Changes Afoot?
To say the Hornets have stumbled out of the gates is something of an understatement. We've been handled by the Hawks, Lakers, and Rockets thus far. It's a long season, and things will surely start to even out a little as we get into December and January. That said, this team could use a little shake up. Some thoughts on our problems and some potential solutions:
Peja Stojakovic
He's one of the game's best pure shooters, nobody denies that. His biggest challenge is facing off against physical opponents. We've seen tough defenders throw him off time and time again- Bruce Bowen blasted him to smithereens in the playoffs last year, and Ron Artest did it again on Saturday. All that leads me to postulate: why not start James Posey against the more physical perimeter defenders?
1 comment
| 0 recs
|
Devin Brown: On the Ball or Off?
Backup point guard has me feeling pretty apprehensive with training camp approaching. We don't know what kind of production we'll see from the position, let alone who will be responsible for that production. But who should get most of the minutes there? That's a question we can answer.
I've supported Mike James multiple times in the past. If nothing else, his NBA career suggests he will be an improvement over Jannero Pargo.
Unfortunately, Byron Scott doesn't have two cut and dry choices. This isn't Mike James vs. Devin Brown for the back-up role, because one of the team's biggest holes lies at the back-up shooting guard position. I seriously doubt Posey gets many minutes at the 2, due to our inadequacies in the front court. Julian Wright could get some time, but because of his frame and skill set, Byron Scott played him mostly at the 3 last year.
How about Rasual Butler? Well, Butler was in the doghouse all season. Coach Scott mentioned that Rasual could challenge for the backup role. Butler promptly flashed a loaded gun in front of a nightclub. Yeah. Randomly brandishing a deadly weapon is not a good way to get into a coach's good graces. Nor is shooting 35% from the field.
So the answer to the James or Brown question will almost entirely reflect the answer to another question: should Devin Brown play the 1 or the 2? Time to take a walk down Memory Lane.
D. Brown came out of the University of Texas (SA), known as a prolific scorer. He began his pro career in the CBA, before moving on to the NBDL. At both locations, he was a scoring machine, earning 2002 CBA ROY honors and 2003 NBDL ROY and MVP honors. He finally got some NBA burn, splitting time with Denver, San Antonio, and Utah over 5 seasons. Then, in '06, he came to New Orleans before departing for Cleveland last year.
Take a look at Brown's career numbers, and you won't find much progression one way or another. In so many respects, he's been the same player since he entered the league. But dig a little bit deeper and two seasons stand out from the rest: '03-'04 under Gregg Popovich and '06-'07 under Byron Scott. What sets them apart? He played approximately 15% of his total minutes at the point in each of those seasons, the only two times in his career that he got significant minutes there.
What's even more interesting is the remarkable dichotomy between the two years. As a point guard under Popovich ('04), Brown posted a horrid 6.1 PER. He didn't get too much overall playing time that year, but he logged 100 minutes at the point, a figure I consider statistically significant. Then as a point guard under Scott ('07), he posted a PER of 17.7. If you keep in mind that his overall PER's were similar in these two years (13 vs. 14), this is a substantial difference. What did Byron Scott know that Popovich did not?
The answer is method of usage. As a point guard in '04, Brown averaged 19.7 FGA per 48 minutes, significantly higher than the 14.5 he averaged as off guard. As a point guard in '07, Brown averaged 15.7 FGA/48 as opposed to 15.4 FGA/48 at the off guard. In sum, Popovich tried to use Devin Brown's biggest skill- scoring- at the point guard position. Brown may have brought the ball up, and even set up plays, but he still functioned as a shooting guard in the offense. I know assist numbers aren't good indications of passing, but Brown's AST/48 at the point in '07 (7.5) so dwarf his '04 AST/48 (2.6), that I can't help but infer a significantly more shoot-first attitude preached by Popovich.
