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Morris Peterson has always been the definition of a fringe starter. There are reasons to sit him, but there are also some reasons to start him. And perhaps chief among those is the way he fits into most any offense. Nobody wants an invisible player on the court, but nobody wants the 5th man to stick out any either. For much of his career, Mo struck that balance well.

Five miserable performances into the 09-10 season, is his time in that role over?

A trip down memory lane may be in order to predict his future.

For starters, the precipitous decline in PER over the past 5 years is ominous.

2006: 15.3
2007: 13.2
2008: 11.2
2009: 10.7
2010: 7.2 (5 Games)

It's not entirely unexpected either; wings in the mold of Mo-Pete tend to fade and fade hard as they hit their 30's. Two of Mo's most comparable players are George McCloud and Jaren Jackson... which is never a good thing. But while PER can be useful for comparing high value players, it often needs additional corroboration in its measure low value players who exist in different playing systems.

For example, in Toronto, Peterson's scoring role was far more pronounced. He averaged more than 3 FTA/36. In the long run, this seems pretty mediocre. Given Mo was averaged just around 10 FGA/game, though, it speaks to his more creative role. Upon his arrival in New Orleans, Peterson was transformed exclusively into a spot shooter. As much as people associate "Princeton offense" with Byron Scott (and others on that New Jersey staff, like Eddie Jordan), Peterson's role was hardly one characterized by off the ball cuts to the hoop. It was him hanging out on the corners or the wing, hoping for the kickout. It's only natural that his overall value would diminish in this system.

But how does one explain away Mo's decline with the Hornets? Changing system is one thing, but as we're all familiar with, the Hornets run virtually the same offense they did when Mo arrived.

The answer lies hidden in his floor percentages. Oddly enough, even as Mo's three point ability has remained stable, he's become a very  poor two point shooter.

Clearly, his skills are in decline. He can hit the standstill three, but he can't do much else at all. Then again, the Hornets need Peterson to literally do only two things: (1) make open threes and (2) perimeter defense.

Mo has looked awful to start the year because both those things, arguably, haven't been there. In terms of defense, images of Rodrigue Beaubois blowing by him on four consecutive possessions still lingers in my mind. But in a relative sense, who else do we have defensively? James Posey has lost a step on the perimeter; leaving him on small forwards and power forwards is easily our best bet moving forward. I'm more than willing to give Peterson some more time to evaluate his defense. The three point shooting? He's been poor; however, it's 5 games, and it certainly looks like statistically insignificant.

In the 9 years prior this season, Mo's three point percentage has never deviated outside of the 30-40% range. It hasn't come close to the low end since a poor third season in the league. Basketball Prospectus' projection system has him very similar to last year. Basically, it's too early to say that Mo has lost his three point shot; in fact, all signs point to the contrary. It's the one aspect of his game he's kept as he ages, and the one aspect he's likely to keep for a while longer.

The moral of the story: Morris Peterson may be done as an average basketball player, but in the role the Hornets have created for him, he still has value. The numbers say his shot will recover, without much doubt. His contract runs till 2011, and the two aspects of his game we utilize most- shooting and perimeter defending- will remain until then. Off the bench, the value of both those things plummets. He no longer has Chris Paul to create threes for him, and his perimeter defense is inherently less valuable if he guards the opposition's bench.

I'm all for Marcus Thornton getting minutes (as Byron has alluded to recently). From a relative value added sense though, I think it makes more sense to bring Thornton off the bench. From what we've seen of him at LSU, he doesn't need Chris Paul as much as Mo does. And Mo is the far safer defensive bet at this point. Essentially, Thornton can (potentially) do things off the bench that Mo cannot; on the flip side, Thornton's creative ability is diminished as the fifth starter.

Projecting Mo's future is tough; defending his recent play is even tougher. For all his struggles though, there still isn't a better fifth starter option on this roster.

More photos » by Jesse D. Garrabrant - NBAE/Getty Images

2 days ago: EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - NOVEMBER 4: Carmelo Anthony #15 of the Denver Nuggets shoots against Josh Boone #2 of the New Jersey Nets during the game on November 4, 2009 at the Izod Center in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)

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This should be the first in a weekly series documenting prominent stories in our conference.

Carmelo Anthony

Carmelo Anthony started his first 4 games ridiculously hot, before shooting 8-24 last night. It's ridiculously early, but he's drawn plenty of potential MVP talk nonetheless. A 31.1 PER, 36.2% usage, and 32 ppg will do that for you (well, unless you're Chris Paul, in which case it will earn you this). It's rather easy to see that Melo's base numbers are pretty unsustainable and a product of a small sample size. 47% three point shooting by a career 30% shooter. 12 trips to the line per 36 minutes vs. an average 8. A turnover rate slashed in half. Simple probability dictates that Melo will come down to Earth. But interestingly, his Nuggets team may truly be as good as they're playing. Chauncey and Nene have picked up where they left off. And like everyone but GM's predicted, Ty Lawson has been stellar.

