Today we have an interview with sports economist and statistician David Berri. He kind enough to give us his thoughts on a variety of topics, including Chris Paul v. Deron Williams, what James Posey brings to the team, and whether Hilton Armstrong may pan out yet. I'd introduce him more thoroughly, but he does a pretty good job of it himself...

At the Hive: Let me start by thanking you for taking the time to talk to us. For Hornets fans who don't know who you are, who is Dave Berri?

David Berri: Most importantly, an Associate Professor of Economics at Southern Utah University.  In other words, I am just a college professor.  Beyond that, I am also vice-president of the North American Association of Sports Economists, lead author of The Wages of Wins (Stanford Press), author or co-author of over 20 academic articles on the economics of sports, and the primary writer at The Wages of Wins Journal

@tH: Have you always been a basketball fan? If not, how were you drawn towards analyzing it instead of, say, football?

DB: Well, I analyze football also.  But I started looking at basketball in graduate school.  When I started looking at the economics of sports, most articles looked at baseball. It seemed to me that basketball had not been examined as much, primarily because measuring performance was more difficult.

@tH: Can you give us a quick summary of Wages of Wins? How does the approach you use to arrive at "Wins Produced" differ from other current basketball statistics?

DB: When people think about The Wages of Wins, they tend to think about basketball.  It’s our work on basketball that caught the attention of Malcolm Gladwell, as well as many other reviewers.  But the book is about quite a bit more.  Essentially the Wages of Wins takes work we wrote on a variety of subjects in sports and economics from academic journals to the general public.  The book begins with a discussion of labor disputes and sports, then moves on to the link between payroll and wins, the measurement and determinants of competitive balance, and then the value of star power in the NBA.  All of that is just the first half of the book.  In the second half we introduced Wins Produced and Win Score (our measures of player performance in the NBA), discuss the ability of NBA players to "step-it-up" in the playoffs, and discuss the consistency of performance in football, baseball, and basketball.  The book concludes with a look at decision-making in the NBA, presenting evidence that scoring is over-valued by coaches and general managers in basketball.

 Wins Produced is detailed in Chapters Six and Seven of the book.  It’s important to note that the book doesn’t include any mathematical equations.  To see those you need to look at an article that was just published in The Business of Sports (a three volume collection edited by Brad Humphreys and Dennis Howard). 

 What makes Wins Produced different is that it is entirely based on regression analysis (the standard statistical method used by economists).  This analysis begins by carefully laying forth the relationship between the statistics the NBA tracks for individual players and team wins (again, you need to see the aforementioned article for the math behind all of this).  With this relationship established we can determine the value of various statistics (points, rebounds, steals, turnovers, etc…) in terms of team wins.  These values are then used to determine the impact each player has on team wins.

 The idea that scoring is over-valued can be seen without looking at Wins Produced.  Simply modeling free agent salaries or the coaches voting for the All-Rookie team tells that story.  Wins Produced, though, also tells this tale.  Players who score inefficiently will simply not produce many wins.  That should make intuitive sense.  Launching shots that do not go in does not actually help a team win games.  Unfortunately, if a player can score – even if that doesn’t happen very efficiently – he can score a major payday.  Hence the incentives of players (i.e. the desire to get paid gobs of money) are not consistent with the incentives of teams (i.e. the desire to win many games).

 A few last notes on the NBA...

It’s important to remember that payroll and wins are not highly correlated in the NBA.  This is the same story we see in football and baseball.  But in the latter two sports, performance is very inconsistent across time. So it’s hard for decision-makers in baseball and football to predict the future and therefore we should not be surprised when payroll can’t explain wins in these sports.

 In basketball, the box score statistics are much more consistent across time (relative to what we see in baseball and football). And these statistics do explain wins.  So we should see teams with the most money acquire the best players.  But this is not what we see.  Although you can see this in the regression analysis, the New York Knicks illustrate the point.  Over the past few years the Knicks have been among the league leaders in payroll but nowhere near the league leaders in wins.

 @tH: One of the more problematic issues today is that "all assists are not created equal." An assister gets the same credit for setting up a guarded, fade-away 26 footer as he does for breaking down two defenders and creating a layup. Due to that, are assists overrated or underrated by current media?

DB: Assists are a fairly crude statistic.  It is the only stat in basketball that is entirely based on the scorer’s judgment.  So we should not be entirely sure about the reliability of assists as a measure of performance.  That being said, I have found that players are more productive when their teammates get more assists.  Although the direction of the causality is not entirely clear, I think assists tell us something.

 As for the media…members of the media do not generally have any training in statistics.  In general it appears they follow this rule: If the numbers support the argument then the numbers are used, if not, the numbers are ignored. 

@tH: If I recall correctly, you looked at Chris Paul's and Deron William's college careers a while back, and came to the conclusion that CP should have been the higher pick. By numerous statistics, Paul has bested Williams for three years now. How wide is the gap currently, according to WoW? And is there any truth to the idea that Deron Williams is a better "fit" for Utah than Chris Paul would be?

