At The Hive: FanPosts

Mock Draft-a-palooza!

2013-05-22T21:48:05Z

Mock Drafting this time of year is incredibly popular. The NBA Combine has concluded and now the exact order of the lottery has been determined. For those of you possibly living under a rock, luck was not in the Pelicans' favor. The first pick of the New Orleans Pelicans era will be the 6th selection in the 2013 NBA Draft, to be held at the Barclays Center on June 27th. Time, in the case of the numerous sports reporters, is of the essence. I have quickly created a table of nine different mock drafts. Later someone can add Chad Ford's if they would like below.

	Cleveland Cavaliers	Orlando Magic	Washington Wizards	Charlotte Bobcats	Phoenix Suns	New Orleans Pelicans
Draft Express	Nerlens Noel	Ben McLemore	Anthony Bennett	Victor Oladipo	Otto Porter	Alex Len
Jeff Goodman - CBS	Nerlens Noel	Ben McLemore	Anthony Bennett	Alex Len	Victor Oladipo	Trey Burke
Matt Moore - CBS	Nerlens Noel	Ben McLemore	Otto Porter	Anthony Bennett	Victor Oladipo	Trey Burke
Chris Mannix - SI	Nerlens Noel	Ben McLemore	Otto Porter	Victor Oladipo	Anthony Bennett	Trey Burke
Steve Kyler - Hoopsworld	Otto Porter	Ben McLemore	Nerlens Noel	Victor Oladipo	Anthony Bennett	Trey Burke
WalterFootball.com	Otto Porter	Nerlens Noel	Anthony Bennett	Ben McLemore	Victor Oladipo	Trey Burke
NBADraft.net	Ben McLemore	Nerlens Noel	Otto Porter	Victor Oladipo	Anthony Bennett	Trey Burke
NBA.com	Nerlens Noel	Ben McLemore	Otto Porter	Victor Oladipo	Anthony Bennett	Trey Burke
Jonathan Tjarks - SBNation	Nerlens Noel	Ben McLemore	Otto Porter	Anthony Bennett	Alex Len	Trey Burke

It is overwhelmingly obvious that the most agreed upon selection is Trey Burke to New Orleans. More so even than Cleveland's #1 overall pick. I personally have a difficult time seeing any team ahead of the Pelicans selecting Alex Len, but Anthony Bennett seems more realistic. Note that in every single scenario Trey Burke is available, Draft Express has the Pelicans passing on Burke for Alex Len. No thank you. Something about seven footers with broken feet or ankles scares me off.

Thanks to all these mock drafts I am becoming significantly more confident in the upcoming draft. The only potential damper would be if the Pelicans wasted a lottery pick last year on a potential point guard and have become to emotionally invested too cut bait.

Oh...

	Cleveland Cavaliers	Orlando Magic	Washington Wizards	Charlotte Bobcats	Phoenix Suns	New Orleans Pelicans
Draft Express	Nerlens Noel	Ben McLemore	Anthony Bennett	Victor Oladipo	Otto Porter	Alex Len
Jeff Goodman - CBS	Nerlens Noel	Ben McLemore	Anthony Bennett	Alex Len	Victor Oladipo	Trey Burke
Matt Moore - CBS	Nerlens Noel	Ben McLemore	Otto Porter	Anthony Bennett	Victor Oladipo	Trey Burke
Chris Mannix - SI	Nerlens Noel	Ben McLemore	Otto Porter	Victor Oladipo	Anthony Bennett	Trey Burke
Steve Kyler - Hoopsworld	Otto Porter	Ben McLemore	Nerlens Noel	Victor Oladipo	Anthony Bennett	Trey Burke
WalterFootball.com	Otto Porter	Nerlens Noel	Anthony Bennett	Ben McLemore	Victor Oladipo	Trey Burke
NBADraft.net	Ben McLemore	Nerlens Noel	Otto Porter	Victor Oladipo	Anthony Bennett	Trey Burke
NBA.com	Nerlens Noel	Ben McLemore	Otto Porter	Victor Oladipo	Anthony Bennett	Trey Burke
Jonathan Tjarks - SBNation	Nerlens Noel	Ben McLemore	Otto Porter	Anthony Bennett	Alex Len	Trey Burke

Oh...

Shooting for Success

2013-04-30T16:52:04Z

[From usnfish. I'm a huge fan of the "dumb zone" descriptor he uses in this post, a zone that for whatever reason seems to pervade the "scorer's mindset" all the way down to youth levels of basketball. -R]

The NBA has been inundated with advanced metrics in the past decade. Current Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey began a Sports Analytics course at MIT in 2004. This eventually developed into the MIT/Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in 2007, which has convened annually since that year. The Houston Rockets have been maligned in basketball purgatory for the majority of his tenure as GM. This year with a helping hand from Oklahoma City Morey was able to attain a superstar in James Harden and the Rockets earned their first playoff bid since 2009. Beyond Harden, much has been made of the style of play and heavy emphasis on efficient shots with Houston Rockets. Shooting zones have been roughly characterized as in the paint, the "dumb zone" and three point shots. Of course the corner three is the most prized of all.

New Orleans is not a franchise well connected with analytics. As seen here, the Pelicans are one of 15 teams who have not purchased the famed SportVU camera system from STATS LLC. Darey Morey, of course, worked as a consultant with STATS prior to working with the Boston Celtics. But even without a strong connection to analytics, the team's offensive improvement can easily be tied to basic analytical concepts taking hold in the league. The next table outlines the progress over last year and provides Houston's numbers for comparison. Information is pulled from Vorped.com. Each block contains the frequency of the shot taken, then the success rate in parenthesis.

Team	Paint	"Dumb Zone"	Three
11-12 NOLA	48.4%(52.8%)	36.8%(40.4%)	14.7%(31.4%)
12-13 NOLA	49.9%(52.1%)	27.8%(39.2%)	22.1%(36.2%)
12-13 HOU	49.5%(55.6%)	15.6%(36.9%)	34.7%(36.6%)

The increased rate of three point shots can be tied directly to the acquisition of Ryan Anderson. The Hornets, despite shooting lower percentages from the "Dumb Zone" AND the paint increased their offensive efficiency from 26th in 2011-2012 to tied for 15th in 2012-2013, as seen here and here. Despite shooting well below average from mid range the Houston Rockets ranked 6th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. You can check out more on NBA shooting averages here. Notice that the NBA average is around 39.3% from mid range. The key to improving offensively is not to make more mid range shots, it is to take less.

