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Thanks to Ziller for breaking it here on At the Hive, below.

According to Sam Amick: "A source with knowledge of the situation says the Kings are discussing a trade with New Orleans that would send Kenny Thomas to the Hornets and bring center Emeka Okafor to Sacramento. No deal is imminent and this is merely a discussion between the two sides at this point."

Here's the salary situation, via Sactown Royalty, via ShamSports:

First of all, this isn't a surefire deal for Sacramento. On their end, they have to question Okafor's health a little bit, the length of the contract, the overall money, and Okafor's eventual ceiling (which he's, almost beyond a shadow of a doubt reached). They have to worry about the development of younger guys in Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson with Okafor around. And finally, they have to wonder whether a nearly 9 million expiring can get them something more useful.

From New Orleans perspective? It's basically a straight salary dump, the likes of which the league doesn't see very often. The Hornets slash about 46 million off guaranteed salaries over the next four years. Kenny Thomas hasn't played competitively for multiple seasons now. The sale of Okafor would likely force Hilton Armstrong or Sean Marks into a starting role, effectively ending the Hornets' season.

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On the eve of Coach Jeff Bower's first game, I thought I'd wade through previous Hornet coaches and how they did their first time out.

Byron Scott, November 3, 2004 (Game 1): The Hornets lost at home to the Dallas Mavericks by 15. New Orleans actually would not win its first game for another 19 days, on its tenth game of the season at Utah. Oddly enough, New Orleans would only win in Salt Lake City once more over the next five+ years.

Tim Floyd, October 29th, 2003 (Game 1): A little more than a year before Scott got his start, Floyd debuted for the Hornets in an overtime win against the Hawks at home. This iteration of the Hornets would actually win its first three before losing to those same Hawks on the road, five days later.

Paul Silas, March 9th, 1999 (Game 16): The Hornets trounced the Boston Celtics at home by 18, a day after Dave Cowens left the team. Suiting up for Charlotte that day: Brad Miller and Ricky Davis. Silas would last as coach until the end of the '03 season, overseeing one of the more successful eras of Hornet basketball. Silas took over a 4-11 team, leading it to a 22-13 record down the stretch (lockout season).

Dave Cowens, November 2nd, 1996 (Game 1): Cowens took over a 41-41 team from the year before. On his first game, the Hornets swept aside the Toronto Raptors by 11, at the Hive in Charlotte. The team would go on to win 54 games before losing to the eventual champion Michael Jordans in the first round.

Allan Bristow, November 1st, 1991 (Game 1): This one's well before my time; Bristow's Hornets lost the season's first game to the Boston Celtics on the road, by 3. The leading scorer for the Celtics? Larry Bird.

Gene Littles, January 31st, 1990 (Game 41): I don't remember much about Littles other than that his was among the first basketball cards I ever owned. The Littles era started stunningly poorly- a 34 point loss at the Spurs, the sixth in a 9 game losing streak.

Dick Harter, November 4th, 1988 (Game 1): And of course, Dick Harter oversaw the inaugural game of the franchise, a 40 point loss at the Hive. That Hornets team would find the perfect antidote a few days later, beating the Clippers by double digits. Some things never change.

So basically, coaches have gone 3 of 7 in their first games with the Hornets. This is the part where, if I were a commentator, I would tell you that the Hornets have a 3 in 7 shot of winning their game tomorrow. You know, historical evidence and what not. Statistics suck, but 20 year old empirical evidence? Ooh, give me some of that.

Seriously though, who knows what's on tap. Maybe the change lights a fire under our guys, and they go out and beat a very good team. Maybe we lose by 59.

Whatever happens, Jeff Bower becomes the eighth coach in Hornets' history tomorrow, and it's sort of exciting.

More photos » by Dean Hare - AP

From one mess to the next.

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My fandom in various sports is highly diverse and sort of crazy. I'm a New York Yankees fan in baseball, a Denver Broncos fan in football, a fan of the New Orleans Hornets in basketball and a general fan of the Pacific-10 in college sports. I haven't even been to half these places. But those last two things have given me pretty good perspective on new assistant coach Tim Floyd.

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With New Orleans taking on a red hot Phoenix tomorrow, I guess this is timely.