DB: Chris Paul led the NBA last year with 25.4 Wins Produced.  So he was the most productive player in the game.   Deron Williams was very good, producing 15.4 wins.  This mark ranked 16th in the league.  Among point guards, only Paul, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups, and Jose Calderon produced more than Williams.  In sum, Williams is a very good point guard.  But he is not nearly as productive as Paul. 

 As for the better fit issue… I think Utah would be better off with Paul.  Player performance can be negatively impacted by changing teams.  That being said, the effect is not that great.  So I think given the very large difference in productivity numbers between Paul and Williams, I think Paul would likely be more productive than Williams in Utah.

@tH: Staying on the subject of Paul, various statistics suggest that he had one of the greatest offensive seasons by a point guard in history (#1 all time PER, #1 all time Win Shares). In your estimation, where did his last campaign rank historically and what could he have improved?

DB: Since 1991-92, no guard in the NBA has produced more than 25 wins in a single season.  So what Chris Paul did in 2007-08 was very impressive.  Basically you have to go back to the 1980s – when Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan surpassed the 25 win mark a few times – to find a guard who played better than Paul.

@tH: I don't mean to open Pandora's Box here, but there's a question I intend to ask of every sports statistician I ever talk to, heh. What's your take on so-called clutch ability? Does it exist?

DB: As noted earlier, we have looked at performance in the playoffs and the regular season in the NBA.  This analysis failed to find any evidence that a player could systematically play better in the post seasons.  Although I think people can look at this in different ways, I think the underlying story is suspect.  The "clutch ability" story is that a player can simply turn "it" on when his team needs it.   So, according to this story, when a team needs a three pointer to win, certain players can simply step up and hit that shot.   But if that were true, why can’t that same player turn it on earlier in the game? If he did the team probably wouldn’t need a last second three-point shot. 

 My sense is that certain players generally get to take last second shots on teams.  Some of these are bound to go in, and when that happens, the player hitting the shot (and other people around the player) tend to think the player has some special ability.  In reality, a certain percentage of these shots -- given the general shooting ability of the player – are bound to go in the basket.  In other words, hitting a last second shot (or even several such shots) doesn’t mean a player has any special skills.

@tH: The James Posey signing brought up an intriguing question- what exactly is the "value" of winning a championship? (ie, how many consequent mediocre seasons are worth one title?) Is there an answer to this seemingly subjective conundrum from an economics standpoint?

DB: First of all, James Posey is an above average player (at least that is the Wins Produced story).  I talked about this in the following post:

Pargo Helps Out the Hornets

So Posey helps the Hornets with his production on the court.  Now does the fact Posey has played on championship teams help? I don’t buy this story.  The Celtics were led in the 2008 NBA Finals by Garnett, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Rajon Rondo. None of these players had won an NBA title before 2008.  That lack of experience didn’t seem to matter in the NBA Finals.

@tH: Last, is it true that most big men come into their own during their 3rd seasons? For example, Hilton Armstrong of the Hornets has not shown much improvement over his first 2 campaigns. How do you determine if it's too early to give up on a player?

DB: I am not sure about big men, but players in general do get better in their third season.  When we look at Armstrong, we see that he posted a 0.050 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] his rookie season.  Average WP48 is 0.100 for an NBA player in general, although what Armstrong did is close to average for a rookie.

 In his second season, though, Armstrong’s WP48 fell to -0.094 (yes that is a negative sign).  So Armstrong was way below average.  Going back to your question, I think it is incorrect to say Armstrong "has not shown much improvement". What the numbers show is that Armstrong got much worse. 

 So should the Hornets give up on Armstrong?  I am not sure, but it is important for the coaches to figure out why he played so badly in 2007-08.  If those things can be fixed, then the team should keep him.   If not, it is time to look elsewhere.

 @tH: Thanks for taking the time to talk to us, really appreciate it.

DB: Glad to talk to you.  Fans of the Hornets should be very excited right now.  New Orleans is clearly one of the top teams in the NBA and the 2008-09 season should be fun.

Thanks once again to Dr. Berri, hope you enjoyed the interview as much as I did.

Hilton, Melvin, and the Kiwi are no Zo, LJ, and Parish . Or even Elden Campbell, P.J. Brown, or Derrick Coleman. But how well the trio is used will be just as important as the play of most any individual.

At first glance, it seems that Sean Marks will be the odd man out. He's only played 300 minutes once in an eight year career. He's averaged 66 missed games a season. Hilton and Melvin are much more familiar with Byron Scott's system, and the Hornets will surely observe Hilton more closely in potentially his last year. Still, Coach Scott's proclivity for Ryan Bowen makes you reconsider that assumption.

Offensive Ability

Still, who offers the most in terms of post play and which pair should be on the court together? Offensive Ability One thing all three players have in common is the inability to finish at the rim. Hilton Armstrong's eFG% took a significant plummet (54% to 45%) last season primarily because he didn't take it up strong enough. We saw numerous dunk attempts blocked, and he often couldn't shake off fouls near the rim and finish. Melvin Ely was probably the most egregious lay-up misser on the team. And while I haven't seen Sean Marks play much, his Hot Spots indicate that he took most of his shots from close range, and he's a career 43% eFG% shooter.