I suppose the conclusion is this: If Brown is going to bring the ball up, let him function as more of a "pure point guard," even though he's more skilled at scoring than passing. Yes, it seems contradictory. But Byron Scott showed he understood this two years ago, and I hope he has a good memory.
2 comments | 0 recs
So... Did We Get Better?
With the acquisition of Sean Marks, the Hornets are unofficially officially set for the season opener. They've carried only 14 guys into the last few openers, a practice they're sure to continue. For one, it allows roster flexibility in-season, and second, virtually every player that signs on as a 15th man will be available later. So, a revised version of the depth chart I posted a couple weeks ago:
| PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
| Chris Paul | Morris Peterson | Peja Stojakovic | David West | Tyson Chandler |
| Mike James | Devin Brown |
James Posey | Melvin Ely | Hilton Armstrong |
| Rasual Butler | Julian Wright | Ryan Bowen |
Sean Marks |
Obviously, things can and will shift around. I expect Devin Brown to get some minutes at the point, Posey at the 4, Ely at the 5, etc. How does this depth chart stack up against last year's playoffs depth chart?
| PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
| Chris Paul | Morris Peterson | Peja Stojakovic | David West | Tyson Chandler |
| Jannero Pargo |
Rasual Butler | Bonzi Wells |
Melvin Ely | Hilton Armstrong |
| Mike James | Julian Wright | Ryan Bowen | Chris Andersen |
According to the CBA, a team can have only 12 active players. Andersen and Butler were the odd men out last spring. My best guess is that Sean Marks joins Butler on the inactive roster to start the year. With that in mind, let's do a quick head-to-head.
Backup Point Guard (Advantage: New Hornets)
I discussed this in more depth (pun alert!) earlier this week. Short story short, I think James is significantly better than Pargo. While last year's Hornets had more depth at the 1 (Paul-Pargo-James), this year's version has the correct guy in the 2nd string role. And Devin Brown should be able to fulfill third point guard duties.
Backup Shooting Guard (Advantage: New Hornets)
Last year, the Hornets' biggest holes were at backup shooting guard and backup center. The reason for the lack of production from the spot is obvious with a glance at the depth chart- the players who manned the spot (Pargo, Wright, and even Wells) were by no means shooting guards. You have a 6'1", 175 dude and a rookie drafted as a SF/PF masquerading as off guards, and you've got problems. Those issues were compounded when Mo-Pete played far and away the fewest minutes among the starters (the other 4 averaged at least 35.2 mpg; Mo played 23).
I think the Devin Brown acquisition will help much more than people anticipate. Because Byron Scott liked to play Pargo and CP at the same time, Chris Paul was often left to guard talented off guards (Rip Hamilton, Ben Gordon, and even Manu Ginobili were all checked by Paul last year). Devin Brown's size alone will help Paul out tremendously, defensively. Brown may bring little to the table offensively, but the defensive upgrade at the back-up 2 can't be emphasized enough.
Backup Small Forward (Advantage: New Hornets)
Julian Wright is a year older and James Posey replaces Bonzi Wells. Enough said.
Backup Power Forward (Advantage: Tie)
I'm pretty sure Ryan Bowen beats out Sean Marks on the active roster; Byron Scott can't get enough of his hustle. Honestly, I'd rather have the 6'10", 250 lb. Marks on the bench instead of Bowen, but it's a tough decision. But either way, nothing really changes from last year. David West will probably still have to play the entire first quarter and first few minutes of the second quarter.
Backup Center (Advantage: Tie)
With Marks relegated to IR duty, we're left with the fantastic duo of Batman and Robin, Tyson and Hilton. Just as with the comic books, you bow down to the greatness of Batman and groan every time you see Robin.
Overall
The Hornets went into the off-season looking to bolster the front-court, first and foremost. Did it happen? No. Yeah, I know Posey can slide over to the 4 and all that. But the bottom line is we went into the summer hoping to find a replacement for Ely or Armstrong, and it didn't happen. While I think the Devin Brown signing is underrated, while I think letting Pargo walk was an awesome move, and while I love that we snatched James Posey from the defending champions, the lack of upgrade at F/C just doesn't seem right.