One of the early trends of the season has been the revival of Steve Nash. The Suns completed one of the more impressive Eastern swings recently, with wins over Philadelphia, Miami, and Boston easily offsetting a loss at Orlando. And Nash, for sure, has been very solid. A lot more solid than some may have expected. Consider, for example, some of his trends the last three years:

Considering the trends from 2007-2009 (universally downwards in PER, TS%, eFG%, AST%, and ORtg), Nash has had a very impressive start to 2010. Couple that with team wins, a statistic that people very often use to overrate individual players, and Nash's value seems to inherently increase. But is Nash's pace- which, by the way, is just a shade shy of his "MVP" years, a.k.a. Chris Paul's rookie and sophomore years- sustainable?

My initial inclination is no. The primary driver of Nash's overall efficiency is his assist rate right now. He leads the league, right ahead of Paul, in assists per possession. A huge reason for this is that his team is shooting outlandishly from the field right now. Jason Richardson, a career 37% three point shooter, is shooting 58% on nearly 40 attempts. Grant Hill and Goran Dragic have put down 50% of their attempts. Channing Frye, who had made 20 threes in 4 years prior to this, has made 22 in 8 games. And even Jared Dudley has nearly attempted 30 threes. The Suns are shooting over 47% as a team from three. As a team, their eFG% of 57% is far and away the best in the league, and is totally unsustainable. Last year's leaders- also the Suns, unsurprisingly- shot 54.5 eFG%, a significantly lower figure. Last year's three point leaders- the Kings, surprisingly- were far and away the NBA's best at 40.6%.

The Suns will cool down, and it will affect Nash's assist numbers. So his overall efficiencies will go down. However, there may be a good case that he will sustain his own shooting figures. Last year's lower numbers (Nash's "lows" obviously being highs for anyone else) may very well have been anomalous.

Of course, I need to talk about Chris Paul at this juncture.

These numbers have earned Nash early MVP and All-Star starter buzz and Paul... nothing:

Are Paul's shooting rates as unsustainable as Nash's assist rates? Oh, absolutely, probably more so. But over the first two weeks of the season, they're not even playing the same game! By Win Shares, Paul has been twice as valuable as Nash!

Lately, I've been hearing a lot of commentators say "you know, I'd just put Chris Paul a hair above Deron Williams. Just the slightest of tiny edges on Steve Nash." We've finally seemed to reached the point where Paul is acknowledged to be better than his competition by most people, but most are reluctant to state it firmly. Tomorrow, we'll see the announcers talk about how this is a matchup of the league's two best point guards. That's probably true... but it's also a matchup of the league's second best lead guard and league's best player.

Yep. Yep yep yep.

I've made clear who I want starting at the 2, despite his struggles. Honestly though, I don't have anything against trying out a committee and seeing who performs. I'm just dubious when that committee includes Devin Brown.

A fifth starter who plays with Chris Paul, David West, and Emeka Okafor needs to be able to shoot and not take over offensive plays with those three guys on. Devin Brown does not fit this bill at all. He really has no range to speak of, as he shot 29% from three last season and 30% the year before. The unfortunate thing is Brown seems to think he's good at shooting- he attempted almost 100 last year after 146 the year before. Byron Scott, for whatever reason, has allowed him to indulge this fantasy. Moving him into the starting lineup into a role that has frequently been on the receiving end of kickouts for three does not, well, solve this issue. At all.

There is really just one positive to Brown's game, and that's his ability to get to the foul line on broken plays. On units that don't have much creativity, he can force himself to the hole and occasionally pick up some cheap points. Thing is, this skill set will not be needed with Paul/West/Okafor on the floor. In the slightest.

Baskeball Prospectus' defensive stats indicate that Brown is actually a pretty solid defender. That's the one area I could see this move sort of working. If he can do a good job over the next few games on some upcoming opponents, then who knows. Perhaps he wrests control of the job from Mo-Pete for good. He's already shown the inexplicable ability to completely avoid Byron's doghouse.

In sum, I see this failing pretty badly on offense, and maybe, maybe, yielding some defensive results. Either way, Byron has indicated that this is a "6 game tryout." Which means we can start the Marcus Thornton countdown- Thursday, November 19th vs. Phoenix.

12 more days, people.