Ely does have an advantage offensively in that he draws fouls at a 4.3 FTA/36 min rate, higher than Armstrong (3.6) or the Kiwi (0.9). Throw in his polished back to the basket game, and I think it's clear that Ely is the superlative offensive player.

Defensive Ability

Defensive Ability When Hilton was first drafted, I was most excited about the defender he could turn into. He was in possession of a 6’11," 240 pounds, and the full complement of Jay Bilas "long," "athletic," and "upside" comments. His rookie year, we saw flashes of that potential. But last year, he took a serious step back. The two biggest negatives: fouls per block attempt rose sharply, and he struggled to keep up his footwork with opposing post players. His fouls per 36 (6.4 last year) is at odds with the rest of the non-fouling Hornet defense, while Ely’s defense (4.3) fits in far more. And yet, I’d still peg Hilton as the better defender. Ely simply doesn’t have the length of Armstrong. Hilton’s slender frame makes him more versatile as a defender.

Sean Marks, surprisingly enough, may also be in this conversation. In 19 games, he registered a 5.0 BLK%. It’s probably worth seeing if he can replicate that.

Rebounding

Rebounding Believe it or not, rebounding was not one of the Hornets’ strong suits last year. Remove Tyson Chandler from the equation, and the rest of his teammates seriously underperformed on the boards.

The one aspect HA didn’t drop off in last year was rebounding. His offensive rates (10.2) and defensive rates (16.4) remained solid, and if nothing else, will assure him playing time. Sean Marks brings less offensive rebounding to the table (6.8), but more defensive (18.4). And Ely is somewhere in between at 8.3 and 15.6. Overall, Hilton is the best rebounder (13.2), with Marks second (12.6) and Ely third (11.8). Still, those three values are pretty close. This comes down to which rebounders work well together as opposed to an individual analysis. Do you want a good offensive/defensive look with Marks and Armstrong together? A more safe approach with Ely paired in there? How does having James Posey on the floor impact things? All good questions, and all difficult ones to answer without actually seeing the trio function on the floor.

The Best Pair?

Defensively, the Armstrong-Marks combination intrigues me. Both have block rates which would allow them to be great help defenders. Obviously, help defense is something the overall defense was predicated on last year. DX and TC did a terrific job covering for the small CP3/Pargo backcourt, and I expect James Posey to slide into a similar role this year.

The best offense-defense combination may still be Armstrong-Ely. Even though Sean Marks is the better defensive rebounder empirically, I have a hard time believing he can man up better than Hilton. Marks really doesn’t cover any of Ely’s or Armstrong’s deficiencies on the offensive end either.

As much as I’d like to see the Ceiling Fan Repair Man backed by The Kiwi, it doesn’t make much sense from any angle. Then you also have the chance of another Brandon Bass scenario with Hilton Armstrong. Not likely, but not rule-out-able.

With the acquisition of Sean Marks, the Hornets are unofficially officially set for the season opener. They've carried only 14 guys into the last few openers, a practice they're sure to continue. For one, it allows roster flexibility in-season, and second, virtually every player that signs on as a 15th man will be available later. So, a revised version of the depth chart I posted a couple weeks ago:

Obviously, things can and will shift around. I expect Devin Brown to get some minutes at the point, Posey at the 4, Ely at the 5, etc. How does this depth chart stack up against last year's playoffs depth chart?

According to the CBA, a team can have only 12 active players. Andersen and Butler were the odd men out last spring. My best guess is that Sean Marks joins Butler on the inactive roster to start the year. With that in mind, let's do a quick head-to-head.

Backup Point Guard (Advantage: New Hornets)

I discussed this in more depth (pun alert!) earlier this week. Short story short, I think James is significantly better than Pargo. While last year's Hornets had more depth at the 1 (Paul-Pargo-James), this year's version has the correct guy in the 2nd string role. And Devin Brown should be able to fulfill third point guard duties.

Backup Shooting Guard (Advantage: New Hornets)

Last year, the Hornets' biggest holes were at backup shooting guard and backup center. The reason for the lack of production from the spot is obvious with a glance at the depth chart- the players who manned the spot (Pargo, Wright, and even Wells) were by no means shooting guards. You have a 6'1", 175 dude and a rookie drafted as a SF/PF masquerading as off guards, and you've got problems. Those issues were compounded when Mo-Pete played far and away the fewest minutes among the starters (the other 4 averaged at least 35.2 mpg; Mo played 23).

I think the Devin Brown acquisition will help much more than people anticipate. Because Byron Scott liked to play Pargo and CP at the same time, Chris Paul was often left to guard talented off guards (Rip Hamilton, Ben Gordon, and even Manu Ginobili were all checked by Paul last year). Devin Brown's size alone will help Paul out tremendously, defensively. Brown may bring little to the table offensively, but the defensive upgrade at the back-up 2 can't be emphasized enough.

Backup Small Forward (Advantage: New Hornets)

Julian Wright is a year older and James Posey replaces Bonzi Wells. Enough said.

Backup Power Forward (Advantage: Tie)

I'm pretty sure Ryan Bowen beats out Sean Marks on the active roster; Byron Scott can't get enough of his hustle. Honestly, I'd rather have the 6'10", 250 lb. Marks on the bench instead of Bowen, but it's a tough decision. But either way, nothing really changes from last year. David West will probably still have to play the entire first quarter and first few minutes of the second quarter.