With all this in mind it is important now to analyze which future Pelicans are doing their part to score points efficiently. Below is a table of the top 10 players on the 2012-2013 Hornets, ordered by minutes played. As with the team charts, frequency is listed first, followed by FG% from that area.

Player	Paint	"Dumb Zone"	Three
Vasquez	54.5%(47.3%)	21.2%(42.7%)	24.1%(33.9%)
Anderson	26.6%(52.1%)	22.7%(43.3%)	50.6%(38.2%)
Lopez	74.8%(57.1%)	25.2%(42.0%)	N/A
Aminu	72.2%(55.5%)	23.5%(26.8%)	4.2%(20.0%)
Davis	65.2%(63.4%)	33.8%(30.4%)	0.8%(0.0%)
Rivers	59.3%(40.4%)	18.7%(31.9%)	21.8%(33.3%)
Roberts	32.8%(46.1%)	37.9%(40.9%)	29.2%(38.3%)
Gordon	46.5%(49.3%)	24.1%(33.6%)	29.3%(32.4%)
Mason	16.6%(41.3%)	30.3%(47.6%)	53.0%(41.5%)
Smith	38.0%(53.1%)	60.8%(47.1%)	1.1%(0.0%)

A few players jump out to me as especially valuable. The first is Anthony Davis. He is the most efficient scorer in the paint, converting at an extremely high rate. Looking at the numbers he is not as efficient shooting in the "dumb zone" as I anticipated from watching the entire season. This is not to say that he should eliminate the 18 foot jump shot from his repertoire, but that it could be used more judiciously. We can only hope that Davis will become as automatic as Jason Smith. I am pleasantly surprised at the shot selection from Austin Rivers. While his inability to finish at the rim has been a focal point his general shot selection has been good. He will improve at the rim, the hope is that it will be enough and that he can knock down his free throws more often. Beyond our rookies Ryan Anderson attempting 50.6% of his shots from deep is not a surprise. But it is a truly welcome addition to the roster. Any potential deal to move a player of his value should be taken with utmost care.

Troubling, in my mind, is the frequency of mid range shots taken by Eric Gordon and Brian Roberts. Unlike other players shooting a high volume of shots from mid range (Smith, Davis and Mason) Gordon and Roberts are tasked with creating their own shot. And far too often those shots in isolation are defensive victories. Not just in terms of the frequency of those shots missing, but that a challenged mid range jump shot where the rest of the defense has not been forced to rotate is always a good scenario for the opposition. Hopefully a successful off season can bring Gordon back to his 2010-2011 form, when he attempted fewer shots in the "dumb zone"(21.8%) and more in the paint (47.5%) and from deep (30.5%).

The mid range shot is often described as a "lost art" in the NBA. We in New Orleans can look forward to one of the elite artists in that discipline with Jason Smith. However, if the Pelicans hope to challenge for a position in the playoffs I would recommend that the remaining personnel focus on the art that pays, in the paint.

Team	Paint	"Dumb Zone"	Three
11-12 NOLA	48.4%(52.8%)	36.8%(40.4%)	14.7%(31.4%)
12-13 NOLA	49.9%(52.1%)	27.8%(39.2%)	22.1%(36.2%)
12-13 HOU	49.5%(55.6%)	15.6%(36.9%)	34.7%(36.6%)

Player	Paint	"Dumb Zone"	Three
Vasquez	54.5%(47.3%)	21.2%(42.7%)	24.1%(33.9%)
Anderson	26.6%(52.1%)	22.7%(43.3%)	50.6%(38.2%)
Lopez	74.8%(57.1%)	25.2%(42.0%)	N/A
Aminu	72.2%(55.5%)	23.5%(26.8%)	4.2%(20.0%)
Davis	65.2%(63.4%)	33.8%(30.4%)	0.8%(0.0%)
Rivers	59.3%(40.4%)	18.7%(31.9%)	21.8%(33.3%)
Roberts	32.8%(46.1%)	37.9%(40.9%)	29.2%(38.3%)
Gordon	46.5%(49.3%)	24.1%(33.6%)	29.3%(32.4%)
Mason	16.6%(41.3%)	30.3%(47.6%)	53.0%(41.5%)
Smith	38.0%(53.1%)	60.8%(47.1%)	1.1%(0.0%)

Eric Gordon still could be moved

2013-04-22T16:51:43Z

GM Dell Demps did not rule out a potential trade of Eric Gordon in the offseason. The writing has been on the wall since the team re-signed him as a restricted free agent before the season. Still owed north of $40 million over the next three seasons, Gordon has had back and knee issues continually throughout his brief career. It will be difficult to acquire a package deemed satisfactory unless the Hornets are just looking to get out from under that contract, and the latter scenario is entirely plausible.

What Fans Want vs. What GMs Can Get

2013-04-17T20:30:12Z

I listened to the entire Hornets 24/7 Podcast this afternoon on the treadmill. It is too hot to run outside. Already.

Getting back to the point of this (hopefully short but stimulating) post and ideal discussion below. The question was posed, "If you could upgrade only PG or SF this off season, which would it be and why?" As expected, the answer from all three people was PG. Due to Vasquez's lack of foot speed, inability to realistically be a starting point guard and win a playoff series, turnover proclivity, and the list should be memorized by any dialed in Hornet fan by now.

That question is a pant load of garbage. GMs do not have the ability to add players out of thin air, despite the enormous cap space available and a likely top five draft pick. In free agency a team cannot simply bid more and then the player signs. The whole purpose of "free" agency is that it is the player's choice. In context of a trade first the GM must find a GM willing to part with the target and a reasonable price. In the draft a team is limited to the players available. If the Hornets could just draft anyone should they win the lottery then pick Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker and wait. Not possible. They are limited to the players in the draft with all their strengths and weaknesses.

