The Bobcats haven't been playing well recently. We know this. But all is not lost. We can still see playoff basketball in Charlotte this year. The path to victory is fraught with danger, but, barring a signing of the 16'9" Kobe, we knew that, too.
Let's go with a few assumptions about how the rest of the season will play out. Assume that everyone except the Lakers will be playing hard the rest of the way for seeding purposes. Assume Detroit will get enough people back to pull back ahead of the scrum for the eighth seed. Assume no more major injuries.
===
Suppose the Bucks:
LOSE at Orlando
LOSE at Miami
WIN at New Jersey
WIN vs. LA Lakers
LOSE at Philadelphia
WIN vs. Memphis
LOSE vs. Atlanta
WIN vs. Oklahoma City
LOSE vs. Orlando
LOSE at Indiana
They would finish the season with a record of 35-47.
===
Suppose the Pacers:
LOSE at Chicago
WIN vs. Washington
WIN vs. Chicago
LOSE vs. San Antonio
WIN at Oklahoma City
WIN vs. Toronto
LOSE at Atlanta
LOSE vs. Detroit
LOSE vs. Cleveland
WIN vs. Milwaukee
They would finish the season with a record of 36-46.
===
Suppose the Bulls:
WIN vs. Indiana
WIN at Toronto
LOSE at Indiana
LOSE vs. New Jersey
WIN vs. New York
LOSE vs. Philadelphia
LOSE vs. Charlotte
LOSE at Detroit
and WIN vs. Toronto
They would finish the season with a record of 39-43.
===
And suppose the Bobcats:
LOSE at Philadelphia
WIN vs. New York
WIN vs. LA Lakers
LOSE at Boston
LOSE vs. Miami
WIN at Detroit
WIN vs. Philadelphia
WIN at Oklahoma City
WIN at Chicago
WIN at New Jersey
WIN at Orlando
They will finish with a record of 39-43, with Orlando deciding who makes the playoffs by sitting their starters, because the Cats own the tiebreaker over the Bulls.
===
So, you can see where the margin for error is. They've got to protect their house, defending home court. That means beating the Bulls heads up and beating the Lakers as it gets in their heads that these last few games don't really matter to them. And they've got to sneak at least one road win against a superior team. The best chance for that will come against the stumbling Pistons.
Tonight, against Philadelphia, the Bobcats have to get back to their formula for success. It's great when Gerald goes off for 25 and 13, but it all goes for naught when the other four starters don't produce, because Charlotte doesn't have an anchor or two who can always be counted upon to lift everyone else up with them. They have more to lose when one of the starters goes down than teams who rely on one guy as the foundation and everyone else as more or less a buttress that allows that guy to prosper. With the Bobcats, the starters are each a pillar of the structure, and when one goes weak, the edifice loses integrity.