor, but should still be more than serviceable w/o such a dominant center.
One thing you didn’t mention Rohan is his work ethic. He came into last year much stronger and worked on a bunch of stuff and now I’m hearing he’s gained another 15 lbs this offseason so he can better hold his defensive positions.
Great point re: the work ethic
Love to see a guy improve in the NBA the way he has. The goatee though might be a dealbreaker
http://theblowtorch.blogspot.com/2009/12/reactions-to-ryan-andersons-goatee.html
Oh, and if you're in the mood to be depressed
A ~17 PER, 23 year old Darren Collison and an ~18 PER, 23 year old Marcus Thornton would have been the absolutely perfect trade bait to lure Dwight Howard from Orlando to New Orleans this season.
Just throwing this out there
But wouldn’t Emeka Okafor be a nice trade chip in a Howard trade? If a few first rounders were thrown in?
Why would Orlando want back a often hurt waste of space like Okafor? They will take Bynum way before they take Okafor
Hindsight
we must keep reminding ourselves that at the time we reluctantly agreed to let them go in hopes of putting better parts around CP3. Of course, I hate bringing this point up but it’s the only thing that gets me through the day.
Thanks to All
ap, I think we agree in the fact that I’d rather not trade him at all than trade him to the Knicks. It may be irrational, but I think Hornets management has to at least set an example by not giving in to their star player’s demands.
MZURK, I largely agree with you about where you stand on both Nelson and Redick, although I still think the Hornets would look to deal them as opposed to hanging on to both players. I definitely understand your concern with throwing Ariza into the trade, but at this point, if we’re solely looking to completely re-vamp the roster for the future, it’d be nice to cut Trevor loose (and his $20 million owed over the next three seasons). After the season, it would give the Hornets the option to amnesty Okafor and completely start from scratch. We’ll see how the Hornets decide to play it out.
Rohan, I agree 100%; I think Anderson is the best acquisition out of all of them. In a trade with Orlando, though, we’d be forced to make the salaries match since they’re so far over the cap, and I’m just not sure they’d agree to add Anderson into that mix/replace Bass or Orton with him. I would be incredibly stoked if they did, though.
Thanks to all for the positive feedback. It makes my writing even more enjoyable.
I don't think it'll come down to needing to setting an example
I feel both sides will be amicable enough through the entire process so that each party may benefit. Just hope it gets done before the trade deadline because an entire season of this is gonna suck big time.
Any team other than New York!
I still think the Clippers are a viable trading partner, their earlier attempt to build a Baron Davis-Elton Brand-Chris Kaman team shows they’re interested in putting together a great team, Neil Olshey has been really active, they have the parts, and they’re the best parts we could ask for in return for a top-5
by Grand Tanyon Sturtze on Dec 2, 2011 11:58 AM CST reply actions
Agreed, but...
it still remains to be seen how much the Clippers would give up now that Paul has made (correction, his agent has made) his desire to play in New York pretty clear. They’re definitely the most ideal trade partner, but only if they’re willing to risk CP3 walking after the season.
by GeauxHornets on Dec 2, 2011 12:33 PM CST up reply actions
I totally agree
A lot turns on how “negotiable” Dell Demps and Neil Olshey can be together
by Grand Tanyon Sturtze on Dec 2, 2011 1:47 PM CST up reply actions
It is rather sad
Still, although Sterling’s a totally racist curmudgeon of an owner, Dolan’s an absolute nut himself. Probably best to just shut our eyes to who we’re shaking hands with if/when a deal is made.
by Grand Tanyon Sturtze on Dec 2, 2011 9:12 PM CST up reply actions
How about Houston?
Dear New Orleans Hornets Fans,
A potential trade offer for your consideration:
Rockets get
Chris Paul
Trevor Ariza (and his semi-odious contract)
Hornets get
Kevin Martin (to score most efficiently next to Jarrett Jack)
Johnny Flynn (‘09 lottery pick and your new backup PG)
Terrence Williams (’09 lottery pick and a likely starter at the 3)
While I won’t insult your intelligence by saying this is fair value for CP3, I think you’ll find this to be a better offering of young talent than anything the Knicks or Clippers will offer. Best of luck in your efforts to re-build a contender in one of my favorite cities in the world.