In the comments I hope to have a discussion on the potential additions to the Pelicans in 2014 and reasonable prices to pay for each. I will outline a few specific choices that have been brought up throughout the year but let's not be limited to just what I state here. But also be realistic in not only what Dell Demps would be receiving, but what another trade partner would be getting from New Orleans. Also in the case of Restricted Free Agents explore what may be too rich for the current team (to avoid them matching) or a sign and trade option to acquire.

Potential Additions:

-Rodrigue Beaubois, PG DAL (Restricted Free Agent)

-Eric Bledsoe, PG LAC (Must be traded for, under contract for 2013-14. Restricted Free Agent in Summer '14)

-Chase Budinger, SF MIN (Restricted Free Agent)

-Tyreke Evans, SG SAC (Restricted Free Agent)

-J.J. Hickson, C POR (Free Agent)

-Andre Iguodala, SG DEN (Free Agent)

-Brandon Jennings, PG MIL (Restricted Free Agent)

-Paul Millsap, PF UTH (Free Agent)

-Nikola Pekovic, C MIN (Restricted Free Agent)

-Josh Smith, PF ATL (Free Agent)

-Tiago Splitter, C SA (Free Agent)

-Jeff Teague, PG ATL (Restricted Free Agent)

I listened to the entire Hornets 24/7 Podcast this afternoon on the treadmill. It is too hot to run outside. Already.

Potential Additions:

-Rodrigue Beaubois, PG DAL (Restricted Free Agent)

-Eric Bledsoe, PG LAC (Must be traded for, under contract for 2013-14. Restricted Free Agent in Summer '14)

-Chase Budinger, SF MIN (Restricted Free Agent)

-Tyreke Evans, SG SAC (Restricted Free Agent)

-J.J. Hickson, C POR (Free Agent)

-Andre Iguodala, SG DEN (Free Agent)

-Brandon Jennings, PG MIL (Restricted Free Agent)

-Paul Millsap, PF UTH (Free Agent)

-Nikola Pekovic, C MIN (Restricted Free Agent)

-Josh Smith, PF ATL (Free Agent)

-Tiago Splitter, C SA (Free Agent)

-Jeff Teague, PG ATL (Restricted Free Agent)

Who would you like to see the Pelicans use their first pick on?

2013-04-16T14:25:10Z

I was looking over some of the top talent in the draft and thinking about how they would fit in with the Pelicans current game plan. Just curious who other people were hoping the Pelicans would draft. In my opinion:

McLemore - Streaky two guard with a subpar tournament performance. I think he would be a great player in the NBA but I don't see how he fits with the Pelicans moving forward unless they do intend to trade Gordon off.

Noel - Impressive defensive presence. Keep in mind before he went down with the injury people were saying he may end up blocking more shots than Davis did his freshmen year. Again he is a great player and will succeed in the NBA if he comes back healthy from his ACL injury but he could propose problems for the Pelicans. It would give them one of the best shot blocking front courts in the league and would make it difficult for any team to get off a shot within 10 feet of the basket. The downside is he is also a skinny power forward/center like Davis and would lead the two to have match up problems against any bruising centers.

Smart - I see the appeal of him but he isn't that athletic and I am a firm believer in Vasquez as the Pelicans point guard unless some crazy option comes open. I don't get the talk of replacing him after he lead the league in assists for much of the season, recorded multiple triple doubles (something Durant first did this year I think), and consistently puts it all on the court. Smart is not a solid point guard (IMO) and is essentially a combo guard who is not much taller than Gordon as is. I feel like getting him, like McLemore, would be due to a possible Gordon trade and I believe that with Smart it would be a downgrade.

Porter - I feel that Porter is the most likely candidate for the Pelicans as he is a wing, which appears to be the one position the staff feels the least sure about their current options. He is athletic and has a lot of room for improvement with a 7'1 wingspan if I remember correctly. Could be an upgrade but not something I think would immediately come in an make an impact on the team. Starting out would probably be a poor man's Aminu but could develop into more.

If anyone has any other thoughts I'd like to hear. Thanks.

Poll

Who would you draft if any was available?

McLemore

2 votes

Noel

7 votes

Smart

1 votes

Porter

9 votes

Other (Comment and say)

4 votes

23 votes | Poll has closed

Anthony Davis - A Rookie Season Comparison

2013-04-12T02:09:49Z

[We'll be having a bunch of A. Davis season recap action over the next couple weeks; today, usnfish hits it out of the park as usual in the FanPosts. -R]

The purpose here is to compare Anthony Davis to the two players he was most often compared to coming out of college; Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett.

First a personal note, I think the comparison to Kevin Garnett is significantly more appropriate. The players are similar not only in body type but also their skill sets. Kevin Garnett to this day focuses his offensive production on facing up rather than with his back to the basket, although he has improved significantly on the block from the rail thin teenager that entered the NBA. Even still much of his back to the basket game is centered around turnaround fadeaways on the left block. Tim Duncan has a different offensive skill set, both as a rookie and today. I do not believe it realistic to expect Anthony Davis to become the force on the block that Tim Duncan has been the past 16 years in the NBA.

To begin, I present you with a comparison of each player's rookie season in the NBA. Despite joining the NBA immediately out of high school Kevin Garnett was only two months older (May 19th vs. March 11th) than Anthony Davis to begin the season.

	Tim Duncan - 21	Anthony Davis - 19	Kevin Garnett - 19
PER	22.6	21.7	15.8
PP/36	19.4	16.9	13.1
RP/36	11.0	10.2	7.9
AP/36	2.5	1.2	2.3
BP/36	2.3	2.2	2.1
SP/36	0.6	1.5	1.4
TS%	.577	.559	.522
eFG%	.549	.516	.497
ORB%	10.5	10.6	9.1
DRB%	23.8	23.4	17.0
TRB%	17.6	16.9	13.1
ORtg	108	113	107
DRtg	95	104	107
Team Record	56-26	27-55?	26-56

Considering the difference in age between Davis and Duncan I believe their statistics are very close. Also remember that Tim Duncan started alongside David Robinson his rookie year. Robinson at that point was no slouch. The Admiral averaged 21.6 and 10.6 while posting a respectable 27.8 PER, good for third in the league that year behind Shaq and Karl Malone. Yes, ahead of Michael Jordan in his last year with Chicago.