Artest on the Lakers

I don't care that the Lakers have 4 wins in 5 games; they can't be happy with their play thus far. The offense has been downright mediocre, with offensive rebounding the only thing holding it up. Now Pau Gasol is out, but a team with Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom, and Ron Artest playing marginally better offense than the Clippers? They've squeaked by the Hawks, Thunder, Rockets, and Hawks, with a convincing loss to Dallas mixed in. And the initial returns on Ron Artest? Not good, despite what ESPN and everyone else wants you to believe. The one, monumental question all offseason was how Artest's efficiency would adapt, with a lower usage rate. Right now, he has the lowest usage rate of his career (16.3%), almost ten (!) percent lower than last season. And, huh, his PER has also plummeted to the lowest of his career by far. I assume Gasol's return will only serve to take further possessions from Ron. Yes, this is only 5 games, but Artest is not Ariza, no matter how much L.A. tries to stuff him into that role.

Steve Nash

Steve Nash is surprising a lot of people with the way he ages. He's still shooting and passing extremely effectively. As Hornet fans, I think we'll never truly appreciate Nash's game. Much of that is because we have a point guard who's way better than him, but has 2 fewer MVP's. So that bitterness will always persist. But Nash is playing basketball at a level that no 35 year old should be able to.. and minus Shaq, the Suns are actually watchable again.

Houston

The NBA statistical community has long had one very unsettled debate- what exactly is the value of shot creation? Everyone realizes that unefficient players could very well be undervalued by figures like PER, because shot creation is very much a basketball skill, in the style of speed or court vision. Everybody realizes that shot creation is valuable, but how valuable is another question altogether. In light of that debate, Daryl Morey has concocted the perfect test tube in Texas- a collection of high efficiency, lower usage (and lower shot creation) players. With Tracy McGrady out, this effect is just exacerbated. As Houston continues to force feed Ariza into taking shots, it's becoming more and more clear that Ariza is no #1 option. It's early, but the initial returns on Houston's experiment look positive. They've played the Lakers to within a point, played Portland close, and also beaten them, Golden State, and Utah.

Houston really isn't your typical anonymous team; their play this year could really change the way teams are constructed. Their first five have not disappointed.

More photos » by Bill Haber - AP

But... he sat out my legendary preseason!

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As I alluded to in the last post, four games is a tiny sampling of the NBA season. But we have to be thrilled with Okafor thus far.

A quick glance at his statistics indicates he's been playing at a high level. Duh. More interestingly, he hasn't done anything totally exceptional or unsustainable in four games.

For example, he's shot well from the floor. 54.5% from the field is pretty good, but it's less than his career high of 56.1% last year. It's also right on line with 53.5% the year before and 53.2% the year before that. Basically, 54.5% is where Emeka should be around for the year.

He's converting on 83% of free throw attempts... about 23% higher than his career rate. So that won't stand up. However, his true shooting has remained similar to last year's since he's going to the line less. So the unsustainable free throw percentage is basically a wash, not affecting his overall performance.

His offensive rebound rate- 11.2%- is .7% below his career. His defensive rebound rate is 29%, 4% higher than his career rate. But with David West's pathetic attempt at "rebounding," Okafor figures to have plenty of defensive rebounding chances.

Basically, the jump in Okafor's overall numbers (PER, etc.) may or may not be sustained through the season. It's four games. But breaking down his performance into component pieces suggests that there's nothing flukey about Okafor so far. Knock on wood that he stays healthy. But he's only going to get better with Chris Paul- I feel he's been mostly doing his own thing offensively... as he starts to play off Paul, he should only improve.

Emeka Okafor has been excellent, and we have no indications that that's going to change.

I would start by saying,"I'm sure you've all heard Rajon Rondo's comments...", but I won't say that, because I hadn't heard them, and by the transitive property of my intellectual superiority, you probably haven't either.

But seriously though, hat tip to Hornets Hype for linking me to the Chris Mannix tweet, and forcing me to address a topic I've long wanted to. 

First, Rondo's alleged quote, through Kendrick Perkins, through Chris Mannix: "Chris Paul has the stats that he has because he has the ball in his hands all game."

This is an assertion I've seen echoed by many, many people before. In fact, it's one of the prime arguments that the Deron Williams > Chris Paul crowd affixes itself to. I.e., "if Chris Paul played in Utah's offense, where he would actually have to set screens and do things other than dribble 24/7, he'd be way worse than Deron Williams."

Random note: I just realized I get, like, an adrenaline rush whenever I see a Hornet even minorly slighted. I was just about to go to sleep, decided to check out the Hype one more time before turning in, and then boom! Wide awake, knifing through statistics, thinking up witty banter.