Sincerely,
A Houston Rocket Fan
by Moochie's Fro on Dec 3, 2011 10:33 PM CST up reply actions
You don't have to re-post this question multiple times
I’ll just block quote my answer to your re-post on the “CP3 Wouldn’t Insult Us” piece by Rohan:
I’m sorry to say, no, that potential trade offer is just as disgusting as anything the Knicks could offer.
I hope you realize that there’s not a lot of parity in a deal that exchanges a top-5 player and a defensive stud on a defense-oriented team for a frail shooting guard who can’t play defense, chucks shots worse than Ariza (seriously, look at that FGA/FG%. Yuck.), and oh yeah, is efficient only if he can get thwacked to the free throw line enough times, which isn’t exactly promising considering that he’s, you know, Mr. Glass, and in addition, a bad, disappointing backup PG who’s been dropped like a bad habit since he stepped on an NBA court, and the Nets/Rockets lackluster small forward, who just lights it up (sarcasm).
Actually, that trade could be potentially worse than anything the Knicks could offer, because Kevin Martin would cost more to keep and/or play than a handful of easily dispatched/replaceable Bill Walkers and Renaldo Balkmans. I don’t foresee the Rockets having the parts or being involved in the apparent chase for CP3, that is if we are unable to keep him in NOLA.
Also, the Clippers do have much more to offer in exchange than Houston. Just saying that they don’t doesn’t make it a fact until you actually back that claim up. And I’ll save you the work, you can’t, because the Rockets don’t. Houston is just beginning to rebuild and doesn’t have any combination of pieces to move for CP3 – if he actually goes on the move that is – that the Clippers, Magic, certainly do, or other teams that are similarly materially prepared to trade for a top-5.
And just a little advice, don’t fool yourself: Johnny Flynn and Terrence Williams are not “young talent” in the colloquial sense that we use that phrase to describe players as constituting “young talent,” like Eric Gordon, Brandon Jennings, or even Jeff Green. I’d take a guy who doesn’t even get that moniker, like Marcus Thornton, over Flynn or Williams in a nanosecond.
by Grand Tanyon Sturtze on Dec 4, 2011 12:54 PM CST up reply actions
Apologies for the multi-post, but let me respond here..
Regarding Ariza
Having watched Ariza for one awful season in Houston, I assumed it would be a big favor to help you unload his contract. But if you like Ariza (admittedly a far better defender than Martin) gambling for steals and his sub-40% FG% (not sure how you can rationalize 11 PPG on 10 shots/gm over 23 PPG on 15 shots), then the proposed trade is clearly an awful one (I actually like it better for the Rockets if you just subtract Ariza). But after 66 more games of Ariza on your re-building Hornets, I think you’ll come around to the opinion that Ariza needs to go.
Regarding young talent: I don’t think there’s any way you’re getting Eric Gordon from the Clippers. He’s a legit future All-star, and you didn’t see anyone of that caliber included in the sign-and-trades for Melo or LeBron. But if you can get Gordon, that’s an absolute no-brainer, as far as I’m concerned. Otherwise, welcome to Nawlins, Al-Farouq Aminu.
And you think CP3 would agree to an extension with Milwaukee to get Jennings??? Come on!
Stephen Curry is young talent to target. But again, you don’t have leverage for a cheap talent that the Warriors like; your best case Golden St. scenario is probably something centered on Monte Ellis, who’s just a shorter, much less efficient, ball-dominating version of Kevin Martin.
Look, it isn’t pretty. I know very well what it’s like to lose your star and get stuck in mediocrity. But unlike the Rockets, the Hornets don’t have a lot of tradeable assets, so you’re probably better off unloading bad contracts, gambling on potential, and tanking for the 2012 draft. If you can jump-start things with a Gordon, more power to you, but even the Clippers aren’t dumb enough to give away future All-star caliber players on rookie contracts. I think that’s just reality.
by Moochie's Fro on Dec 4, 2011 6:05 PM CST up reply actions
Ariza would be bad for many other teams, but the Hornets under Monty Williams are, along with Portland and Boston, one of the few NBA teams that seriously emphasize defense, and our opportunity-cost of not playing defense is much higher than Boston’s or Portland’s because they actually have one or more scorers, which we don’t. Ariza can get trey-happy but we’re definitely okay absorbing that for his playoff experience and ability to lockdown SGs and SFs. In contrast, Martin has just as low a FG%, but can’t defend, is frail, and can only impart efficient value if he’s fouled enough to get to the stripe – which is IMO’s why he gets hurt so easily and often. A frail SG who makes his bread getting hit to get to the FT line isn’t going to help a Monty Williams-led team. If we wanted a pure scorer who couldn’t be counted on to play defense, we’d have kept Marcus Thornton.