It is clear that Davis has had a much more successful rookie season than Kevin Garnett. Now to examine what some were saying before AD played a game in the NBA.

Kevin Garnett is simply bigger. He weighs 253 pounds, and while that alone doesn't make him a better defender it means he plays with a different style than the skinnier Davis. You wouldn't expect a 210-pound running back to run the same way as a 240-pounder. It's the same with big men.

While Davis is a very good rebounder, he isn't nearly on Garnett's level. While he averaged an excellent 10.4 boards per game, it must be noted that he didn't play with any other real big men.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1236626-why-anthony-davis-isnt-the-next-kevin-garnett

The beginning statement ignores what Garnett was as a rookie, weighing in at 220 pounds. Interestingly enough, Anthony Davis is currently listed at 6'10" 220 pounds. The second paragraph is fundamentally untrue with a year of information. AD's 10.2 Rebounds per 36 minutes equals or exceeds Kevin Garnett's yearly performance in each of the past six seasons, his entire career in Boston.

One of the West general managers said Davis "is probably going to be better than Blake Griffin," and his GM colleague upped the ante by saying he expects him to be better than 14-time All-Star and future Hall of Famer Kevin Garnett.

"There's not one doubt in my mind that he's going to be way better than Blake Griffin," the second GM said. "I don't even think it's going to be close. I think he might end up being a little better than KG.

"He may be the quiet, humble [player] who's not as great as Tim Duncan, but [he'll be] that kind of a person, and maybe have the game to back it up. I don't think he gets to that [Duncan] level, but he's going to be pretty good."

One of the West executives wasn't ready for such ambitious comparisons.

"I have times when I wonder, 'Is he Marcus Camby, a great defensive player who alters the game defensively' " but doesn't have much offense? he said. "And then there are days when I say, 'Oh, no, he has much more offense to his game. He has this, he has that.' Plus, I think Anthony Davis is a pretty cool kid."

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/sam_amick/05/01/nba.draft/index.html#ixzz2QD3Hi4ug

Again here I think the shadow of who Kevin Garnett is (and especially what he was in his prime) clouds the judgement of what Anthony Davis needed to demonstrate as a rookie. Davis has more blocks, steals and a lower Defensive Rating than Kevin Garnett as a rookie.

While Tim Duncan had a more impressive rookie season, especially when considering per game statistics where Duncan's 10.3 additional minutes per game become a dramatic factor, Anthony Davis does hold up when focusing on advanced and per minute production metrics. And it cannot be overstated that Duncan entered into a lineup coached by Gregg Popovich and starting beside David Robinson. Both individuals are Hall of Famers. While the Spurs were 20-62 the year before Duncan's arrival they were 59-23 the year prior with David Robinson and Sean Elliott both healthy. Rarely does the lottery winner have such talent on their roster.

Finally, do allow for a moment the gravity of these comparisons to hold a moment. We are comparing Anthony Davis to two of the greatest power forwards in NBA history. And from an analytical standpoint Davis holds up quite well.

[We'll be having a bunch of A. Davis season recap action over the next couple weeks; today, usnfish hits it out of the park as usual in the FanPosts. -R]

The purpose here is to compare Anthony Davis to the two players he was most often compared to coming out of college; Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett.

	Tim Duncan - 21	Anthony Davis - 19	Kevin Garnett - 19
PER	22.6	21.7	15.8
PP/36	19.4	16.9	13.1
RP/36	11.0	10.2	7.9
AP/36	2.5	1.2	2.3
BP/36	2.3	2.2	2.1
SP/36	0.6	1.5	1.4
TS%	.577	.559	.522
eFG%	.549	.516	.497
ORB%	10.5	10.6	9.1
DRB%	23.8	23.4	17.0
TRB%	17.6	16.9	13.1
ORtg	108	113	107
DRtg	95	104	107
Team Record	56-26	27-55?	26-56

It is clear that Davis has had a much more successful rookie season than Kevin Garnett. Now to examine what some were saying before AD played a game in the NBA.

Kevin Garnett is simply bigger. He weighs 253 pounds, and while that alone doesn't make him a better defender it means he plays with a different style than the skinnier Davis. You wouldn't expect a 210-pound running back to run the same way as a 240-pounder. It's the same with big men.

While Davis is a very good rebounder, he isn't nearly on Garnett's level. While he averaged an excellent 10.4 boards per game, it must be noted that he didn't play with any other real big men.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1236626-why-anthony-davis-isnt-the-next-kevin-garnett

One of the West general managers said Davis "is probably going to be better than Blake Griffin," and his GM colleague upped the ante by saying he expects him to be better than 14-time All-Star and future Hall of Famer Kevin Garnett.

"There's not one doubt in my mind that he's going to be way better than Blake Griffin," the second GM said. "I don't even think it's going to be close. I think he might end up being a little better than KG.

"He may be the quiet, humble [player] who's not as great as Tim Duncan, but [he'll be] that kind of a person, and maybe have the game to back it up. I don't think he gets to that [Duncan] level, but he's going to be pretty good."

One of the West executives wasn't ready for such ambitious comparisons.

"I have times when I wonder, 'Is he Marcus Camby, a great defensive player who alters the game defensively' " but doesn't have much offense? he said. "And then there are days when I say, 'Oh, no, he has much more offense to his game. He has this, he has that.' Plus, I think Anthony Davis is a pretty cool kid."

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/sam_amick/05/01/nba.draft/index.html#ixzz2QD3Hi4ug

Defining Success - New Orleans Hornets 2012-2013

2013-04-02T22:29:24Z

The New Orleans Hornets have had a very successful season, despite what many believe. In athletic competition defining success is simplistic, victory. This goal is even more easily defined in basketball, one reliant on a scoreboard and not judges such as a variety of Olympic sports. However, in professional sports success can have a much more nuanced meaning. Success can be refined by cost effectiveness, franchise trajectory, and expectations. Owners like to say that every season that does not end in a championship is a failure, but that is unrealistic for most NBA teams this year, even before the first game was played. With all this in mind, I would like to redefine success for the New Orleans Hornets in 2012-2013.

