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BDL Mock Draft; Adios, Sean May; Jay Bilas Chooses Williams Over Henderson

I have three Bobcats links for your reading pleasure, today. First, here's the short writeup I did for the Ball Don't Lie mock draft.

The logical pick that won't elicit a refrain of 'MJ being MJ' is Gerald Henderson. The Dukie would be slated to step in as the backup off-guard behind Raja Bell this season, and then take over as DJ Augustin's backcourt mate next.

Then there's the news that Sean May won't get a qualifying offer. If you want to give up on May, I'd be fine with that, but I'd much rather keep him than keep Felton. Seriously, dude has real talent that Felton's never shown. He'll get more than the minimum to be some other team's role player and work on staying healthy.

And, finally, there's this nugget from Jay Bilas quoted below, both via Rick Bonnell.

I respect that Jay Bilas isn't one of those "Be true to your school'' zealots. So I wasn't surprised Monday when he said he'd pick Louisville's Terrence Williams over Duke's Gerald Henderson.

Mad props to Bonnell for referring to the college uber alles crowd as zealots. I like, I like. I also appreciate that Bonnell has passed on a bit of logic from Bilas with which I disagree. Here's why:

As hinted at in the BDL paragraphs, I tend to defer to the consensus holding that Gerald Henderson might be the Best Player Available in addition to being the best player to Fill A Need. He's not the BPA because he has the "highest ceiling", but because he's better than Terrence Williams, Chase Budinger, and all the non-SGs right now. Consensus, again, is that he will contribute more to his NBA team in his rookie season than those guys, especially on defense, which is his strength.

That said, there are still plenty of people who insist they can tell if Player A will be better in the future than Player B will be, even though Player B is better right now. I refuse to believe anyone's ability to do that in basketball, where the highest amateur level is one and a half steps down from the highest pro level. Without any studies or data to back up either side of the issue, why does it make sense that a talking head can tell which player will be better in four years with any accuracy? Doesn't it make sense that it'd be easier to determine who's better now and then hope that holds over time?