Backup Center (Advantage: Tie)

With Marks relegated to IR duty, we're left with the fantastic duo of Batman and Robin, Tyson and Hilton. Just as with the comic books, you bow down to the greatness of Batman and groan every time you see Robin.

Overall

The Hornets went into the off-season looking to bolster the front-court, first and foremost. Did it happen? No. Yeah, I know Posey can slide over to the 4 and all that. But the bottom line is we went into the summer hoping to find a replacement for Ely or Armstrong, and it didn't happen. While I think the Devin Brown signing is underrated, while I think letting Pargo walk was an awesome move, and while I love that we snatched James Posey from the defending champions, the lack of upgrade at F/C just doesn't seem right.

I guess the title of this post- "Did we get better?"- isn't asking the right question. Rather: Did we get better at the right spots?  Is it smarter to carry 3 point guards or 3 centers? Is a good backup power forward more valuable than a good backup point guard? How about a good backup center? Wouldn't it change from year to year, based on the opponents you face? And what exactly is "good" anyway, considering we can't even measure an entire half of the game- defense- very effectively?

I don't know. On paper, this team did get better. But until next June, we won't know the answer to the biggest question of all: can an NBA champion have Hilton Armstrong and Melvin Ely in its frontcourt?

J.R. Smith back to the Hornets? Hoopsworld reported it first. I dismissed it myself before I talked to someone who confirmed it. An excerpt of HW's article:

[J.R.'s] turnaround has reportedly caught the attention of the Smith's former team, the New Orleans Hornets, although they already acquired reserve swingman James Posey this summer. Oklahoma City could also be in the mix for Smith, but the Nuggets still have a hold on his rights.

I know, I know. Nobody likes J.R. But take a step back before letting the hate flow forth. The man has improved his 3P% and eFG% substantially for three straight years. That's hard work and nothing else, something we didn't see during his New Orleans years. Smith at 2/3, Wright at 3, and Posey at 3/4? That'd be a terrific look for our bench. By the way, if it happens, it'll be a S&T (probably M. James and a '10 first rounder).

Sort of Hornets-related, if you squint and turn your head sideways: Knicks trade Renaldo Balkman.

The Denver Nuggets have acquired forward Renaldo Balkman from the New York Knicks in exchange for guard Taurean Green, forward Bobby Jones and a second-round draft pick in 2010.

The Knicks are expected to waive Green and Jones at a savings of about $2 million. Both players have non-guaranteed contracts.

The thing I'm looking at is Bobby Jones. He was purported to be a defensive stopper of Bruce Bowen's caliber when he was drafted. A smart move might be signing him at the minimum to fill out the roster. 3436384279

A Boston Celtic fan gives his take on James Posey's departure to the Hornets. He finds himself wondering why Posey hasn't been vilified like other Boston sports heroes that bolted for big money (Johnny Damon):

It's taken me thirty years to realize this, but sometimes a player can leave a team and there are no bad guys.

Would I have liked to see James Posey on the 2008-09 Celtics? Absolutely. But I'm happy for him that he was able to get the contract he wanted.

I'm happy that he'll get to play with a great player like CP3. I'm even happy for the city of New Orleans, who just got themselves one heck of a clutch basketball player.

Julian Wright and Hilton Armstrong's Vegas summer league play made Byron Scott... happy? Yes, indeed. The Times-Pic reports. Also, in that article Jeff Bower talks about Bobby Brown:

"Bobby did a real good job throughout the whole league, and obviously all the other teams took notice," Bower said. "He was one of the biggest surprises throughout the summer league with his play. We had a chance to measure him against the other notable rookies, which was a good measuring stick for him. We were real happy he was able to come in there and perform well."

Still wish we could've nabbed him.

This link session started with one flashy former Hornet SG/SF, so it's only right it ends with another (albeit not as flashy). Devin Brown could end up back in New Orleans according to Hoopsworld:

Among the teams showing interest in former Cavs guard Devin Brown are Dallas, New Orleans, Denver and Atlanta. To a lesser extent, both Miami and Washington have made contact with Brown's representatives.

I enjoyed Devin's last stop in New Orleans- when he averaged career highs in points, rebounds, assists, and steals- and wouldn't mind him back.

[UPDATE: by atthehive]: I forgot to mention that Denver signed swingman Dahntay Jones to a contract last week. Here's one opinion of why Jones makes J.R. expendable in Denver.

Bobby Brown's been lighting up the summer league. (Note: Let it be known that I was/am the first official member of the Bobby Brown bandwagon). And now, he may end up getting an NBA or overseas gig for the upcoming season. Marc Stein of ESPN has more details:

Though he's not a pure point and frequently has to be reminded by coaches to be more vocal, Brown has become an NBA player. And that's according to numerous expert witnesses in Vegas as opposed to a shameless rooter like me...

...Consider, for example, that my Maccabi Tel-Aviv is suddenly trying to lure Brown to Israel as a marquee foreign signing. That's a big step up from where Brown was last season, helping Germany's Alba Berlin win the Bundesliga title.

