FanPost

Biz is Bad

I love Biz. He’s my favorite bobcat. But it’s time to face the reality that biz simply is not very good at basketball right now. At this stage in his career, he’s not a good defender or offensive player, and the stats certainly back that up.

DEFENSE?!?!

I know biz has a reputation as a good defender around ROF, but I assure you, that’s just not true right now. His individual defensive numbers are completely abysmal. He’s ranked 138th in post up defense (Bad), 119th in spot up defense (excusable because of the bobcat’s defensive schemes last year), 255th in iso defense (BAD!!!), and 256th in overall defense (SHIELD YOUR EYES). The lone bright spot is his p&r defense where he’s ranked 62nd, a very solid mark for a player in a team that was bad at defending the p&r. If you’re not a fan of synergy stats, he allowed opponents to have a per of 17.7 at the pf spot and 17.4 at the c spot, well above the league average of 15 (also bad). This all adds up to a player that just isn’t very good at individual defense.

BUT DEFENSE IS A TEAM SPORT…HOW DID HE DO THERE?

He posted better, but still below average marks when you look at the effect he had on the team defense when he was on the court. When he was OFF the court, the bobcats allowed .4 points per 100 possessions LESS than when he was on the court, indicating that he had a slight negative impact on our defense. When your backup bigs are McBob, Mullens, Hayward, Adrien, Diop and Tyrus (all below average defensive players at this point in their careers), you should expect him to have large positive impact on the bobcat’s team defense. Now…it’s a testament to his team defense that he managed to not have a very negative impact on the bobcat’s team defense despite his awful individual defense, BUT that doesn’t change the fact that he still had a slight negative impact on the team’s defense.

BUT HE HAD TO COMPINSATE FOR BAD DEFENDERS

The impact of the bobcats on biz probably lead to him being worse in terms of individual defense, so his synergy stats are probably negatively inflated BUT… every big on the bobcats had to deal with that stuff so it shouldn’t really effect the fact that the team’s defense was worse with him on the court. All this adds up to a player that is not really that much better than players we know to be bad defenders (like Mullins or McRoberts).

OFFENSE?!?!

Here’s where it gets really ugly. He ranks 384th in overall offensive efficiency, 156th in post up efficiency, 153rd in p&r efficiency, 224th in cut efficiency, 131st in offensive rebound efficiency, 108th in transition defense and 130th in all other play efficiency. It’s really bad that none of those numbers are below 100. And it’s not just that he’s inefficient, he also rarely shoots, scoring a depressing 4.8 points per game. Anyway none of this is particularly ground breaking, I think y’all know how bad he is on offense. But he hasn’t improved at all on offense since last year. A lot of you point to the notion that biz is taking more difficult shots this year and that is resulting in a reduced field goal percentage BUT that’s just not true. Some people say that he’s taken (and made) more post shots/hook shots but again, that’s just not true. He made the exact same number of hook shots in 2011 as in 2012 despite taking 9 (9!!!) more hook shots this year than last. He also made 4 more jump shots last year in comparison to this year (although he shot 4 more shots last year). So his post game and jump shot hasn’t actually improved from last year to this year. And while he’s taking more difficult shots, he’s all the extra ones he’s taking. Further, his per fell from 10.6 to 10.1, and while the stats can’t capture how much less lost he looked on offense this year in comparison to last, the stats can capture how his skills did not undergo any positive transformation from last year to this year.

FUTURE PROGRESSION

I accept that Biz is only 20, and his best years are ahead of him, but his game, even at this point, should be far above where it is (even at this age). The only decent players who had a per with a plus or minus of 2 (from biz’s per of 10.1) at their age 20 seasons are Andray Blatche, Trevor Ariza, Wilson Chandler, Robin Lopez, Darrell Arthur, Perkins, Humphries, Al Harrington and Brandon Bass. That’s a success percentage of 47% for role players. The rest of that list is full of guys like Alton ford, Mouhamed Sene and Antonis Fotsis (so that’s the floor for this group of players with a similar per to biz). But it’s not like any of these good guys have gone on to have great careers after posting similar seasons to biz, the highest season win shares in that group is 6.1 and the second highest season win shares is 4 (which are not inspiring numbers). Most of their season win shares are around 2 or 3 (rather than 4 and 6). Couple that with the fact that biz actually (statistically) regressed from last year to this year, the future is just not looking bright for him. Now, I know he’s a hard worker, and picked up basketball very late in his life, but if we expect him to become a decent starter, he’s going to have to buck historical trends and become the exception to the rule. Even though I love biz, I am not convinced he should be in our long term plans.



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