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

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Morris Peterson has always been the definition of a fringe starter. There are reasons to sit him, but there are also some reasons to start him. And perhaps chief among those is the way he fits into most any offense. Nobody wants an invisible player on the court, but nobody wants the 5th man to stick out any either. For much of his career, Mo struck that balance well.

Five miserable performances into the 09-10 season, is his time in that role over?

A trip down memory lane may be in order to predict his future.

For starters, the precipitous decline in PER over the past 5 years is ominous.

2006: 15.3
2007: 13.2
2008: 11.2
2009: 10.7
2010: 7.2 (5 Games)

It's not entirely unexpected either; wings in the mold of Mo-Pete tend to fade and fade hard as they hit their 30's. Two of Mo's most comparable players are George McCloud and Jaren Jackson... which is never a good thing. But while PER can be useful for comparing high value players, it often needs additional corroboration in its measure low value players who exist in different playing systems.

For example, in Toronto, Peterson's scoring role was far more pronounced. He averaged more than 3 FTA/36. In the long run, this seems pretty mediocre. Given Mo was averaged just around 10 FGA/game, though, it speaks to his more creative role. Upon his arrival in New Orleans, Peterson was transformed exclusively into a spot shooter. As much as people associate "Princeton offense" with Byron Scott (and others on that New Jersey staff, like Eddie Jordan), Peterson's role was hardly one characterized by off the ball cuts to the hoop. It was him hanging out on the corners or the wing, hoping for the kickout. It's only natural that his overall value would diminish in this system.

But how does one explain away Mo's decline with the Hornets? Changing system is one thing, but as we're all familiar with, the Hornets run virtually the same offense they did when Mo arrived.

The answer lies hidden in his floor percentages. Oddly enough, even as Mo's three point ability has remained stable, he's become a very  poor two point shooter.

Clearly, his skills are in decline. He can hit the standstill three, but he can't do much else at all. Then again, the Hornets need Peterson to literally do only two things: (1) make open threes and (2) perimeter defense.

Mo has looked awful to start the year because both those things, arguably, haven't been there. In terms of defense, images of Rodrigue Beaubois blowing by him on four consecutive possessions still lingers in my mind. But in a relative sense, who else do we have defensively? James Posey has lost a step on the perimeter; leaving him on small forwards and power forwards is easily our best bet moving forward. I'm more than willing to give Peterson some more time to evaluate his defense. The three point shooting? He's been poor; however, it's 5 games, and it certainly looks like statistically insignificant.

In the 9 years prior this season, Mo's three point percentage has never deviated outside of the 30-40% range. It hasn't come close to the low end since a poor third season in the league. Basketball Prospectus' projection system has him very similar to last year. Basically, it's too early to say that Mo has lost his three point shot; in fact, all signs point to the contrary. It's the one aspect of his game he's kept as he ages, and the one aspect he's likely to keep for a while longer.

The moral of the story: Morris Peterson may be done as an average basketball player, but in the role the Hornets have created for him, he still has value. The numbers say his shot will recover, without much doubt. His contract runs till 2011, and the two aspects of his game we utilize most- shooting and perimeter defending- will remain until then. Off the bench, the value of both those things plummets. He no longer has Chris Paul to create threes for him, and his perimeter defense is inherently less valuable if he guards the opposition's bench.

I'm all for Marcus Thornton getting minutes (as Byron has alluded to recently). From a relative value added sense though, I think it makes more sense to bring Thornton off the bench. From what we've seen of him at LSU, he doesn't need Chris Paul as much as Mo does. And Mo is the far safer defensive bet at this point. Essentially, Thornton can (potentially) do things off the bench that Mo cannot; on the flip side, Thornton's creative ability is diminished as the fifth starter.

Projecting Mo's future is tough; defending his recent play is even tougher. For all his struggles though, there still isn't a better fifth starter option on this roster.

More photos » by Jesse D. Garrabrant - NBAE/Getty Images

15 days ago: EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - NOVEMBER 4: Carmelo Anthony #15 of the Denver Nuggets shoots against Josh Boone #2 of the New Jersey Nets during the game on November 4, 2009 at the Izod Center in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)

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This should be the first in a weekly series documenting prominent stories in our conference.

