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Prospecticon Says: Jrue Holiday

We all want to look smart. It's the driving principle behind every get rich quick scam: Instead of letting your money do its work in the markets over forty years, the victims give in to temptation and aim to accelerate the process through a magical formula that no one else seems to have discovered, yet. The forty year process is boring, but it works. The scam holds the promise of bypassing the boredom and looking smarter than everyone else.

So it goes with whichever team drafts Jrue Holiday. Let's say that team hits the jackpot, and he's the next Dwyane Wade. The scouting department will look like geniuses. Ben Howland will look like an idiot. And I'll find myself explaining to other people that picking Holiday was, given the publicly available information, probably a poor decision, even though the outcome turned out well for that team.

Marvin Williams has turned into a pretty good NBA player even though he played limited minutes in his season at North Carolina. However, there isn't much of a track record of guys with who were drafted in the lottery even though they didn't even start for their amateur teams, primarily because NBA prospects have to dominate the lower levels in order to become a prospect.

Holiday was a highly touted prep recruit who went to one of the nation's elite programs, only to find that he wasn't exactly playing 40 minutes per game, so his path to the pros is similar to Williams's. The thing is, Williams had a much greater impact on his team's games, and produced more than Holiday did at UCLA in fewer minutes. Granted, UNC played a faster pace, but Holiday's percentages are worrisome. If he hopes to be a two-guard in the league, he'll have to show that he'll continue to get to the hoop off the dribble, and that his shot is better than 31% from three and 73% from the free throw line.

On the Bobcats, he'd get the tough assignment of playing as an undersized off guard most of the time, but he'd get his chances to bring the ball up the floor with Augustin working off the ball, or when Augustin is resting. In theory, I'd like a guy with that kind of offensive versatility, but defense would be an issue, and we've got to believe there's a more suitable, proven, player out there available late in the lottery.