Anyways, as you might imagine, there's some very flawed logic that accompanies Rondo's statement.

First of all, I'm going to go out on a very short limb here and assume that Rondo is speaking of total stats, in lieu of rate stats. People that read this site (and people that do not, but are intelligent) are surely aware of the idiocy of relying on total statistics. But even if we cut Rondo a little slack, and assume he was talking about rate stats... he's still wrong.

Look around the league. You'll find plenty of point guards with very solid assist rate and scoring efficiencies, with usage rates in the 18%-22% range (oh, hey.... that's funny. Rondo's one of them!). If Rondo were right, every coach in the league is an imbecile for not giving his lower usage, higher efficiency players more possessions. The reason Rondo's wrong is that efficiency stats tend to decrease with increases in usage rate. You can't just assume that a player producing 1.1 points/possession, using 1 in every 5 team possessions, will sustain that rate while using 2 in every 5 team possessions. Specifically, sustainability is a skill set unto its own. It can come in the form of creativity (perhaps that one head fake will work when you use it once every 20 possessions, but not so well when your opponent sees it every other time down the floor), physical endurance, or a number of other aspects.

The reason Chris Paul (and Dwyane Wade and LeBron James) are so good is because they can be incredibly efficient on offense while using a ton of possessions. This is why they are given a ton of possessions. Rondo has the process precisely backwards. And before we dispense with Rondo, one more thing:

Rondo, career usage: 18.3%
Paul, career usage: 24.8%
Rondo, points/100 possessions: 108
Paul, points/100 possessions: 124

So not only would Rondo be worse than Paul if he were able to sustain his current efficiency and were given Paul's usage (unlikely), he wouldn't be close. And if we were to be realistic and pare down Rondo's projected efficiency at Paul's usage... um, yeah.

And re: the Deron Williams crowd. In Williams' case, it isn't the disparity in usage rate we should be looking at; DWill has highly comparable usage statistics to Paul. The DWill crowd's gripe is that Hornet plays are "set up" to either end on Paul assist or shots. They contend that Utah's offense doesn't center on Williams ending every play. Well, guess what! Hornets plays are set up like that, because Paul is extremely, extremely good at ending plays like that. Williams' efficiencies are far lower, running his offense however the hell he runs it; often, Utah plays end with Boozer, Millsap, Kirilenko, or others creating. The fact is, Utah has a much stronger supporting cast than New Orleans. Jerry Sloan wisely uses this to his advantage. To assume that Williams would have Paul's stats (rates and totals) if he played in a similar offense is dead wrong, because Williams' turnover rates and overall offensive efficiencies strongly point to the contrary.

Chris Paul has the stats that he has because he has the ball in his hands all game, and also because he happens to be Chris Paul.

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

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Marc Stein included this little snippet in his Stack Jax rumor column:

New Orleans, by contrast, would appear to have a clear and growing need for Jackson’s scoring threat and swagger from the wing, especially if you’re making judgments based on the mere 20 combined points managed by Morris Peterson, Julian Wright, Peja Stojakovic and James Posey in the Hornets’ season-opening loss at San Antonio. Yet it remains to be seen whether the Hornets will firmly enter the bidding for Jackson, who, remember, has a three-year contract extension worth nearly $28 million that kicks in after this season.

For now, it seems pure speculation. But despite Stein's claims to the contrary, the Hornets in no shape or form need Jackson's "scoring threat or swagger," mostly because the scoring threat was always greatly exaggerated.

Jackson is 31 years old; he's scheduled to make 10 million+ at age 34. He's not a particularly stout defender. He plays for the one coach in the league who wouldn't immediately bench him for his shot selection. He's never particularly been good at involving teammates, other than an anomalous 2007-2008. He can create his own shot, but last year's 2.1 FTA/36 (half his career rate) is very, very ominous (thanks, Caleb). He's an extremely lazy rebounder. And oh yeah, he's completely insane.

The Hornets probably never did nor ever will look into Jackson, and that's best for all involved.

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

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It's hard to believe Chris Paul has been in the league for four years, 300 games, and over 11,000 minutes now. It really is. These first four seasons of CP3 have been like the discovery of an amazing, underground band, and their subsequent evolution to the mainstream. They've been like a teacher watching a brilliant pupil move on to bigger things.

Above all, it's bittersweet.

On the one hand, there's elation that the world finally recognizes his talents. On the other, there's the feeling that "I knew he was going to be this good before anyone knew who he was." I'm not going to lie; I strongly associate with the latter. I remember following CP's first-ever game on ESPN GameCast, I remember that day was my birthday, I remember watching the highlights and being blown away by the flashes of brilliance in an otherwise mediocre debut, I remember how positively tiny he looked on the court. That feeling of "but I saw him first!" lingers on, and I'm sure any supporter of a downtrodden team that has experienced success (Rays, Pistons, Colts come to mind) can relate.

