At The Hive - All Posts

At the Hive Approval Ratings: Al-Farouq Aminu

2013-05-24T20:45:20Z

Last off-season, Al-Farouq Aminu was given the chance to seize the starting shooting forward slot in the Hornets lineup. How well did he perform according to expectation?

Positives: A 26.2% defensive rebound rate set the bar for shooting forwards in the NBA. Among all forwards, including players like Kevin Love, Kevin Garnett and David Lee, he had the 26th highest rate since the turn of the millennium! He improved his shot selection by taking roughly 25% more of his shots at the rim, and in turn, enjoyed a jump in his field goal percentage (41.1% -> 47.5%) and offensive efficiency differential. Lastly, for fans of advanced stats, compared to the season prior, Aminu's WP48 rose by .109 and he added 5.2 wins produced.

Negatives: Aminu remains a terrible jumpshooter, 32.3% on 2's outside the rim area and 21.1% from behind the arc. He has one of the worst turnover ratio's in the league for shooting forwards, mainly due to the fact he'd rather dribble into traffic or attempt a difficult pass rather than shoot the jumper.

My Grade (1 to 5): 4.

Explanation: Despite the occasional playing time hiccups, Aminu emerged as one of the Hornets most important players. His best skill, rebounding, became dominant and meshed exceeding well on a team with a below average defensive rebounding center. Further, on a team loaded with jumpshooting bigs, Aminu's ability to cut into lanes and play above the rim proved necessary. His defense was capable, but at times, game changing. Lastly, it cannot be forgotten, he was just 22 years of age and still learning the nuances at SF, although his skillset screams PF.

Poll

How well did Al-Farouq Aminu fulfill his role in 2012-13?

Friday Links

2013-05-24T16:52:38Z

Per John Reid, the Pelicans won't be working out any possible draft prospects until June. The people that he notes as possibilities to be drafted include Trey Burke, Alex Len, Shabazz Muhammad, and Dario Saric. I suspect that Shabazz was put on there because he's a big name, and I'm wondering if the Pelicans front office happens to be a big fan of Dario Saric.
CelticsBlog recaps the weird rumors about a trade involving Paul Pierce, Avery Bradley, and Eric Gordon. Jimmy Smith pushes back against these rumors pretty hard, saying that the Pelicans front office isn't shopping Gordon at all, something I'm inclined to believe. I doubt that Gordon has much trade value right now.
Another John Reid article - this one about the impact of the draft on Brian Roberts's future with the Hornets. The implication of the article is that if the Hornets go with a guard, Roberts won't be retained, which I think would be a shame.
Cool story about Trey Burke's workouts heading up to the draft. Odd detail: apparently he plays P-I-M-P instead of H-O-R-S-E.
Ryan Anderson and Anthony Davis will be attending Team USA's mini-camp in late July in Las Vegas.
Finally, Pelicans in St. Petersburg have apparently become very dependent on a pier that will soon be closed.

DraftExpress: Anthony Bennett Scouting Video

2013-05-23T17:00:08Z

This video's from January, but I'd recommend every Pelicans fan watch it.

UNLV's Anthony Bennett finished the year with fantastic stats and measurements -- 39% from three, 27.6 PER, 0.37 FTA/possession, 11.1 rebounds per 40 minutes pace-adjusted, 7'1" wingspan -- but Draft Express' scouting work here does an excellent job underscoring just how weird he is. All the awesomeness of the first half of video (his highlights) is more or less undone by how spectacularly poorly and lethargically Bennett approaches many aspects of the game. Hilarious blown defensive assignments, awful rebounding instincts, pull up threes with 31 left on the shot clock, pull up threes with 34 left (really) on the shot clock -- Bennett might be the biggest enigma in the draft.

He could be a top 3 pick, or he could fall out to the Pelicans' selection. I'm not a fan, but I'm willing to be convinced. Watch this and hit us with your Bennett insights:

Greivis Vasquez to Have Minor Surgery on Both Ankles

2013-05-23T11:00:06Z

Per El Universal, a Venezuelan paper based out of Caracas, Greivis Vasquez is scheduled for minor surgery on both his ankles tomorrow.

According to the report, Vasquez experienced some discomfort during the tail end of the season, and the procedure will remove loose particles from his ankles. The surgery will take place in Los Angeles, and the paper also reports that there's a 12-16 week recovery period on the table, putting Vasquez's participation in the FIBA Americas Championship in August in question.