I will begin with cost effectiveness. For the below table I have taken the liberty to remove any players who are amnestied from their payroll. This information is available at Hoops Hype. Players removed are: Brandon Roy (POR), Elton Brand (PHI), Andray Blatche (WSH), Darko Milicic (MIN), Rashard Lewis (NOH), Baron Davis (CLE), and Gilbert Arenas (ORL). I have also removed Matt Carroll from the Hornets salary number. This does not account for injured players who have missed significant time such as Andrew Bynum (PHI), Andrea Bargnani (TOR), Kevin Love (MIN), Eric Gordon (NOH), and Anderson Varejao (CLE).

Team	Winning Percentage	Payroll
Portland	.446	$59.4 Million
Philadelphia	.411	$65.0 Million
Minnesota	.370	$61.3 Million
Washington	.370	$59.1 Million
Toronto	.365	$66.2 Million
Sacramento	.365	$54.4 Million
New Orleans	.351	$46.9 Million
Detroit	.333	$68.8 Million
Phoenix	.311	$53.7 Million
Cleveland	.301	$54.5 Million
Orlando	.253	$66.5 Million
Charlotte	.230	$57.9 Million

As it is readily apparent, New Orleans is getting more bang for its buck this season than the other lottery bound teams (Dallas and the Lakers still have a realistic shot at the #8 seed). In a general sense the Hornets have been significant overachievers in this regard. Not only is the franchise spending the least (in the entire NBA, only Houston is even close at $51.9) on their roster this year, they are still deliver a quality product (for the price). Orlando is spending as much as Atlanta (for sake of keeping in not only within conference but division) yet has won 23 fewer games (42 v. 19).

Further there is a relatively defined salary line that separates the haves from the have nots. The following teams are still in playoff contention with a team salary less than $65 Million – Denver, Houston, Memphis, and Milwaukee. Similarly only three teams have salaries in excess of $65 Million who are eliminated – Toronto, Detroit, and Orlando. 13 of 16 teams spending at least $65 Million on basketball players are still in playoff contention in April. Please note that this value is in excess of the salary cap of $58 Million.

Let’s move on to franchise trajectory. If you have watched a single Fox Sports New Orleans broadcast of the Hornets this season you have learned that they are the second youngest team in the NBA, only the Houston Rockets are younger. It is difficult at times to get a good feel for the trajectory of a team within a season, but I will attempt to provide some perspective.

Month	W-L	Winning Percentage
OCT-NOV	4-10	.285
DEC	3-13	.188
JAN	8-8	.500
FEB	5-8	.384
MAR	6-9	.400

The team has gotten better as the season has progressed. Another measure would be the team before Eric Gordon’s return on December 29th and after. Before December 29th the Hornets were 6-23 (.207). During that period Gordon missed all 29 games and Anthony Davis missed 13 with a concussion and stress reaction. Since December 29th the Hornets are 20-25 (.444). I would be hard pressed to find a Hornet fan who would be disappointed in a .444 winning percentage on the year, which would be in the range of 36-46. I expect that the reaction to that season would be a mixture of false hope and a concern that the team is winning too much too early when more talent is needed. The second youngest team in the NBA has improved significantly throughout the season.

My last measure which can influence the definition of success is expectations. The betting line on the Hornets to begin the year was +/- 26.5 wins. With eight games to play the Hornets already have 26 victories under their belt, to include recent wins over playoff teams Boston, Memphis, and Denver. The best opportunities to gain win number 27 will be at Phoenix April 7th and at Sacramento April 10th. Further, John Hollinger’s projected wins this year was 30, and that was before James Harden arrived in the Southwest Division. The Painted Area Many of the other lottery teams are well behind their expectations except for Charlotte, who appears to be meeting their target for ineptitude.

Expectations for the Hornets within the fan base were pretty limited, as you can see in Rohan's Pre-Season Preview. Many people inside and outside the organization expected the Hornets to be awful on offense this year. I will let Tom Ziller speak for himself.

"This team is going to have a huge learning curve on offense. Davis is skilled and versatile, but offense isn't going to come easy in the NBA; the size and quickness of NBA big men will turn good college plays into NBA turnovers. Anderson is an elite shooter, but Stan Van Gundy's offense was dedicated to getting open shots out of Dwight Howard double-teams. Davis isn't getting double-teamed when the season starts, and maybe not at all in '12-13. So Anderson may be forced to create more than he'd like to, which should hurt his efficiency.

The point guard situation is ... dicey. Greivis Vasquez would be a decent back-up. Austin Rivers would be a promising two-guard. You see the issue, yes? The Hornets will either be rolling with an eighth-man trying to organize this new offense, or will have a young, impressionable shooting guard doing it. It's dicey. It makes me wonder if Kendall Marshall should have been the pick at No. 10. I know you pick for talent and not for need. But dang, this team really needs someone to organize the offense, and I don't think either Vasquez or Rivers can do it. That means that Gordon, Anderson and Davis will be creating their own shots way too much."

Tom Ziller Hornet Preview

Ryan Anderson has been required to create his own shot at a dramatically higher rate than 2011-2012 with Dwight Howard. But it has not affected his efficiency as negatively as expected. Anderson shot 43.9% from the field and 39.3% from deep last year; he is shooting 43.8% from the field and 38.9% from deep this year. Looking into his statistics further he was assisted on 73.5% of baskets last year compared to 67.8% this year. The most glaring change has been his increased reliance on mid-range shots, shooting 2.2 a game and shooting a respectable 45% from 16-23 feet. Check this website out for more information.

On Greivis Vasquez, it is an argument that rages here on a daily basis. But I can hardly think that Ziller’s idea of Vasquez being incapable of operating the offense would lead to the Hornets being 14th in offensive efficiency or The General leading the NBA in total assists. Vasquez is an admitted liability on defense, one I think is exacerbated by Robin Lopez playing center. However, could anyone realistically consider Kendall Marshall to be a more effective player this season than Vasquez?