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Morris Peterson has started the first two preseason games at shooting guard, scoring 16 points on 13 shots, including 5 for 9 on threes. Now, granted the preseason means absolutely nothing... but the rest of the Hornets' presumed starters (minus the injured Okafor) all started. So I assumed that Mo being out there was just a confirmation of his starting role.

The Times-Pic didn't portray it in as certain a light today, with their article "Mo-Pete Fighting To Retain Starting Spot."

The overall premise is that with Peja Stojakovic's move to the SG position, it's a three horse race between Mo, Peja, and Marcus Thornton.

Now I'm all for job competition and all that... but let's be honest here. Are Peja or Marcus going to guard Kobe Bryant? Tracy McGrady? Manu Ginobili? Kevin Martin? Dwayne Wade?

It's not official, but it's kinda official.

More photos » by Bill Haber - AP

This is slightly amusing.

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Ha ha ha, I'm funny.

Hilton Armstrong will have earned approximately $8.5 million dollars at the end of this season. It's a sum most of us can only dream of. More importantly, Hilton won't see such money again barring a quick turnaround.

The Hornets surprised me by picking up Armstrong's 2008-2009 option as quickly as they did. He did, after all, put up one of the most abysmal seasons (07-08) by a center in recent memory. In fact, only two centers have posted inferior sophomore seasons (Olowakandi, Diop), given comparable playing time, in the last two decades (win shares). I thought the Hornets would make him sweat at least a little.

They didn't, which makes me averse to flatly predicting that this will be his last year. New Orleans has a 3.85 million dollar option on him for next year. How good does he need to be to justify that contract and will he achieve it? It's unclear whether the front office seriously asked that question last offseason. Next summer, they may have no choice.

And this is why. If there is one thing Armstrong can do to save his career, it's reversing the above trends. Forget catching the ball, forget shooting the ball, forget anything and everything else. If Hilton can't stop this slide, his NBA career is effectively over. Sure, the Hornets might end up picking up a 2010-2011 option anyway. But being out-defensive rebounded by a guy a foot shorter than you is just plain ridiculous.

It's important to note that Armstrong wasn't always this bad. With a 17% D-reb rate as a rookie, he provided himself with a nice jumping off point. Granted, he never took advantage of it. But he was once at that point. If nothing else, he provided the team with solid boardwork now and again. Honestly, I think that's all it would take for the Hornets to give him another year.

Pinpointing the exact reasons behind the slide is difficult. I'm surely not alone in observing zero strength gain in the past three years. We've seen David West bulk up considerably, Chris Paul become much stronger, and even Sean Marks toughen up as last season progressed. But Hilton doesn't look much changed. The bigger problem with him seems to be not one of rebound anticipation, but inability to execute on box outs and positioning. It strikes me as a strength issue above all else.

My other main concern is a lack of footwork. This hinders his rebounding ability, and more importantly, his defensive skills. When a post player faces up on Armstrong, Hilton does a good job of using his length and height to deny most passing angles or the face up shot. The moment the offender makes a lateral move, though, everything falls apart. Of course, this quickly leads to him slapping the offensive player on the arm. Last season, Hilton averaged 6.0 fouls per 36 minutes... which was actually an improvement from his 6.4/36 the year before.

Moving to the offensive side, Hilton improved quite a bit last year. After a 57% true shooting performance as a rookie, he dipped dangerously to 50% as a sophomore. Last year saw him recover to almost 59%. I hate to keep hating on Hilton here, but there are signs that the recovery was illusory.

Most importantly, Hilton saw a sharp spike in his on-floor minutes with Chris Paul (due to Tyson Chandler's absence). Qualitatively speaking, it's fair to say big men are more efficient scorers with Paul around. There's quantitative evidence too. In his sophomore campaign of 45% shooting from the floor, Armstrong was assisted on a paltry 46% of his buckets. Last year, playing alongside Chris Paul more often, he was assisted on a significantly higher 59% of his field goals. In other words, there isn't much evidence suggesting that Hilton will maintain similar production, as he returns to a full time bench role.

Other flags: his ability to get to the free throw line (one of the best measures of isolated offensive performance) dipped again last year. Despite a decent increase in his jump shooting ability, he only converted on about 35% of them... not nearly efficient to justify the shot selection. Finally, he was blocked on 19% of his close range shots.

As much as I enjoyed seeing Hilton break out in three or four games last season, the numbers suggest he has an entirely new challenge ahead of him with an exclusive bench role. At this point, Sean Marks has to get the nod as the first C off the pine. His defensive rebounding is simply much beyond Armstrong's. Marks certainly relies on his teammates' shot creation just as much as Hilton, but until Armstrong can match the rebounding and defensive intensity, he should be saddled with the the 3rd string big man role.