The LeBron/Melo comparisons aren’t really on-point. Gilbert bet the farm playing high-reward, high-risk chicken to keep LeBron and lost. I definitely don’t recall any serious rumors about Cleveland genuinely exploring a way to make hay out of unloading their franchise man from Akron.
The Anthony comparison’s way off too. Carmelo is less valuable than Paul, and the Nuggets had more diffuse needs
When they were looking to trade ‘Melo, they needed to be financially rescued from exceeding the luxury cap and infused with talent. They weren’t looking for Eric Gordon. Getting the former naturally reduced the caliber of the latter. Even so, they unloaded their hefty and/or bad contracts to old and/or bad players and got better talent (in Gallinari) than K-Mart in return. They also got a 1st-round and two 2nd-round picks. And $6 million in cash.
So let’s revisit the ‘Melo comparison:
(1) (The Nuggets) A team with more diffuse needs/demands (financial help, a very good player, and affordable young rotation pieces they could flexibly flip for value or keep to build on, dealt
(2) (Carmelo Anthony) a player less valuable than CP3, for
(3) NYK eating all of their hefty/bad contracts plus $6 million, and
(4) A rising young star who’s (below Gordon’s value but) more significantly more valuable than K-Mart, and
(5) Three rotation players they either let off the books to enhance interest #(3) or kept to build on (when China lets Wilson Chandler go), and
(6) One first and two 2nd-round picks
Our situation in New Orleans just presents Houston with too many differential challenges:
(1) Our needs are not really as diffuse (we need an owner, not to clear the books) and we have a better player to offer than Anthony
(2) Houston doesn’t even have someone as valuable as Gallinari, and their young players are simply not that good (seriously, have you looked at your roster lately? Johnny Flynn, Terrence Williams, Hasheem Thabeet, Chase Budinger, Goran Dragic et al.. IMO Scola’s the only reliable player Houston has, and no combination of Scola plus a post-draft regret like Flynn or a journeyman like Williams is within a light-year of a deal for a top-5 like Paul.
Jennings was just an example of what people colloquially refer to as “young talent,” not a suggestion that the Bucks should be considered part of the field. I have no idea about GSW. Assuming the Clippers won’t deal based on your opinion is simply your opinion, but Neil Olshey’s said before that he’s not afraid to make moves, they’ve dealt or acquired pretty big names recently, and they have a lot of financial flexibility to assume liabilities if other layers of complexity are added to the equation, like giving money or assuming liabilities. But it’s objectively true that Houston isn’t materially prepared to trade for Chris Paul.
by Grand Tanyon Sturtze on Dec 4, 2011 8:48 PM CST up reply actions
First, Trevor Ariza has missed more games than Kevin Martin in 5 of the 7 seasons they’ve been in the league, playing in 376 games vs Martin’s 435 during that time. So stop with the frail talk already.
Second, Martin is a MUCH more efficient offensive player, as his 19th ranked PER vs Ariza’s 253rd (and FG%/3G% of 43.6/38.3 for Martin vs 39.8/30.3 for Ariza, not a trivial difference) attest. Come on now!
But no need to belabor this further, because your best point is that different teams value different things. You value Ariza’s defensive play over K-Mart’s efficiency. Fair enough. I’ve seen Ariza’s play, albeit only for one season with the Rockets, and we value Courtney Lee’s defense/efficiency/cheap contract over Ariza’s. Once you hit full-fledged rebuilding mode, you may, just as I did, start to value what Ariza brings a little differently. Without David West to man the post and CP3 to set him up, Ariza pressing on offense ain’t pretty.