There is one area that the Hornets have woefully performed compared to expectations, and that is on defense. I cannot find a single article prior to the season that predicts the Hornets will be one of the worst defenses in the NBA. But they have been. Despite being 8th in the league in defensive rebounding rate (74.2%, currently tied with Memphis). The Hornets give up too many shots near the basket or at the three point line and allow opponents to capitalize those opportunities. I pin this on foot speed and youth. The combination of Vasquez-Lopez has been ruthlessly attacked by opponents in the pick and roll all season. Allowing opponents free reign below the foul line (due to poor pick and roll defense) is the root of all the other problems on defense. Combine that with a young rotation and open looks either in the paint or beyond the arc have been plentiful. Opponents are shooting 37.5% from deep against the Hornets, good for 25th in the NBA.

Combine all this and I believe the Hornets have had an incredibly successful season. They have the cheapest roster in the NBA and flexibility to improve financially this summer and next. The team improved dramatically once their star player returned despite his struggles. And with all that New Orleans has still managed to exceed the expectations in the first real year of rebuilding. 2011-2012 would best be characterized as a demolition year, not a rebuilding year. Our next step as soon-to-be christened New Orleans Pelican fans is a successful draft, free agency period and the unveiling of new uniforms and a new court design. And I cannot wait.

Team	Winning Percentage	Payroll
Portland	.446	$59.4 Million
Philadelphia	.411	$65.0 Million
Minnesota	.370	$61.3 Million
Washington	.370	$59.1 Million
Toronto	.365	$66.2 Million
Sacramento	.365	$54.4 Million
New Orleans	.351	$46.9 Million
Detroit	.333	$68.8 Million
Phoenix	.311	$53.7 Million
Cleveland	.301	$54.5 Million
Orlando	.253	$66.5 Million
Charlotte	.230	$57.9 Million

Month	W-L	Winning Percentage
OCT-NOV	4-10	.285
DEC	3-13	.188
JAN	8-8	.500
FEB	5-8	.384
MAR	6-9	.400

"This team is going to have a huge learning curve on offense. Davis is skilled and versatile, but offense isn't going to come easy in the NBA; the size and quickness of NBA big men will turn good college plays into NBA turnovers. Anderson is an elite shooter, but Stan Van Gundy's offense was dedicated to getting open shots out of Dwight Howard double-teams. Davis isn't getting double-teamed when the season starts, and maybe not at all in '12-13. So Anderson may be forced to create more than he'd like to, which should hurt his efficiency.

The point guard situation is ... dicey. Greivis Vasquez would be a decent back-up. Austin Rivers would be a promising two-guard. You see the issue, yes? The Hornets will either be rolling with an eighth-man trying to organize this new offense, or will have a young, impressionable shooting guard doing it. It's dicey. It makes me wonder if Kendall Marshall should have been the pick at No. 10. I know you pick for talent and not for need. But dang, this team really needs someone to organize the offense, and I don't think either Vasquez or Rivers can do it. That means that Gordon, Anderson and Davis will be creating their own shots way too much."

Tom Ziller Hornet Preview

With Jason Smith out for the year how about

2013-03-01T22:10:50Z

Denzel Bowles he did well in summer league for us and maybe we can buyout his contract from the team in China. He is 6-10 and goes 250 with a seven foot wingspan . We could use someone with some size and girth . He also showed a nice jump shot in the summer. He also rebounded well for us. I would like to know your thoughts if we were to sign him to a contract .

Roster of the Future

2013-03-01T21:24:34Z

[Bumping this to the front page from the FanPosts; great read from usnfish - R]

First an analysis of the current salary situation of your 2013-2014 New Orleans Pelicans.

The Pelicans will have 11 players under contract to begin the 2013 season. This assumes that the team options are exercised for Robin Lopez ($5.12M), Lance Thomas ($0.88M), Darius Miller ($0.79M), and Brian Roberts ($0.79M). In addition the 11 player number assumes that the Pelicans use their draft pick, most likely to cost between $3.72M (picking @ #4) and $2.80 (picking @ #7). If the Pelicans do receive the fourth pick their total committed salary for those eleven players is $46.26 Million. There is a problem with that number. The salary floor, as per the new CBA, is 90% of the salary cap in 2013-14. If the salary cap is unchanged when the new NBA year begins July 1st the salary floor would be $52.2 Million. Thus requiring the Hornets to spend roughly $6 Million in additional salary. Let's take a look at that hypothetical roster.

Robin Lopez

Lance Thomas

Darius Miller

Brian Roberts

2013 First Round Draft Pick

Monty Williams recently stated that there will be changes to the roster coming this summer. I cannot imagine that the changes he and GM Dell Demps envision revolve around declining the options for Thomas, Miller and Roberts. Three players toward the end of the bench averaging the least amount of minutes per game.

It may involve an upgrade at small forward because I do not believe Monty Williams enjoys coaching or playing Aminu there. For evidence of this I refer to Aminu's roughly nine game benching during December and the exasperation on Coach Monty's face each and every time Aminu makes a mental error. I do not agree with this direction but can also point to the Hornets declining the last year of Aminu's rookie deal.

Ideally I hope the Pelicans do three specific things to improve their roster. First, jettison Robin Lopez and his extremely team friendly contract for anything of value. Robin Lopez is a below average rebounder; posting rebound numbers of 11.1/13.6/12.3 this season thus far. To compare All-Star Center Joakim Noah is posting a 11.8/22.2/17.0 line and our own Anthony "He Can't Be a Center" Davis is posting a 9.8/22.2/16.0 line. The defensive rebounding percentage (the middle) is the most concerning for Lopez. Defensive rebounds equal stops. In addition he is a liability on defense against the pick and roll, the recent Dallas game being the most painful example.

An excellent situation would be for the Pelicans to offer Larry Sanders (11.8/25.5/18.4) a contract that Milwaukee will not match (Sanders is a restricted free agent) considering Monta Ellis, Brandon Jennings and JJ Redick will all be free agents and sending Robin Lopez along in a sign and trade deal. The combination of Davis and Sanders would be devastating defensively. This is more of a personal pipedream but the Pelicans would have at least $11 million to spend just to reach the salary floor if they moved Robin Lopez.

Second is to draft a wing with their first round pick. Most mock drafts have the Pelicans selecting either Otto Porter or Alex Len. I cannot overstate how underwhelming picking a project big man will be. Alex Len is not a dominant big man in college. Scouts do not consider him to potentially be one in the NBA. If they did, he would be going #1 in all these mock drafts. Otto Porter or Victor Oladipo should be the first pick of the Pelican era. Porter is a long, multi-dimensional small forward with the range to score in the NBA. Oladipo is an amazing athlete and bulldog on the defensive end who is shooting 48% from the college three point line this year.