Quoth Vasquez: "I played with pain during the final weeks of the regular season. I understand that this is the right decision. [I] need to focus on my rehabilitation and return healthy. Hopefully be able to play in the FIBA Americas Championship FIBA although I know that will be determined by how [developed] my recovery."

2013-2014 is the last remaining year on Vasquez's current deal; he's slated to earn a tad over $2M.

Orlando Magic Rumored to Like Trey Burke, Ben McLemore

2013-05-23T11:00:05Z

Not too surprising a headline, that.

Pro Basketball Draft suggests that's the direction Orlando might go with the second pick. While the team's current best player, Arron Afflalo, does play the off-guard, he could theoretically be moved over to small forward if the Magic elect to go with Ben McLemore. Trey Burke hasn't ranked near the top of mock drafts or overall big boards as frequently as McLemore, and so there'll be questions about whether Orlando feels comfortable taking him so high. Nonetheless, it'd make sense for them to address the backcourt in some capacity here, assuming Nerlens Noel is gone with the first pick.

If they take Burke, Washington would appear likely to pass on McLemore as well, having drafted Bradley Beal with the third pick just a year ago. That'd leave McLemore to Charlotte presumably at #4, with two of Anthony Bennett, Victor Oladipo, and Otto Porter making it to Phoenix and New Orleans depending on who the Wizards select.

On the other hand, if Orlando takes McLemore, Burke could slide a bit further down. Washington already has John Wall, and Kemba Walker came into his own for the Bobcats in 2012. Meanwhile, Goran Dragic has rattled off back-to-back great seasons, is ostensibly in the prime of his career at age 27, and signed a 4 year, $32M deal with the Suns last summer. We can't take either Charlotte or Phoenix passing on Burke as a sure thing, but Orlando selecting McLemore over Burke could plausibly create a very positive ripple effect for New Orleans.

Better Know a Prospect - Victor Oladipo, SG - Indiana

2013-05-22T22:30:20Z

With the outcome of the draft lottery decided last night, Otto Porter seems very unlikely to end up in a Pelican jersey. Now, asides the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Washington Wizards are reported to be very interested in selecting the Hoya on June 27, 2013. Consequently, let's shift our attention today to Victor Oladipo.

Bio

Oladipo attended the highly regarded DeMatha High School in Hyattsville, Maryland. Since it was a powerhouse, with many players going on to play for the college elite, Oladipo didn't become a starter until his senior year. In that final season, he averaged 11.9 points, 10.3 rebounds and 3.6 blocks a game. Not surprisingly, he was rated rather low among high school shooting guards: 41st by Rivals, 39th by Scout and 53rd by ESPN.

Regardless, due to his impressive motor and athleticism, he was still recruited by several notable schools including Notre Dame, Indiana and Xavier. Eventually, Indiana's persistence won out as Tom Crean saw a player he had to have on his roster:

"When you coach a guy like Dwyane Wade, you're always looking for the next one, and you realize, they're not really out there, so you're out there looking for some of the same traits,'' Crean said of Oladipo earlier this year. "We saw that talent, that upside, the athleticism, how humble he is and how undervalued. There wasn't a doubt in our mind he was going to be a key recruit.''

Stats

Victor Oladipo's first two years at Indiana were borderline mediocre and didn't scream - NBA prospect. In his sophomore campaign, he averaged 10.8 PPG, 5.3 REB, 2.0 AST. 1.3 STL, 0.6 BLK and 2.1 TOV. Both his PER (20.5) and TS% (.546) actually slipped from his freshman season. For whatever reason, besides FT%, his shooting efficiency dropped significantly, down 7% from 2 point range (52.3%) and a whole 10% from 3 point range (20.8%).

However, many things came together for him in his junior season, where he averaged 13.6 PPG, 6.3 REB, 2.1 AST, 2.2 STL, 0.8 BLK and 2.3 TOV. His PER and TS% skyrocketed to 28.9 and .648 respectively. His 2FG% jumped to 64.4% and 3FG% to 44.1%.

Skills

Prototypical SG. Oladipo measures to be 6'4'', but more importantly, has a wing span of 6'9'' and weighs 213 pounds.
Athleticism. At the NBA combine, Oladipo recorded an excellent vertical leap (33 inches) and a maximum vertical (42.5 inches). Additionally he fared very well on the agility tests, besting highly touted Ben McLemore. Lastly, he reportedly can benchpress 185 pounds 15 times.
Defensive abilities. In his final year of college ball, Oladipo posted a 86.9 Defensive Rating, which were buoyed by his strong per 40 minutes rates in steals (3.1) and blocks (1.1).
Intangibles. Many observers have credited Oladipo with an excellent motor and work ethic. Winning is a priority - back in high school, he agreed to come off the bench during his junior season.