But Brown's also getting enough NBA interest now to conceivably land the guaranteed deal that would enable him to stay home. New Orleans wants to bring him to training camp and had Chris Paul call Brown to invite him to compete for minutes as CP3's backup. I'm hearing that the Warriors like him just as much, if not more, which must be why Nelson could be spotted at most of Brown's games.

Come on, Jeff Bower/George Shinn! You're gonna be paying the luxury next year unless you cut some salary. Here's a fantastic opportunity staring you right in the face- let Pargo walk and let Brown be the 3rd string point. Please. Please. Please.

Speaking of Brown, HoopsWorld's Bill Ingram has a video interview with him.

And speaking of video interviews with Bill Ingram, here's one of Hilton Armstrong.

Back to the same Stein article: he also chimes in on the James Posey deal:

...[D]on't look for me to join the chorus of concern that the Hornets overextended themselves to sign the 31-year-old to a four-year deal worth about $25 million. I love the move.

I can't deny that I was not-so-secretly expecting owner George Shinn to make his checkbook hard to find after the Hornets re-signed Paul to a max contract extension earlier this month. But showing an immediate willingness to spend some more to get Posey as the lead acquisition to address their leadership and depth shortcomings suggests that Shinn isn't satisfied with one breakthrough season.

And one last tidbit from Stein:

In New Orleans, though, it's hard to top Byron Scott's ambition. The NBA's reigning Coach of the Year shared that he hopes to eventually develop young (and long) swingman Julian Wright into a backup for Paul at the point. Pretty interesting if it actually happens someday.

Ha ha ha.

Charley Rosen's Q&A piece for FOX Sports is pretty interesting. He starts with some Posey (mostly Celtics related) stuff before delving into the nuances of the following question:

After watching Tyson Chandler have so much success in slapping the ball back to Chris Paul, this seems like a highly effective maneuver. What do you think? Also, if he does tip the ball to a teammate, does Chandler get credit for a rebound?

NBA players will take on professional bowlers in October in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Hmm. NBA players who like to bowl, hailing from Winston-Salem... oh yeah, that Chris guy. The Mount Airy News explains:

The Professional Bowlers Association (PBA) and Paul's CP3 Foundation announced today the creation of the inaugural Chris Paul PBA Celebrity Invitational presented by the brands of Ebonite International which will be televised on ESPN.

The Invitational will take place at the AMF Major League Lanes in Winston-Salem on Sept. 20 taped for broadcast on ESPN, airing on Oct. 19...

“I am thrilled to have a PBA event be a major part of my charity weekend and bring some of the best bowlers in the world to Winston-Salem,” said Paul. “I always tell people that I am a bowler first and a basketball player second, so I know this event will be an ultimate test of my bowling skills.”

The Hornets Report Boards have the low-down on next year's new jerseys. As bonitapplebum87 says:

If I could post the pics I would guys but I don't wanna get in trouble. Anyway, my friend Soso on the first page gave you an accurate description except it should be a little more like this:

Home:
White with creole blue and purple pinstripes going through the jersey. Name and number is in creole blue.

Away:
Creole blue with purple and gold pinstripes going through the jersey. Name and number is in gold.

*Both jerseys have New Orleans across the chest. Unless there are last minute changes I won't be aware of, there will be no NOLA on the jersey. However, there is a very cool new logo with NOLA coming out of a trumpet...I thought it was pretty dope.

I haven't seen the actual jersey, just pics.

Thanks for the neat info!

Moving on to the big Posey signing and various internet reactions- Hoops World tracked down Julian Wright and got his thoughts on the signing:

"I think he's going to be a great add," Julian Wright told HOOPSWORLD at the Las Vegas Summer League. "He obviously has a lot of playoff experience, a lot of experience period, and that's what the Hornets have been looking for."

Posey joins the Hornets bench as Wright is working to earn more minutes as a role player. However Wright sees his new teammate as a contributor, not competition to his game. Posey is an outside shooting, perimeter defender whereas Wright has been asked by Bower and Scott to become a more aggressive offensive playmaker.

Indeed. The more I think about it, the more I realize how well the two complement each other. In some ways, Posey is an "old" JuJu, but in many other ways, they're very different players.

Check out this comments section on the Lakers' blog Forum Blue and Gold. The general consensus among L.A. fans is that the Posey signing is a great fit for the Hornets and that New Orleans and the Lakeshow will be duking it out for a Finals appearance next year. As reader and Laker fan Darius says:

I’m sorry to say this, but the Hornets are stacked. They have scorers at almost every position, they have interior and perimeter defenders, they have post offense, and they have Chris Paul and that deadly high P&R. Can you imagine a crunch time line up of Paul, Posey, Peja, West, and Chandler? Who do you leave to stop penetration? I understand that Peja and Paul aren’t the best defenders (understatement, I know) but West is decent and Posey/Chandler are pretty strong for their positions. I’m not shaking in my boots or anything, but those guys are (mostly) young, hungry players that just got a ton of experience in a brutal conference and have a lot of confidence based off of last season.

Good to see that our opponents respect the move.