Third is to sign someone who can contribute now with the salary cap room available (this assumes the miracle of Larry Sanders does not occur). Chris Paul is not coming back, so stop yourself. There is room to make a max level signing (a la Josh Smith) but I do not think he would be a good fit or the kind of player Williams and Demps would desire to bring into the locker room, especially at $18+ Million a year. If Robin Lopez is moved (Step One in my plan) the Pelicans will have roughly $11 to $13 Million in free agent money that must be spent to reach the salary floor. The best options in my mind with that kind of money to spend would be Larry Sanders (mentioned above, is an excellent rebounder and defender and only 24 at the beginning of next season) or Paul Millsap.

The idea behind a Paul Millsap (who will be 28 to begin the 2013 season) is relatively simple on my part. Bringing in Millsap allows the Pelicans to spend the necessary money smartly on a David West to Indiana type of contract. Let's say 3 years/$30M. That number allows the Pelicans flexibility next year to pursue more talent, even a max level contract. Also Millsap helps move Davis to his ultimate position in the NBA (center) with a bruiser beside him and keeps Ryan Anderson as the primary scoring threat off the bench. The versatility Millsap has displayed will allow Coach Williams the flexibility to move him to small forward for some stretches in the game as a change up or as a crunch time lineup. Finally Millsap is a Coach Monty Williams kind of player if there ever was one in the league. He's a worker. He is never in the news for anything off the court negative or words being said in the locker room even during the end of the Deron Williams/Coach Sloan saga last winter. Paul Millsap is a consummate professional, originally from Louisiana (went to Grambling H.S. and Louisiana Tech) and the kind of player that the kids on this roster should learn from.

In addition to that signing I would sign Aminu if an appropriate deal could be reached.

Make those three moves and this is what the roster looks like.

Greivis Vasquez - 26

Eric Gordon - 24

Al-Farouq Aminu - 23

Paul Millsap - 28

Anthony Davis - 20

Ryan Anderson - 25

Otto Porter - 20

Jason Smith - 27

Austin Rivers - 21

Lance Thomas - 25

Darius Miller - 23

Brian Roberts - 27

That roster is not going to win the NBA Championship but it could challenge for the eight seed in the Western Conference. The average age of that roster is 24.08 to begin the 2013 season with Paul Millsap being the oldest at 28. Being one of the youngest teams in the league and challenging for playoff position is the definition of hope for any franchise. Combine that with maintaining a roster well under the salary cap and with the flexibility to take on an additional large contract the following summer and I cannot imagine a better scenario that doesn't involve a superstar suddenly deciding to come to New Orleans in the near future.

[Bumping this to the front page from the FanPosts; great read from usnfish - R]

First an analysis of the current salary situation of your 2013-2014 New Orleans Pelicans.

Robin Lopez

Lance Thomas

Darius Miller

Brian Roberts

2013 First Round Draft Pick

In addition to that signing I would sign Aminu if an appropriate deal could be reached.

Make those three moves and this is what the roster looks like.

Greivis Vasquez - 26

Eric Gordon - 24

Al-Farouq Aminu - 23

Paul Millsap - 28

Anthony Davis - 20

Ryan Anderson - 25

Otto Porter - 20

Jason Smith - 27

Austin Rivers - 21

Lance Thomas - 25

Darius Miller - 23

Brian Roberts - 27

Hornets interested in Greg Oden

2013-01-30T23:47:02Z

In addition to the Cavs and Heat, ESPN's Chris Broussard reports the Spurs, Hornets, Bobcats, Pacers and Mavs are interested in Greg Oden.

While that's basically a third of the league eying up Oden, no one should be surprised teams are investigating a player who went No. 1 overall just a few years ago. As the old saying goes, "you can't teach size" and if Oden's knees hold up in limited playing time, he could be an asset to any number of teams. We'll just have to see if Oden can actually stay healthy, which is a massive if at this point.

In addition to the Cavs and Heat, ESPN's Chris Broussard reports the Spurs, Hornets, Bobcats, Pacers and Mavs are interested in Greg Oden.

Transforming to a Pelican: The Future of our New Orleans basketball team

2013-01-28T05:48:22Z

[Promoting this FanPost to the front page for some good points and also use of the word "Hornicans" - R]

When it comes to making steps in the right direction, the Hornets seem to be heading that way. Being in the Western Conference, it isn't easy to shine in this conference without nearly being 9-10 deep. I think that the Hornets have some nice pieces, but there is still work to do in finding more depth at some of the positions.

I think a huge part of this team's struggles has been the absence of Eric Gordon. He easily makes this a .500 team if he's at his best. Health has been a concern with the stars of this roster, but when healthy, I think this team as is can compete with just about anyone on any given night.

So let's see what we can do to have an even better 2013-14 season:

1) A decent scorer at SF. I'm not hating on what Aminu has done so far, but I'd like to see his play in more limited minutes combined with a guy who can score at the 3 and maybe even possibly at the 2 as a bench option. I'm not sold on Miller and feel we might be able to get better here.

2) A true PG replacement, to either come off the bench or start. Rivers or Roberts isn't that guy long term. This offense needs a distributor and guys like Vasquez and Jack excel in this system. Putting someone with major talent would go nuts here. I think if the money is there, the Hornicans can get a solid PG to play here and be a bigger contributor than Vasquez, who is no doubt having a great year. I'd love to keep Vasquez regardless.

3) Continued work with Robin Lopez. I was excited about this pick up and thought he needed a team change. I think the best of Robin has yet to come, he could be as good as his brother with the right coaching and system.

via media.nola.com

Remember that guy in the Wizards/Bullets jersey?

