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NBA Draft Lottery primer and open thread

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Time to watch a man open oversized envelopes.

2017 NBA Draft Lottery Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images

What: 2021 NBA Draft Lottery

When: 8:30 pm EDT

How to watch: ESPN

Tonight’s NBA Draft Lottery has massive implications on the futures of many franchises. Last year we saw how a fortuitous bouncing of ping pong balls can alter the long term trajectory of a franchise when the Charlotte Hornets jumped up from eighth to third, giving them the opportunity to draft LaMelo Ball. They had just a 19% chance of cracking the top three, and hitting on those odds has landed them a franchise-altering star that has already added a Rookie of the Year award to his accolades.

Narrowly missing out on the playoffs means the Hornets repeating that success is far less likely, but it’s not impossible. Here’s the breakout of their lottery odds:

1st: 1.8%
2nd: 2.0%
3rd: 2.2%
4th: 2.5%
Top 4: 8.5%

11th: 77.6%
12th: 17.9%

The only way the Hornets fall below 11th is if one of the three lottery teams behind them jumps up to the top four.

If you’re new to this, here’s what we want to happen tonight—Mark Tatum will read the draft order in reverse starting from 14. We want the first three teams to be the Warriors, Pacers, and Spurs. That means that no team has jumped ahead of the Hornets.

If all goes chalk, the Hornets should be the next team named after the Spurs (picking 11th). If Tatum skips past the Hornets after he says the Spurs, that means the Hornets have jumped into the top four once again and we can all rejoice in the streets.

You can use this space to talk about all the action as it happens live.

This is now an open thread!