FOX Sports' Mike Kahn discusses the "Horry aura" surrounding James Posey and ponders whether the deal was worth it. In the end, he comes to this conclusion:

All things being equal, Posey will be a factor for the Hornets because of his experience and ability to maximize his impact in a limited amount of minutes... But he won't be the difference. So the rest of the Hornets better had better grow up over the next two seasons, or they'll regret those third and fourth years of the contract sooner than later.

I couldn't have put it better myself.

FOX, hate as I must your news station, your sports analysis is actually kind of good.

Meanwhile, if you're wondering why SI has been slipping in popularity recently, look no further.

After taking on and losing to the Grizzlies, the Baby Hornets (Bats? Yes, Bats it is) faced off against the Kittens of Charlotte. My game notes:

• In terms of NBA-ready talent, I thought this game would be far more boring than the Grizzlies one. Instead, it was a lot easier/more fun to watch.
• The feed was surprisingly better than the Grizzlies feed. In fact, at some points it was basically equivalent in clarity to the regular season League Pass feeds. So if you were scared away by the terrible quality on Friday, fear no more!
• Charlotte's three lottery picks- D.J. Augustin, Kyle Weaver, and Alexis Ajinca- all started for the 'Cats. I learned that Ajinca's first name is pronounced Alexee... so if you ever meet him, you know what to say.
• Hilton Armstrong struggled mightily at setting picks. That's something he was bad at during the season too- it looks like he gets scared of contact as the opposing player rams into him. That's fine if you're setting a pick to clear Baron Davis or Chauncey Billups. But shying away from screening 5'11" D.J. Augustin?
  
• Having said that, Augustin certainly packs a punch for his size. He flat out leveled the Hornets' Brandon Bowman in the third on a drive to the hoop.
• Throughout the game, there was a guy who kept yelling things at the top of his lungs. Like "OH MY GOODNESS!!!!", "TERRIBLE!!!!" and "WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU DOING!!!!!!!" And the dude had a sidekick who would make a less charged remark immediately after, stuff like "you gotta work at both ends." I couldn't tell if they were Charlotte coaches or just Charlotte fans.
• The Charlotte coach was wearing shorts and kept getting up and sitting down. Would've been funnier if it was Larry Brown.
  
• ticktock6 mentioned on HornetsHype that most of the arena music was 90's rap in Game One. This time, it was mostly 90's rock/hip-hop. So they stopped poisoning our eyes (with those horrible feeds) in favor of poisoning our ears. Terrific.
• D.J. Augustin sure looked good. He didn't have too many assists, but his passes were crisp and direct. I didn't like the Augustin pick at #9, but he could sure make me change my mind. He also has great handles. From what I saw, his biggest weakness is running the pick and roll; he just couldn't make the right read often enough. Obviously, that's something that can be easily coached.
  
• Wright's and Armstrong's minutes were definitely toned down today. JuJu hardly played in the 3rd, while (I may be wrong on this) Armstrong didn't play at all in the 3rd period. Not sure as to the reasons behind this.
  
• The game went into a mad fast-break frenzy at the start of the 4th that included a huge wind-up dunk from Jemareo Davidson and an alley-oop throwdown from the Bats' Derrick Byars.
  
• A huge decrease in fouls from the first game.
  
• Alexis Ajinca- Consider me impressed. Ajinca was one of the guys I wanted the Hornets to draft with the 27th pick. AA moves extremely well for a 7 footer, has a great free throw stroke, and uses his long arms well on defense. His biggest issue would probably be banging inside; his frame isn't filled out. Still, I think Charlotte got a steal in him.
  
• Adam Haluska- An afternoon to forget. Not only did he have a terrible day shooting, he had a couple of turnovers and a bone-headed foul on a 3 pointer in a crucial stretch of the 4th quarter.
  
• Bobby Brown (Bats)- He didn't shoot well, but I liked his aggressiveness. He went to the line a ton and attacked the rim real well. Some have mentioned that Brown has an outside chance of getting a training camp invite, and today he justified that. He spent most of the game going one-on-one with Augustin, including spewing some audible trash talk at the soft-spoken D.J. The 6'2" guard from Oregon has some legit talent.
• This game got crazy down the stretch. Everybody was screaming, the players were going wild... and Hilton Armstrong won it with a clutch free throw line jumper and then a slam dunk (by the way, JuJu assisted both). Great to see Hilton step it up down the stretch; he finished with 14 points on 4-8 shooting. JuJu and Hilton combined for 8 of the Bats' last 10.
  

We won! We won! The Bats picked up their second summer league win in 4 years at the expense of the Kittens. The contest got about as intense as a summer league game is ever going to get.

I mentioned in my notes that there were less foul calls... I just checked the box score and apparently there were actually 57 fouls, or 1 more than yesterday. Ha ha. Anyways, that's it for today. The Bats take on the Baby Spurs (The Childrens' Size Boots?) on Tuesday and then the Young Clippers (not even gonna try) on Thursday, both of which I'll probably miss.