Anyways, as the 2nd youngest team in the NBA, this team has the chance to grow together. I hope that the majority of the pieces stay in tact for the next few years and this team gets to play better together. After this season, Aminu is a free agent. I'd like to see him stay as a rotating starter at the 3, but would still like to see a scorer at the position as well whether off the bench or starting.

via cdn.bleacherreport.net

The future of this team is bright. It's only appropriate that we get a new team name and a new start. 2013-14 could be a great year for Hornican basketball.

via 3.bp.blogspot.com

[Promoting this FanPost to the front page for some good points and also use of the word "Hornicans" - R]

So let's see what we can do to have an even better 2013-14 season:

via media.nola.com

Remember that guy in the Wizards/Bullets jersey?

via cdn.bleacherreport.net

The future of this team is bright. It's only appropriate that we get a new team name and a new start. 2013-14 could be a great year for Hornican basketball.

via 3.bp.blogspot.com

PELICAN NATION TWITTER ACCOUNT!!!!!

2013-01-27T17:55:07Z

Check out the new twitter account for Pelicans! All the news, rumors, and everything you ask for on this twitter profile!

https://twitter.com/NOPelicanNation

If you have not heard, the hornets officially changed their name to the Pelicans recently.

So go to twitter right now! And follow Pelican Nation!!!! If you do not have an account, make one right now and then follow us on twitter!!!!

Lastly, we still will be updating you on the hornets this rest of the season. We will have every game, rumor, new, and much more!!! So, Log onto twitter now!!!!

Check out the new twitter account for Pelicans! All the news, rumors, and everything you ask for on this twitter profile!

https://twitter.com/NOPelicanNation

If you have not heard, the hornets officially changed their name to the Pelicans recently.

So go to twitter right now! And follow Pelican Nation!!!! If you do not have an account, make one right now and then follow us on twitter!!!!

Lastly, we still will be updating you on the hornets this rest of the season. We will have every game, rumor, new, and much more!!! So, Log onto twitter now!!!!

Poll

Do you like the new name "Pelicans" Better or worse than Hornets?

Yes

3 votes

No

1 votes

4 votes | Poll has closed

Finally going to my first Hornets Game

2013-01-18T15:40:36Z

I am finally getting the chance to go to my first Hornets game and I wanted to ask and see if there were any special things that I should do. Like what time to get there, the game is at 7 pm, and if there is a time that the players sign autographs and stuff like that. I have been trying for years to go, but when i was in the Army I couldn't just go whenever i wanted especially living in New York for awhile, and since I have gotten out, work and school have been moving me around Texas and finally back to Louisiana, and I made it a point to go to a game this year. Especially since the team is starting to turn things around and play pretty good with their young team. So any helpful advice will be appreciated.

Hornets On The Rise

2013-01-17T06:18:02Z

The only bad thing about the New Orleans Hornets lately is that they haven't changed their name to the 'Pelicans' yet. Hopefully the Charlotte Bobcats will slide them some royalties later.

NOLA has been quietly racking up wins on your NBA League Pass, winning 7 of their last 11 games. That stretch also featured a 4-game winning streak, the longest in a year. The return of shooting guard Eric Gordon from his troubling knee injury has sparked this team. The scorer's return has also helped point guard Greivis Vasquez take his game to the next level.

The Hornets have had some impressive wins over the past couple of weeks. They beat the San Antonio Spurs 95-88 at home, leading from start to finish. In Eric Gordon's debut the guys played with a confidence beyond their years. Spurs coach Gregg Popovich saw something special in Gordon, who's averaged 18.3 points in his four games back. "He's really good," Pop said. "He's a hell of a player. That makes a difference."

New Orleans then went to Dallas and stole Mark Cuban's heart. Gordon made some huge plays down the stretch, including the bucket that sent it to overtime. That victory sparked Cuban to tweet the following: "Im sorry NBA fans. Ive tried for 13 yrs to fix the officiating in this league and I have failed miserably. Any Suggestions ? I need help." Yeah Mark? try doing what the Hornets did...clearing salary cap space and acquiring draft picks. That's how you re-build a team.

Think the Hornets were done? wrong. They continued their improvement this week, going to Boston and handing the Celtics their clovers (90-78) on Wednesday night. Doc Rivers, who balled back in the 80's, couldn't even get his team to score that many vs Monty Williams' crew.

I know.....the Hornets are still at the bottom of the Western Conference at 13-26. But it's not about making the 2013 Playoffs. This group is laying the foundation for the future. Anthony Davis is growing daily by virtue of not having to play center (thank you Robin Lopez). The well-paid Ryan Anderson has accepted his 6th Man role and is ballin' despite his comfortable paycheck. Even Austin Rivers is coming around with his decision-making.

Now this group just needs to find some consistency.

The only bad thing about the New Orleans Hornets lately is that they haven't changed their name to the 'Pelicans' yet. Hopefully the Charlotte Bobcats will slide them some royalties later.

Now this group just needs to find some consistency.

Two moves that may help our team

2012-12-15T16:46:12Z

I made these to trade on trae machine and thought that they may help some of our holes

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=d5hw2ux

nola gets derrick williams enes kanter and alexey shved which gives us a better pg, a young strong center, and sf/pf that can hit the three and 1.6 milion in salary cap relief

utah gets an all star in kevin love to match with al jefferson

minnesota get a sg in eric gordon that is much needed and paul milsap to replace some of what kevin love does

now after that trade we do this trade

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=cxn57d7

Because we got kanter lopez becomes expandable

nola get henderson and reggie williams both of whom are very good shooters and can play defense

charlotte get mason and lopez this opens up space for kanter and smith to get more time and gives charlotte the center that they want

So what do you think?

I made these to trade on trae machine and thought that they may help some of our holes

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=d5hw2ux

nola gets derrick williams enes kanter and alexey shved which gives us a better pg, a young strong center, and sf/pf that can hit the three and 1.6 milion in salary cap relief

utah gets an all star in kevin love to match with al jefferson

minnesota get a sg in eric gordon that is much needed and paul milsap to replace some of what kevin love does

now after that trade we do this trade

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=cxn57d7

Because we got kanter lopez becomes expandable

nola get henderson and reggie williams both of whom are very good shooters and can play defense

charlotte get mason and lopez this opens up space for kanter and smith to get more time and gives charlotte the center that they want

So what do you think?

Poll

What do you think?

Heck yea let's do it

3 votes

would rather do something else

12 votes

uh that's the dumbest thing I've ever heard

19 votes

34 votes | Poll has closed