2017-18 statistics: 11.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists per game. 42.9 percent FG%, 38.0 3PT%.
After failing to turn the curve in his third season in the NBA, Frank Kaminsky will look forward to his senior season to turn things around in what will be the final year of his rookie deal.
I think we can now say that Kaminsky has fallen short of our expectations for him when he was drafted. As a former top 10 pick, he ideally would have breached the starting lineup by now yet has clearly failed to do so.
This would make sense if we were a stable team and maybe had a solidified starter at the power forward position, but neither of those are the case. While Marvin Williams is cool, he would be even cooler bringing his talents to the second unit.
Where Kaminsky struggled this season — and in previous seasons — is inconsistency. Everyone knows what Kaminsky is capable of, we have surely seen his flashes. Kaminsky showcases his scoring ability once a month by dropping 20+ points in a game then goes quiet for a couple games before dropping 15 points. He is the unstreakiest streakiest scorer on this team, maybe in the league. The only place he saw significant improvement was from beyond the arc, where he raised his 3-point percentage to 38, up from 32.8 the season before.
That said, I am not confident that we will see a significant stride from Kaminsky next season. Kaminsky is 25 at the end of his third season and typically by that age you can at the very least gauge how effective a player will be.
This isn’t to say its not possible, there’s a route to his example. He can take a look at Ryan Anderson, a fellow stretch four power forward, who was drafted with the 21st pick in the 2008 draft, was in his sixth year when he turned 25 and was averaging almost 20 points per game (in a year that was cut short due to injury).
Obviously, it is highly doubtful that Kaminsky will be averaging 20 ppg next season, but if we look at Anderson’s stats, he jumped from 10 points per game in his third season (11 for Kaminsky) to 16 per game in his fourth. That is exactly the type of jump we will need from the big man in the 2018-19 season.
Consistent scoring isn’t the only place where we’ll need to see improvement. Kaminsky has struggled to be a successful rebounder and defender so far during his time in the NBA. During the past season Kaminsky averaged 3.6 rebounds per game which was good to be 8th best on the team.
You could argue that Dwight Howard grabbing so many boards is a good reason for that stat, but if we go back to our friend Ryan Anderson, who also played with Dwight Howard in that 16 points per game season we talked about earlier, averaged a solid 7.7 rebounds per game which was a jump from 5.5 in his previous year (Dwight reeled in 14.5 then and 12.5 this season).
It’s possible for Kaminsky to make these jumps and improvements. Kaminsky obviously isn’t a exact clone of Ryan Anderson and may never mirror the stats that Anderson has been able to put up, but at the very least its a marker that could be set for him.
Also I don't know the exact stats on this, but I'm 83 percent certain that headband Frank is more productive than no headband Frank. So, where the headband more often, Frank.