A couple of days ago, just hours before the Al Jefferson signing, I was talking about how the bobcats were going to be terrible once again without the addition of a free agent. Now that we’ve signed a big free agent, I have done a similar statistical analysis to determine our expected wins with the addition of Jefferson.
31.3299 wins, or 31 if you like rounding. That’s how many games my model predicts the bobcats will win (assuming perfect health). My formula is as follows:
(AW=age adjusted win shares, MAW=minutes adjusted win shares, MTAW=minutes and team adjusted win shares)
For each player:
(.97891×AW×(Projected Minutes*82)/(Total 2012 minutes))¦=MAW
For Al Jefferson:
MAW*(Bobcats projected wins)/(Utah total wins last year)=Al Jefferson MTAW
For Cody Zeller: (all the numbers below that begin with 1 are the average progression for the years cody zeller will go through, x is cody zeller’s first year production that we are trying to find)
Average #4 pick production over first 4 years=((x*1.08104)+((x*1.08104)*1.0638)+(((x*1.08104)*1.0638)*1.0496)+((((x*1.08104)*1.0638)*1.0496)*1.0372))/(4)
Cody Zeller first year production*(Bobcats projected wins)/(Average Nba Record)=Cody Zeller MTAW
Wins from Dunlap to Clifford: (the thing is that we don’t know if Clifford is actually a good coach yet so…this prediction could be much larger than it should be)
Assuming the difference from Dunlap to Clifford is the same as the difference between doc and Stevens,
Coaching Wins=expected wins from 16th pick
((SUM( MAW for all players on bobcats last year)-〖Bobcats Points Scored〗^13.91/〖〖Bobcats Points allowed〗^13.91+Bobcats Points Scored〗^13.91 )/(〖Bobcats Points Scored〗^13.91/〖〖Bobcats Points allowed〗^13.91+Bobcats Points Scored〗^13.91 )+Al Jefferson MTAW+Cody Zeller MTAW+Coaching Wins)*.98503=Bobcats Projected Wins
So, that’s my formula for getting the bobcat’s projected wins (sorry for the formatting, it looked a lot nicer in word).
But the thing is, I feel like the bobcats are better than a 31 team right now. We have a lineup of guys who are likely in the top half at their position, and we’re a pretty deep team (when I was projecting minutes I was really struggling to keep our total minutes under 240 because we have so many quality players). However, after really looking closely at each player on the bobcats, I think that most of us are suffering from a collective overrating of all our players.
How good is Kemba actually?
With the exception of a few guys on this site, I think the majority believe that kemba is a very good player, surely within the top half (or at least in the middle of the pack) in terms of point guards. After looking at his synergy stats, I’m just not sure that’s the case. Overall, he’s the 208th most efficient player in the league (which isn’t good), scoring .91 points per possession. While he does score a good deal, he does not do it in a way that is efficient enough to really be a positive force on the team. This manifests itself with the team only getting .2 points per 100 possessions worse with kemba off the court. If he was truly a really positive offensive force, that number would be much higher. The play he was best at (in terms of his league rankings) was shooting in a pick and roll ball handler situation, but shots from the ball handler in the pick and roll are far less efficient than shots from the roller. As a team, only 3.8% of our shots came from our pick and roll man, to 15.2% from the ball handler. That’s an unacceptable percentage that really reflects upon how kemba was not very good at setting up his teammates in the p&r (I do accept that his teammates were not very good at the pick and roll, but you can’t just attribute all the blame to them). His passing deficiencies go beyond the pick and roll; he simply is not that good of a passer in the half court. But it isn’t his offense that scares me the most, it is his defense. He was the 307th (307!!!!) most efficient defender last year. I realize that a lot of our guys had their defensive rank reduced because of their atrocious spot up defense (which indicates to me more of a team problem rather than an individual problem), but kemba was bad across the board, even if we ignore his spot up defense. He was ranked 249 in iso defense (really bad), 150 in p&r ball handler defense (pretty bad), 206 in post up defense (makes up a surprisingly large number of defensive possessions for a point guard, and he was bad at it), 203 in spot up defense (forgivable because of Dunlap), 85th in off screen defense (FINALY SOMETHING NOT TERRIBLE, but it only made up 6% of his defense), and 92nd in hand off defense (YAY NOT AWFUL, but still, only 4%). This indicates to me a player who isn’t just bad on defense; he’s a player who’s awful on defense. Taking into account his relative inefficiencies on offence, his lack of passing and his god awful defense, I just can’t make an argument that he is even close to an average point guard. Sure, he does bring a few things to the table (and I’m sure his offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency suffered from playing on such a terrible team), but the numbers are really not in his favor.
How good is Hendo?
He’s good. He’s a solid, efficient offensive player. His defense just seems a tad overrated to me though. He ranked 37th in iso defense (which is a very good mark for a sg), but his pick and roll defense was lacking to say the least (ranked 214th), his post up d was also bad ranking at 272nd, and his spot up d was disturbing (ranking at 359). I do think that his spot up d was more a product of Dunlap rather than him, but that still does not negate the fact that he just is not a very good post up defender and pick and roll defender. That needs to change for him to be as good on d as everyone here thinks he is.
How good is MKG?
Overrated, cause he’s young. His defense last year was very admirable, ranking at 42nd in iso defense, 45th in p&r defense (ball handler) and 41st in post up defense. Ranking highly in these categories really indicates that you’re a good individual defender. Unfortunately his spot up defense was really bad, but I’m going to blame that on Dunlap instead of mkg (303). So he is a really good defender, but what about his offense? It does not look good there. Almost 40% of his offense came from cuts, offensive rebounds, transition buckets and “other plays”. While it is good to know he can do those things, such a high percentage indicates to me that he simply does not have the ability to create his own offense at this point in the game and is not that valuable of a half court player. We know how bad of a shooter he is, but unfortunately spot up shots made up the largest portion of his offense (as does it for most players), so despite his inability to shoot currently, he was forced to because of the needs of an nba team. He ranked at 351 for spot up shoots. He also wasn’t good at creating offense through the pick and roll and in post up situations. The only real bright spot is his iso play, where he ranked at 77th, which is a solid mark. So while he is a very good defender, his offense is currently one of the worst of starting small forwards, indicating to me a player that is still below average.
How good is Cody Zeller?
I have no idea, because WE HAVENT EVEN WATCHED HIM PLAY YET. Any talk of him being a bust or being an all star is premature. Let’s at least wait till the summer league.
How good is Al Jefferson?
That deserves a fan post off its own.
How good is McRoberts
Simply, I think that because of our depth of bigs, Mcroberts role is going to be diminished dramatically (if we want to give Zeller and biz actual minutes). Anyway, he is a solid offensive player who is decently efficient and decently productive, BUT, his defense is kemba bad. It kind of eliminates any gains he produces on offense.
LAWZ. He’s still really bad at basketball. Both his offensive efficiency numbers and defensive efficiency numbers are disturbingly bad.
The point of all that is to show that, even thought the bobcat’s roster does not look awful, that’s because our familiarity with the players has lead us to over rate them slightly. Though you could look at this team and say, we’ll win 42 games next year, I just think that that is a product of an over familiarization with our players. In other words, 31 wins is a lot more realistic for the skill of our players right now. I realize that all these players are still very young and I’m sure that they will all be very good players in their prime, but what we have to remember is that player progression is a progress, it does not just happen overnight. It is more realistic to expect gradual changes in their games rather than a LARRY SANDERS!!!! Jump. So a prediction of 31 wins isnt only supported by the stats, but it is also supported by our talent level.