Overall

Victor Oladipo, winner of the Sporting News Player of the Year and the NABC Defensive Player of the Year, is one of the top talents in the upcoming NBA draft. However, there remain several concerns that demonstrate, offensively, he isn't nearly as polished as say Otto Porter or Trey Burke.

First, many wonder whether his efficient production is sustainable. It's already been mentioned above the dramatic improvement he displayed from his sophomore to junior season. However, few fail to take into account a decline in many of his numbers through the course of his breakout season, when the schedule usually strengthens:

Split	Value	G	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Month	November	7	179	33	51	.647	4	13	.308	15	25	.600	14	21	35	10	15	3	12	19	85
	December	7	194	41	59	.695	6	9	.667	17	22	.773	18	30	48	21	19	8	20	13	105
	January	7	206	36	58	.621	8	12	.667	24	31	.774	23	19	42	18	18	5	16	21	104
	February	7	203	35	61	.574	6	16	.375	25	30	.833	13	28	41	13	12	6	12	13	101
	March	8	239	37	75	.493	6	18	.333	16	22	.727	25	36	61	12	14	6	23	23	96

Second, his playmaking ability is questionable at best. Besides suffering from a poor assists to turnover ratio, his turnover rate, when considering his shot attempts per game (8.4), is extremely high and he never showed any improvement in this area in his three years at Indiana.

These caveats are the main reason why I'm not a fan of people comparing Oladipo's ceiling to say that of Andre Iguodala; or some like Magic Johnson, taking it to a whole other level:

"To me, he's a combination of [Michael] Jordan and Dwyane Wade."

No one is saying Oladipo won't reach these lofty comparisons and become a perennial all-star, but in fairness, shouldn't the bar be a little lower? There is nothing wrong with drafting a more efficient shooting Tony Allen.

Mock Drafts: The Morning After

2013-05-22T18:06:26Z

Our first mock draft this morning comes from the generally-reliable NBADraft.net - they have the top six as such:

1. Cleveland - Ben McLemore

2. Orlando - Nerlens Noel

3. Washington - Otto Porter

4. Charlotte - Victor Oladipo

5. Phoenix - Anthony Bennett

6. New Orleans - Trey Burke

This mock is one of the few that has Cleveland selecting McLemore instead of Noel - something that isn't super-high probability, but is definitely possible. After that, Washington and Otto Porter seem like a good match, and Charlotte and Phoenix still appear to be huge wild cards. Rohan and I love Trey Burke, so this is heartening for us.

The second mock draft comes from NBA.com and is a bit more conventional:

1. Cleveland - Nerlens Noel

2. Orlando - Ben McLemore

3. Washington - Otto Porter

4. Charlotte - Victor Oladipo

5. Phoenix - Anthony Bennett

6. New Orleans - Trey Burke

This mock draft is almost exactly the same through the top six - the only change is to send Noel to Cleveland and send McLemore to Orlando. The unique thing about McLemore is that, although he is almost universally considered to be one of the top-2 prospects, he isn't a good fit with Cleveland or Orlando. Cleveland just drafted Dion Waiters and seems unlikely to want to pull the plug on him too soon. Orlando has Arron Afflalo at SG, one of the two decent players on the team. For the first time in years, it might make sense for one of the top two teams to consider trading their picks.

Let the Mock Drafting Commence

2013-05-22T17:50:35Z

We'll be updating this periodically with new mock drafts as they're released - if you see any we haven't, drop links in the comments.

With the draft order officially set last night, it's time to get more specific with our Pelicans draft board and overall mock draft in general.

Draft Express has a mock updated for last night's lottery available here, with explanations of the selections available here. DX's top 6 goes thusly:

1. Cleveland - Nerlens Noel
2. Orlando - Ben McLemore
3. Washington - Anthony Bennett
4. Charlotte - Victor Oladipo
5. Phoenix - Otto Porter
6. New Orleans - Alex Len

Orlando, Charlotte, and Phoenix, it appears could go in any possible direction, which makes planning for the 6th pick rather difficult. As Jon Givony writes about Orlando:

Trey Burke, Anthony Bennett, Otto Porter and others will get looks here as well, as its unlikely that we'll have much of a definitive inclination of what the Magic will do with this pick until much closer to draft day.

Of that group, I love Burke, and I hate Bennett. But for at least a few more weeks, we won't know how the teams above us feel about them.