I guess the title of this post- "Did we get better?"- isn't asking the right question. Rather: Did we get better at the right spots? Is it smarter to carry 3 point guards or 3 centers? Is a good backup power forward more valuable than a good backup point guard? How about a good backup center? Wouldn't it change from year to year, based on the opponents you face? And what exactly is "good" anyway, considering we can't even measure an entire half of the game- defense- very effectively?
I don't know. On paper, this team did get better. But until next June, we won't know the answer to the biggest question of all: can an NBA champion have Hilton Armstrong and Melvin Ely in its frontcourt?
1 comment | 0 recs
Hornets on the Internets: The Return of J.R. Smith? Edition
J.R. Smith back to the Hornets? Hoopsworld reported it first. I dismissed it myself before I talked to someone who confirmed it. An excerpt of HW's article:
[J.R.'s] turnaround has reportedly caught the attention of the Smith's former team, the New Orleans Hornets, although they already acquired reserve swingman James Posey this summer. Oklahoma City could also be in the mix for Smith, but the Nuggets still have a hold on his rights.
I know, I know. Nobody likes J.R. But take a step back before letting the hate flow forth. The man has improved his 3P% and eFG% substantially for three straight years. That's hard work and nothing else, something we didn't see during his New Orleans years. Smith at 2/3, Wright at 3, and Posey at 3/4? That'd be a terrific look for our bench. By the way, if it happens, it'll be a S&T (probably M. James and a '10 first rounder).
Sort of Hornets-related, if you squint and turn your head sideways: Knicks trade Renaldo Balkman.
The Denver Nuggets have acquired forward Renaldo Balkman from the New York Knicks in exchange for guard Taurean Green, forward Bobby Jones and a second-round draft pick in 2010.
The Knicks are expected to waive Green and Jones at a savings of about $2 million. Both players have non-guaranteed contracts.
The thing I'm looking at is Bobby Jones. He was purported to be a defensive stopper of Bruce Bowen's caliber when he was drafted. A smart move might be signing him at the minimum to fill out the roster. 3436384279
A Boston Celtic fan gives his take on James Posey's departure to the Hornets. He finds himself wondering why Posey hasn't been vilified like other Boston sports heroes that bolted for big money (Johnny Damon):
It's taken me thirty years to realize this, but sometimes a player can leave a team and there are no bad guys.
Would I have liked to see James Posey on the 2008-09 Celtics? Absolutely. But I'm happy for him that he was able to get the contract he wanted.
I'm happy that he'll get to play with a great player like CP3. I'm even happy for the city of New Orleans, who just got themselves one heck of a clutch basketball player.
Julian Wright and Hilton Armstrong's Vegas summer league play made Byron Scott... happy? Yes, indeed. The Times-Pic reports. Also, in that article Jeff Bower talks about Bobby Brown:
"Bobby did a real good job throughout the whole league, and obviously all the other teams took notice," Bower said. "He was one of the biggest surprises throughout the summer league with his play. We had a chance to measure him against the other notable rookies, which was a good measuring stick for him. We were real happy he was able to come in there and perform well."
Still wish we could've nabbed him.
This link session started with one flashy former Hornet SG/SF, so it's only right it ends with another (albeit not as flashy). Devin Brown could end up back in New Orleans according to Hoopsworld:
Among the teams showing interest in former Cavs guard Devin Brown are Dallas, New Orleans, Denver and Atlanta. To a lesser extent, both Miami and Washington have made contact with Brown's representatives.
I enjoyed Devin's last stop in New Orleans- when he averaged career highs in points, rebounds, assists, and steals- and wouldn't mind him back.
[UPDATE: by atthehive]: I forgot to mention that Denver signed swingman Dahntay Jones to a contract last week. Here's one opinion of why Jones makes J.R. expendable in Denver.
9 comments | 0 recs






