The general consensus on this site and in the media is that it will take between $6MM and $8MM per year to sign Hendo. As a restricted free agent, this depends on how the rest of the league values him and the terms of their offer sheet. If Henderson signs the offer sheet, we have three days to match or let him go for nothing. There is also the possibility that we work out a deal with him during this process as well (see Tiago Splitter 3 year $36MM as a RFA with a similar qualifying offer as Henderson).
After two days of free agency, I think we have a couple of comparable offers that we can use to get a gauge on Henderson's potential value.
Case #1 - J.J. Redick (4 year $27MM)
In the sign and trade scenario, Redick will get a four year, $27 million deal with the Clippers, sources tell Y! Sports.— Adrian Wojnarowski (@WojYahooNBA) July 2, 2013
Both former blue devils, who took two very different foundations and ended up with somewhat similar games. Without too much analysis here as we're all familiar with Hendo and I'm sure most know Redick... to me what's interesting is Hendo started out as an athlete who wasn't a great shooter and Redick started out as a shooter who wasn't much of an athlete. But because they are both tireless workers, they've improved their weaknesses throughout their careers. Henderson has the advantage in play making, athleticism, defense, and age... while Redick is clearly the better three point shooter (career 39% on 3.6 attempts per game).
If you like both equal, then you probably should add a little bit onto Redick's deal if you're trying to make an assumption on Henderson. Restricted Free Agency breeds overpaying (wait for the Tyreke section).
Redick's Comparable Henderson Deal...four year $30MM.
Side note... (Bucks essentially turned Tobias Harris into two 2nd round picks... losers).
A second signing today that is also of interest...
#2 - K-Mart opening in Minnesota (4 year $28MM)
Free agent Kevin Martin has reached agreement on a four year, $28 million deal with Minnesota, league source tells Y! Sports.— Adrian Wojnarowski (@WojYahooNBA) July 2, 2013
Looks like K-mart is back baby, and taking a deal very comparable to what Henderson might want. To me this deal might even improve Charlotte's leverage. My thinking: Martin has produced in the league for a long time and has career %s of 44%/38.5%/86.7%... not to mention six straight seasons averaging 20+ PPG. His defense is not of the same caliber as Henderson (or Redick's for that matter) and he's a little older (30 years old, 9 seasons, 17,000 minutes)... but it's a great contract comparison. I think Charlotte could argue that Henderson is worth slightly less than Martin...
Martin's Comparable Henderson Deal... four years $26MM.
Another deal that some might use to judge Henderson's value (especially his own agent)...
#3 Tyreakin' Sweet Offer Sheet for Evans (4 years $40-$48MM).
Pelicans reportedly offer Tyreke Evans 4yr $40-48 million, I need to get back in gym......— Reggie Miller (@ReggieMillerTNT) July 2, 2013
This deal is so sweet, it's got Reggie Miller contemplating a comeback. I mean this has to be a horrible offer right? Now I don't think this contract is as crazy as everyone thinks. Sacramento has been a horrible franchise, with no real organization or culture. Maybe he gets into a better situation and and blows up, who knows? But you can convince yourself there is upside, considering he's only 23.
I put the 4 year $40MM dollar offer slightly above his perceived market value, which is what it takes to win over a RFA. The Kings (and their new and most likely improved ownership) are thinking hard about this one.
And if they're thinking hard about it, I'm sure we are too. Because this likely affects us, the question is how? Other than us possibly stealing Robin Lopez... I think this sets the ceiling on Hendo's value. And only his agent and his mother probably think his ceiling is actually $10MM per year. Still if you're Henderson's agent, you're going to the table with this deal and making your best claim that your client is a superior defensive player, a locker room leader, and with enough minutes, can put up similar offensive numbers.
Not sure if Cho buys that pitch, but I think in a vacuum this ups Henderson's value.
Tyreke's Comparable Henderson Deal... four years $35MM.
#4 Monta Ellis' Hubris
Monta Ellis has informed the Bucks that he'll opt out of his contract for next season. Milwaukee had offered Ellis an extension worth $36M.— NBA Rumors (@NBARUMORS) June 17, 2013
The man turned down a $24MM extension, putting his annual salary over the next three years at about $12MM per, so he could hit the open market. I'm not getting into this one, I don't think his stupidity affects Henderson.
Now that we've looked at the four most pertinent free agency events, let's talk about who's still out there and the teams that might be interested in them.
Shooting Guards, Who Needs Em?
- O.J. Mayo - good Hendo comp - however his two main suitors were the Clippers and Timberwolves, and as we know from above, they just signed themselves some shootin' guards.
- Tony Allen - can't compare him to Henderson because the man can't shoot... but still, he might command similar money because of his presence on defense. Also originally tied to the Clippers (Doc has been eating a LOT of meals), Woj is reporting that Denver might be in play (especially if they lose Iggy). Late edit... four year deal worth $20MM. I think this helps set Hendo's deal at around 4/$25MM.
- Andre Iguodala - not really a fair comparison. He is the "top offseason priority" for the Kings and either 1A or 1B for the Pistons. Late edit... Just reported that the Kings offered him a 4 year $56MM deal.
Teams Looking for Shooting Guards:
- With flexibility looking for a shooting guard:
- Atlanta, Detroit, Sacramento (potentially if they lose Tyreke), Dallas, Denver (if they lose Iggy)
- Without flexibility also looking for a shooting guard, but probably can't afford Henderson:
So really, the market has thinned out. Who knows, Hendo might not even get an offer sheet worth signing. Would he dare play out his qualifying offer to hit free agency next summer? Would Cho let that happen or would he try to sign him long term this summer?
What do you think will happen...