The Hornets got summer league action started today versus the Memphis Grizzlies. I caught NBA.com's (highly grainy) footage of the game. Some assorted thoughts:

• I made a note to watch Hilton closely. Byron Scott apparently told him that with his talent, he should "dominate the summer league."
• Pretty large crowd. All the sideline rows I could see (10 or so) looked full.
• Most of that, I'm sure, had to do with the presence of one Ovington J'Anthony Mayo. Other notable Grizzlies: Mike Conley Jr., and Hornets' 27th pick Darrell Arthur.
• For the Hornets, Adam Haluska and Julian Wright were the two other notables.
• Very slow start for New Orleans, with the Grizzlies taking an early 11-1 lead. Adam Haluska had quite a few open looks that he passed up. He did convert a nice three-point play. 
• These dudes looked downright scared to shoot threes. If only some team had thought to invite Antoine Walker to summer league.
• Some of the guys were just horrible. The Hornets #5 (haven't looked him up yet) dribbled off his foot and lost the ball out of bounds because of a little ball pressure from Mayo. Turnovers all over the place in general.
  
• One of the very cool things about summer league- you can hear the players talking to each other. So you can "see" plays developing before they happen, etc.
• Hilton Armstrong was all over the place, snatching boards, pushing off guys on the offensive glass, contesting shots. The Hornets even used him as a "point center" for one stretch, giving him the ball top of the key. Still, there was excessive, unfocused motion throughout. A moving screen, a loose ball foul, losing the ball on a drive. You could tell through video that Armstrong was much better than any of the other Vegas players. It's hard to tell that from the stat-sheet though. Simply put, his skill/effort didn't translate into great numbers.
  
• I should probably mention that the refs avoided foul calls like the plague. Hilton got smashed on at least 5 FGA with no call. So his numbers would have been better in "real life."
• A funny sequence in the 2nd quarter: O.J. Mayo appointed himself the official full-court press guy. He gave three different Hornet ball-handlers some problems bringing it up. Next play, JuJu gets a defensive board, starts up court. Mayo sprints over from half-court to pressure him. If he's successfully pressed three guards, what's a forward, right? Wright jukes, crosses left, goes behind the back right, leaving O.J. standing flat-footed at half court.
• Fouls! These Vegas Leaguers hack like crazy! Hilton Armstrong may have finished with 9 fouls, but he was one of the more mild-mannered at the beginning. As he kept getting hacked with no result, he turned up the juice on the other end.
  
• Darrell Arthur "led" Memphis with 9 fouls. There were a total of 56 foul calls. And that's with a ton of missed and no calls.
  
• The #5 that I bashed earlier hit a couple of threes with pretty smooth-looking release. Name still unknown however.
• Darrell Arthur- don't make too much of his 18 points. Most were on really easy buckets, near the hoop, or off good assists. Didn't see much that makes me regret our trade with Portland.
• OJ Mayo- I wasn't his biggest fan in college. I thought he was overhyped for sure. If anything, though, the dude is as smooth as they come. Everything he does happens in one fluid motion. Just poking around the internet, I've seen a couple sites raving about his slam on Hilton. Unfortunately (fortunately?) my internet died for a few minutes and I missed the dunk.
  
• And lastly, Julian Wright- if it's any consolation, it didn't seem like JuJu had 11 turnovers or 13 missed shots. Some of that has to be due to the fact that I didn't know who 80% of the players were 90% of the time. But he was definitely trying to be flashier than normal with no-looks, behind-the-backs, wrap-arounds, etc. For example, on the play I mentioned earlier (where he crossed Mayo), he finished by driving to the hoop. He had a point blank look at the rim. Instead of taking the layup, he spun, and tossed a no-look over the shoulder pass to the other team.
  

Make sure to check out mW's Game 1 recap at HornetsHype. It's, uh, slightly more insightful/extremely less rambling than this one. He even figured out who #5 is!

Here's a real fun stat to end things: guess how many victories the Hornets have in summer league play in their last 16 games (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008)?

One! That's right. We're 1-15 since '05. 2005 we went 0-5, 2006 1-4, 2007 0-5, and we're 0-1 this year. I'm kind of hoping we go 0-5 again just to keep up the streak..

Let's start off with Jarvis Hayes. Rumored to be one of the Hornets' top targets for the offseason, the New Jersey Nets snapped him up yesterday. Yahoo! Sports has the report:

Hayes met with New Jersey management in Orlando, Fla., on Thursday and left confident that he’ll sign for the bi-annual exception that would pay him $4 million over two seasons. Once the San Antonio Spurs agreed to terms with Roger Mason Jr., on Wednesday, the Nets became a logical destination for Hayes, who is leaving the Detroit Pistons.

I feel kind of stupid for not mentioning the bi-annual exception. Still, Hayes doesn't really do anything for me, and I don't mind that we didn't get him.

James Posey, our other big target, is supposedly going to make his decision today or tomorrow. As reported by the Cleveland Plain Dealer:

Free agent forward James Posey of Twinsburg is likely to sign a multi-year deal in "a day or two," agent Mark Bartelstein said Wednesday evening.

Asked if the Cavaliers were still in the mix, Bartelstein said, "We're still talking."