So I hear you, enough about the Rockets, already. Except let me add that the roster, which you so disparage, without a star, finished with about as good a record as your Hornets. I suspect the players are a little better than you think.. But yes, there is a reason why I’m dreaming scenarios that they can get CP3 and Dwight Howard.
by Moochie's Fro on Dec 5, 2011 12:06 AM CST up reply actions
And oh, about Eric Gordon, you’re right, it’s just my opinion. I LOVE Eric Gordon. I may be a little irrational about it. If you can get him for CP3, I think that’s a best-case scenario, because in your current situation (maybe in any situation), you can’t get fair value for the best PG in the game.
So yes, Paul is better than Melo. I agree. Wholeheartedly so. But what you can trade for depends not on what he’s worth, but on the market (without a desperate big-market Knicks or Nets looking to make a splash). So good luck with that.
Trust me, a Rockets fan. Having a star-less roster that’s not good enough to get better than a 7-seed, and not bad/lucky enough to win the lottery is NBA purgatory. You’ll be dreaming unrealistic scenarios to trade for a star too.
by Moochie's Fro on Dec 5, 2011 12:24 AM CST up reply actions
Orton...
Now I will start of by saying I am a life long Hornets fan and a current student/fan at Kentucky… That being said we DO NOT want Orton. I’ve been watching him play since we started scouting him in high school and in my opinion his ceiling is a below average NBA starter. He left his college career with under 4ppg, 3rpg, and 1bpg. Granted the fact he was behind Patterson and Cousins he never looked like he he knew what he was doing and had serious knee injuries, and then coming off surgery 1 year ago. I still love the guy and wish him the best but that’s my 2 cents on his NBA future or lack thereof.
I still agree with Rohan's prior post.
You keep CP3. I say don’t trade him to anyone. All it can possibly say is that “Yes, we agree, the Hornets are an inferior team that cannot hold on to superstars.” Everyone is clamoring to “not let him go for nothing!” But that’s what free agency is. Besides, if he opts-out and becomes a free agent, there is no contender that will be able to afford him. His choices are limited, and if we are winning, he may consider staying here regardless. Especially if West signs a multi-year deal with us.
Psychologically, people are more afraid to lose $1 than they are excited to gain $1. That principle applies here. People are terrified of losing a superstar more than they are excited about the prospect of gaining (or retaining) one. Trade talk is interesting, but I think the Hornets will be making a big mistake if they do anything other than tell CP they will not trade him, and that he will be the focus of their team as long as he as here; and, moreover, that they will not quit on trying to make him happy until he signs the dotted line with another team as a free agent, because until then, they believe they can keep him here.
by m-W on Dec 2, 2011 2:23 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
The problem with the $1 analogy
Is that the risk in obtaining another Chris Paul level superstar is unbelievably skewed. At any one time, the # of Chris Paul level players in the league hovers between something like 4 and 6 (right now, players in that range are him, LeBron, Dwight, Wade, and maybe Dirk. Rose isn’t in this level, nor Kobe). The odds we get another Chris Paul in the next 10-15 years are so minimal that I think the fear of losing Paul trumping the excitement for another star is justifiable
But
What about losing Chris Paul vs. keeping Chris Paul?
by m-W on Dec 2, 2011 2:41 PM CST up reply actions
Agree with you there
Which is why I still want to see us play out the year. What Dell Demps does between now and December 25th will be crucial of course. But if we get a good setup and then a good season (which, if Paul is healthy, we’ll have by definition), we WILL have cap space next summer for two max guys. Important people keep this in mind. If Chouest is on board by then? Huge.
All comes down to Demps right now. Huge pressure
superstars.. bleh
Superstars are the main problem. I don’t want any more superstars on this team.
Let’s build a TEAM.
Superstars cause too much trouble.
Frankly, I don’t want a reluctant CP to play for this team, just because “his other choices are limited”. We’ve got to cut him loose before he begins infecting the team with his grumblings.
I’d be happy to see him go for a veteran player, some expiring contracts and some draft picks.
Last thing I want is for NO to “not quit until they make CP3 happy”. NO NO NO!
I'm sure you don't mean no superstars ever
because w/o at least one, winning a championship is infinitely harder.
true
But it’s also true that superstars can throw your team for loops from which it can take years to recover (e.g., LJ/Alonzo Mourning fiasco)\ and now this.
I’d much prefer a balanced team, like the Pistons teams that were so successful earlier this decade, including winning the championship.