Carmelo Anthony

Carmelo Anthony started his first 4 games ridiculously hot, before shooting 8-24 last night. It's ridiculously early, but he's drawn plenty of potential MVP talk nonetheless. A 31.1 PER, 36.2% usage, and 32 ppg will do that for you (well, unless you're Chris Paul, in which case it will earn you this). It's rather easy to see that Melo's base numbers are pretty unsustainable and a product of a small sample size. 47% three point shooting by a career 30% shooter. 12 trips to the line per 36 minutes vs. an average 8. A turnover rate slashed in half. Simple probability dictates that Melo will come down to Earth. But interestingly, his Nuggets team may truly be as good as they're playing. Chauncey and Nene have picked up where they left off. And like everyone but GM's predicted, Ty Lawson has been stellar.

Artest on the Lakers

I don't care that the Lakers have 4 wins in 5 games; they can't be happy with their play thus far. The offense has been downright mediocre, with offensive rebounding the only thing holding it up. Now Pau Gasol is out, but a team with Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom, and Ron Artest playing marginally better offense than the Clippers? They've squeaked by the Hawks, Thunder, Rockets, and Hawks, with a convincing loss to Dallas mixed in. And the initial returns on Ron Artest? Not good, despite what ESPN and everyone else wants you to believe. The one, monumental question all offseason was how Artest's efficiency would adapt, with a lower usage rate. Right now, he has the lowest usage rate of his career (16.3%), almost ten (!) percent lower than last season. And, huh, his PER has also plummeted to the lowest of his career by far. I assume Gasol's return will only serve to take further possessions from Ron. Yes, this is only 5 games, but Artest is not Ariza, no matter how much L.A. tries to stuff him into that role.

Steve Nash

Steve Nash is surprising a lot of people with the way he ages. He's still shooting and passing extremely effectively. As Hornet fans, I think we'll never truly appreciate Nash's game. Much of that is because we have a point guard who's way better than him, but has 2 fewer MVP's. So that bitterness will always persist. But Nash is playing basketball at a level that no 35 year old should be able to.. and minus Shaq, the Suns are actually watchable again.

Houston

The NBA statistical community has long had one very unsettled debate- what exactly is the value of shot creation? Everyone realizes that unefficient players could very well be undervalued by figures like PER, because shot creation is very much a basketball skill, in the style of speed or court vision. Everybody realizes that shot creation is valuable, but how valuable is another question altogether. In light of that debate, Daryl Morey has concocted the perfect test tube in Texas- a collection of high efficiency, lower usage (and lower shot creation) players. With Tracy McGrady out, this effect is just exacerbated. As Houston continues to force feed Ariza into taking shots, it's becoming more and more clear that Ariza is no #1 option. It's early, but the initial returns on Houston's experiment look positive. They've played the Lakers to within a point, played Portland close, and also beaten them, Golden State, and Utah.

Houston really isn't your typical anonymous team; their play this year could really change the way teams are constructed. Their first five have not disappointed.

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But... he sat out my legendary preseason!

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As I alluded to in the last post, four games is a tiny sampling of the NBA season. But we have to be thrilled with Okafor thus far.

A quick glance at his statistics indicates he's been playing at a high level. Duh. More interestingly, he hasn't done anything totally exceptional or unsustainable in four games.

For example, he's shot well from the floor. 54.5% from the field is pretty good, but it's less than his career high of 56.1% last year. It's also right on line with 53.5% the year before and 53.2% the year before that. Basically, 54.5% is where Emeka should be around for the year.

He's converting on 83% of free throw attempts... about 23% higher than his career rate. So that won't stand up. However, his true shooting has remained similar to last year's since he's going to the line less. So the unsustainable free throw percentage is basically a wash, not affecting his overall performance.

His offensive rebound rate- 11.2%- is .7% below his career. His defensive rebound rate is 29%, 4% higher than his career rate. But with David West's pathetic attempt at "rebounding," Okafor figures to have plenty of defensive rebounding chances.

Basically, the jump in Okafor's overall numbers (PER, etc.) may or may not be sustained through the season. It's four games. But breaking down his performance into component pieces suggests that there's nothing flukey about Okafor so far. Knock on wood that he stays healthy. But he's only going to get better with Chris Paul- I feel he's been mostly doing his own thing offensively... as he starts to play off Paul, he should only improve.

Emeka Okafor has been excellent, and we have no indications that that's going to change.