I'm disappointed by how infrequently the Hornets are mentioned in these Posey reports. The main players seem to be the Celtics and Cavs, with New Orleans thrown in as an afterthought. Interestingly enough, I've seen a couple reports about both Boston and Cleveland being unwilling to offer the full mid-level. In fact, Boston's initial reported offer was 3 years/12 million, significantly lower than the almost $6 mil. midlevel. Another nugget from that same article:

The Cleveland native is also drawing interest from the Cavaliers, Washington, New Orleans, Detroit, and the Lakers, but no one seems willing to offer the full mid-level exception ($5.5 million).

Boston, fine, they're giving out significant money to the Big 3. Washington can't give the midlevel without exceeding the luxury. Ditto for Los Angeles. Cleveland's already well over the luxury tax, so they won't offer the full midlevel either. Detroit probably doesn't value Posey's D as much, given their current roster. Wouldn't that make New Orleans the best combination financially, and competitively? It makes you question how much the Hornets actually want Posey.

Here's a curveball from left field. Apparently, the Hornets may be taken to court in the near future. Forbes has the details, and the clever title 'Hornets lose in 'OT'.'

Former Hornets employees who claim they were coerced into working overtime without being paid for it or were unfairly denied commissions may bring the NBA team to trial, a federal judge ruled Thursday.

There are 16 plaintiffs in the case - all former team employees whose duties entailed selling and processing tickets.

Julian Wright, Hilton Armstrong, and Adam Haluska will all be playing summer league ball this offseason. The Times-Pic has more:

"I'm trying to get back into the flow of playing 5-on-5," Wright said. "I worked out a lot since mid-June to make sure that I was in tip-top shape. When I come to training camp, I want to be in better shape than last season."

Armstrong also needs to show improvement, Scott said. Since his rookie season in 2006-07, Armstrong has struggled to be a consistent performer.

"Hilton has to be very assertive out there every single game," Scott said. "He can't have the lulls like he had during the season. I told him that with his talent, he should be able to dominate in summer league."

I wish they had more on Haluska. So far I've read a wide range of reports on him- some saying New Orleans expects him to fill the void at back-up wing next year and others saying he won't make the full-time roster.

The Hornets weren't too deep in the frontcourt, but they definitely had good size in their centers. A quick game-by-game look at how Tyson Chandler and Hilton Armstrong did this year using John Hollinger's Game Score (essentially an individual game version of PER). Included on top are Chandler and Armstrong's best game, worst game, average Game Score, and standard deviation. The yellow line is a 5-game moving average to give you a feel for how segments of the player's season went. As always, click the graphs for larger images.

Best Game: January 4th @ Golden State. TC went off for a huge 20-20 (22 and 22 to be precise) and missed just two field goals as the Hornets defeated the Warriors by 12. Andris Biedrins and the rest of the starved-for-size Dubs stood no chance against the rampaging Chandler. He fueled the first half of an impressive sweep of a road back-to-back versus the Dubs and Suns. 

Trends: Chandler recovered nicely from an early season slump and probably played his best basketball in the month leading up to the All Star break. The second half saw him slump a little bit, but he picked up his play for the stretch run.

Best Game: February 6th @ Phoenix. While this game wasn't statistically his best, it was my favorite Hilt game of the year. He showed some flashes, knocking down a mid-range jumper off glass and throwing down a big dunk and one. Oh, and he yelled after the dunk. He finished that game with 6 and 7 and followed it up with a season high 11 his next time out.

Trends: Hilton's graphs are marked by prolonged slumps that just don't seem to end very quickly. Many Hornets fans astutely remarked that Hilton's biggest problem is confidence, and these trends confirm that. Seems like he just gets down on himself and can't break out of slumps (or get the minutes needed to do so). Interesting little detail: Armstrong's best game (9.2) is more than 2 points lower than Tyson's average (11.9). That has to change if Armstrong is going to be the back-up center of the future.

Well, the end of the How'd He Do series is imminent. All the major players are in the books, with only Ryan Bowen, Rasual Butler, Chris Andersen, and Mike James left to review. So this is probably a good time to stop and check out what's gone down thus far. Thanks to all of you that voted, you've helped create the first ever batch of Hornet approval ratings!

• Melvin Ely (41%)
• Morris Peterson (67%)
• David West (95%)
• Bonzi Wells (58%)
• Peja Stojakovic (91%)
• Jannero Pargo (70%)
• Hilton Armstrong (34%)
• Tyson Chandler (97%)
• Julian Wright
• Chris Paul (100%)
  

As I mentioned in some of the comments, I removed '1' ratings for a few players. Seriously, Peja did not have a 1 season. Neither did David West or Tyson Chandler. Get over New Orleans' success, bitter fans of other teams.

The top 3 were CP (duh), TC, and DX in that order. Peja was 4th, and General Pargo overtook Mo-Pete for the 5th spot. Bonzi probably caused the most division. Some people (myself) had him high, while others pegged him as a 1. Ely and Armstrong didn't score well, but hopefully they will both rebound excellently. Finally, I'm surprised that Tyson finished higher than DX. Interesting.

The How'd He Do is the first part of @tH's player review series for the summer. Next up are some funky graphs and a best game thingamabob (huh, the spell check recognizes this??). The draft can't come soon enough...