If Orlando Can Get CP3
With absolutely nothing worth value on its roster, why the hell can’t New Orleans get Dwight Howard with absolutely nothing worth value on its roster?
"You play to win the game."
I been saying this since day one.
we got the same chance of paul going to orlando that howard does coming here.. we should push for it.
Get it to Winslow. He's open!!!!
Hello. Seriously not trying to be a troll, and I hope this does not come off like that.
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7fvcbw4
You guys shed Ariza and Okafor while getting Nelson(tradeable), Redick(tradeable), Bass(tradable), Orton(who the GM wanted two years ago I believe I read correctly at the time) and would also get Josh Smith from Atlanta. And only Orton has a contract longer than two years. I only mention this because I don’t what GM would trade for Paul without a a guarantee of an extension. So I don’t think the Clips are legit option and no one else would trade. Moore is wrong in saying NOLA could get the Magic 2012 first round pick, Orlando has to draft since they did not draft last year. Now they could probably “draft” for New Orleans but still not sure how it would work.
I know someone mentioned earlier why don’t the Hornets trade for Dwight? Hornets don’t have anyone who the Magic could flip or has an expiring contract within two years or so. That is why it is not a realistic option. Please I hope no one views this a troll post.
Roll Bass and War Ryno for me
some info on players and numbers - for those curious as to what (if ever) could be exchanged
• Emeka Okafor and Chris Paul
FOR
• J Nelson, R Anderson, B Bass, JJ Redick, D Orton, J Harper, D Liggins, 2012 and 2014 1st round picks
- Nelson (29), aside from trade value, is a leader and the type of veteran locker room presence needed on a rebuilding young team. If you get a young franchise type player, this is the guy you want him next to.
- Ryan Anderson (23) is a very underrated rebounder much better than the numbers show – remember he is playing next to the leagues best rebounder. His defense and physical strength are incrementally improving as well. He is rumored to be working with the same guy that turned JJ Redick from a horrific defender to a smart and able defender. His offensive game is super efficient (19.09 PER) and if his defense improves even slightly he is a legit starter with very high potential.
- Justin Harper is looking like he’s going to be a 2nd round draft steal – doing good in europe right now. He is a deadly shooting forward – upside depends on how his body matures, thin but tall.
- Orton is still a great unknown – was hurt last yr so nobody knows what he has – but he is very young and big
- Redick is a high basketball IQ that keeps the offense and defense running smoothly. He is a very solid back up that can step into starters role for stretches but not on a deep playoff team. He makes very few mistakes and a very efficient scorer, always hustles and thrives under pressure.
- incoming rookie, D Liggins is a defensive specialist wing with no offensive game.
2011 CBA: Non-taxpaying teams (based on their post-trade salary level) can acquire up to the lesser of 150% plus $100,000, or 100% plus $5 million of the salaries they trade away. Larrry Coon
• NOLA (sending) $28.9m = Okafor (12.5) + Paul (16.4)
• NOLA (receiving) 100% of $23.9m + $5m = $28.9m *this is the lower of the two
or
• NOLA (receiving): 150% of $23.9m + various $0 trade value assets = $35.85
2011 CBA: Taxpaying teams can acquire no more than 125 percent plus $100,000 of the salaries they trade away (same as 2005 CBA). Larrry Coon
• MAGIC: Nelson (7.8) + Bass (4) + Ryan (2.25) + JJ (6.75) + Orton (1.1) + signed Harper (1) + signed Liggins (1) + 2012 and/or 2014 1st round picks (0 trade value) = $23.9
• MAGIC (receiving): $28.9m
• MAGIC (sending): 125% of $23.9m + $0 value assets = $29.87m
Draft picks (both first and second round) count $0 for salary matching purposes. This is true both before and after the draft, until the player signs a contract. NBA FAQ 74
Chris Paul is on a MAX contract and thus trade kicker does not apply:
A trade bonus cannot cause a player’s salary to exceed the maximum salary, based on his years of service, during the year of the trade. NBA FAQ 86
I don't see it
You’re way overselling most of these players’ actual productive ability with a bunch of qualitative mush.
Jameer Nelson is a veteran, that much is clear. He’s also injury-prone, not something we need in a city that badly needs smooth, quick transition to a polished young PG if we are unable to hold onto CP3. Having a veteran PG that could go miss 25 games, compounded now because of his history, doesn’t do a lot for a young PG we would need to acquire or draft that needs to learn on-court, quickly.
Also, his shooting numbers, as well as Redick & the other minute-heavy guards on the Magic, are IMO inflated, because defenses sag into paint b/c of Dwight Howard. That’s why almost all talk about Van Gundy’s team centers on whether or not they are sacrificing too many looks to their frequently open (not exactly studly) stable of perimeter shooters at the expense of inside looks by Howard, notwithstanding the fact that he’s often the focal point of the other team’s defense.
As soon as Nelson and Redick are on other teams with an undersized, offensively non-threatening center like Emeka Okafor, their shots are going to be challenged much more than they are used to, and their production will foreseeably decline.
I can’t even bring myself to address your attempt to advert for Orton, Harper, and Liggins, so I won’t.
No way your hypo. deal is remotely possible or fair. A deal with the Magic is possibly, but I honestly can’t bring myself to say probably, feasible.
by Grand Tanyon Sturtze on Dec 4, 2011 3:26 PM CST up reply actions
just giving you guys some intangible / not readily available info
I don’t think the Magic have an amazing package of players to offer you guys either, not intentional if it sounded that way.
The trade is really for you guys to acquire bridge assets to fill your roster (to meet the new 85% minimum salary requirement).
• Nelson and Redick while unproven outside of Orlando’s 4/1 offense; are more valuable to you as trade assets than players. Since you guys will likely be under the cap, in a trade – their contracts can land you up to $21 million in assets. This is the new trade provision of CBA, teams under cap can trade for up to 150% of outgoing contracts. Plus because they are both on team and player option expiring contracts next summer, their value will highly increase at the trade deadline.
• The only guy which I think is a keeper for you guys is Ryan Anderson, he has progressed nicely. In a couple of years when he nears his prime he’s going to be very good in my opinion.
• Harper is doing good overseas and is a sharpshooting 6’10" forward and a 2nd round pick so obviously cheap roster filler. Orton or Liggins – are unknowns just giving what scouting info we have on them.
This deal is not flashy or something that makes the casual Hornet fan go out and buy tickets but it does give you options.
- it is better than NY’s offer
- LA can give you more but I just can’t see Chris Paul agreeing to sign away his prime years with the terrible Clippers franchise. He’s got to know that Blake Griffin’s future with LA is not entirely assured (qualifying offer in 2013). An he surely knows the team would be gutted after the trade. Will the (notoriously cheap) and cap restricted Clippers be able to build around the two – especially after the cap dramatically drops in 2013.
But if he, as rumored, has indicated he would resign w/ Clips then LA is definitely your best option.
it's all good
I just don’t think it would be wise to, and I don’t think Demps would embrace as much risk as to, trade a top-5 player for trade assets when our lack of an owner makes it too hard to predict what kind of team we will be able to afford/told to assemble once we do, and we have no knowledge of who/what will be available in the post-CBA landscape. IMO it is just too risky to flip a top-5 for trade assets with that level of unpredictability and our shorter rebuilding timescale here due to the fragility of our situation here. It was a close call just making requisite attendance last season with Paul, and I think it would put interest in/the future of the franchise in New Orleans in potentially serious jeopardy if we moved him for trade bait.
I just don’t buy the idea that we actually get some kind of value in re trading Paul in a package substantially comprised of Orton/Liggins/Harper. It’s not personal. Sorry.
I think a trade with Orlando framed like that is just as bad as a trade with New York. I’m sure Ryan Anderson would have to be part of an Orlando deal for Paul, but the more I look at it, the more hypo. deals with the Magic look like a stretch. That’s just IMO though.
I can see Paul wanting to play for the Clippers. He would be able to play on a serious contender, under the bright lights, and make the franchise his own. He could win it all and make the franchise his. IMO Griffin would definitely re-sign if Paul was leading the Clipper attack, no-brainer for me. Their games are sick nasty complementary, and although Sterling’s historical business model has been to gut rosters to max profits, he probably realizes that he can make even more off of the franchise with Griffin and a good team than stripping it to parts when his #1 was Michael Olowakandi.
by Grand Tanyon Sturtze on Dec 4, 2011 9:06 PM CST up reply actions
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